One division has already been clinched, and several others could be clinched in the next few days. The playoff chase is in full swing, which means there are several games of note on today's 16-game slate.
Our MLB betting systems and experts have dug into the latest MLB odds and found the best value on the board for today's games, so let's dig in and check out their MLB picks.
Today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 p.m. | |
  | 6:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Braves vs Nationals Best Bet
By Sean Paul
None of the potential Braves pitching plans excites me, but I'll gladly fade Cole Irvin. He's been an easy fade for two months, and I don't see a reason to change that now.
The Braves' offense is also much better than their numbers. Their talent is well ahead of what the numbers say, so I imagine they could feast on a bad pitcher, like Irvin.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-145)
| | | | |
Bet Labs' Athletics vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Bet Labs
The "Wind Whisper Unders" system is built to target MLB totals where weather and market signals align quietly, but consistently toward the under. It targets regular-season games from 2020 through 2025 where the closing total falls between 7 and 10 runs — a middle range that allows for variance, but avoids extremes. This strategy homes in on games with a specific weather profile: wind blowing from left, in from right, or straight in, with speeds between 3-15 miles per hour. Combined with moderate temperatures between 30 and 70 degrees, these environmental conditions help suppress deep fly balls without overly skewing the market.
Line movement also plays a role as the total must have dropped by up to 2.5 runs from open to close, signaling steady downward pressure from sharp bettors. Importantly, the public is not fully behind the under — support remains modest, falling between 1 and 55%. This indicates market resistance and helps ensure the number isn’t over-adjusted. By aligning downward line moves, cooling weather patterns, and under-the-radar betting splits, the system consistently identifies games where offense is subtly — but significantly — less likely to break out.
Overall, this system has produced a 14% ROI as it has cashed 60% of its picks (506-339-45). This season, this system is hitting at a 58% rate (121-88-7) and has generated a 10% ROI.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-107)
| | | | |
Tony Sartori's Padres vs Mets Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Through 50 combined plate appearances against Clay Holmes, this current San Diego roster boasts a .349 batting average, .512 slugging percentage and a .414 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Meanwhile, this current New York roster has a .213 batting average, .404 slugging percentage and .309 wOBA through 53 combined plate appearances against Michael King.
The only reason the price is so low on the Padres is that the Mets are far stronger at home than San Diego is on the road. That said, those trends do not offset the aforementioned variables.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+100)
| | | | |
Prop Model's Padres vs Mets Best Bet
By Prop Model
The strikeouts prop for Clay Holmes looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 3.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 59.21% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 7.03% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.
Pick: Clay Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
| | | | |
Bet Labs' Phillies vs Dodgers Best Bet
By Bet Labs
Both teams have solid win percentages (51%-100%), but the public is heavily favoring the over (≤35% under bets). In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals due to perceived offensive capability. However, these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution, which leads to a profitable edge on the under.
Overall, this system has hit 55% of its picks (1321-1071-92) and has produced an 8% ROI.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
| | | | |
