A new week in Major League Baseball is upon us, and this Monday brings with it 11 games spread out across the evening.
Our analysts are all over this slate, with five bets to recommend across four games, including picks on Red Sox vs. Orioles, Marlins vs. Braves, Tigers vs. Brewers and Cardinals vs. Giants.
Here are our best bets for the MLB slate on Monday, April 24th.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Monday, April 24 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox F5 ML -117  |
I know Chris Sale’s first three starts were disasters and I understand that one of those starts came against the Orioles, but his last start against the Twins was vintage Sale. He allowed three hits, one run and struck out 11.
What he did in that start against Minnesota was throw his slider 43% of the time. In his start against the Orioles he only threw it 21% of the time. His command was also way off and looked much better in that start against Minnesota. His slider through a little over 100 pitches already is garnering a whiff rate over 40%.
Dean Kremer will be on the mound for Baltimore and if you think Sale has been bad with an xERA over five, Kremer has been significantly worse with an xERA at 6.86. This is a pitcher who vastly outperformed his expected metrics last season, as his actual ERA was 3.23, but his xERA was 4.49. He faced Sale on that April 1st game in Boston and was only able to last three innings, giving up six hits and five runs.
Kremer has one above-average pitch in his arsenal, his cutter, which had a Stuff+ rating of 104. Every other pitch is significantly below average, which is the reason why his Stuff+ rating was only 94 last year. This season, he’s throwing his fastball more than 45% of the time, which is a change from last season when he was more reliant on that cutter. So far, his fastball has allowed a .427 xwOBA and .334 xwOBA.
Dating back to the start of last season, the Red Sox have a +29.9 run value against right-handed fastballs and a +20.6 run value against right-handed cutters.
I have the Red Sox and Sale projected at -143 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -117.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML -117
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Monday, April 24 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8 (+100) |
By Alex Hinton
Over their past five games, the Baltimore Orioles have allowed just three runs. While that is great, they faced the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers, who are both bottom five in runs scored per game. Tonight, they face the Boston Red Sox, who are third in MLB in runs per game.
Dean Kremer will get the ball for the Orioles and he is coming off 6 2/3 scoreless innings against Washington. However, Kremer allowed four runs in five innings or fewer in his first three starts, including five against Boston on April 1st. Kremer is 0-4 with a 7.76 ERA in six career starts against Boston. Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers are among the Boston hitters with strong track records against him.
Chris Sale will oppose Kremer for Boston as he did a few weeks back. In that start, Boston tagged him for seven runs and three home runs in three innings. Sale still is working to lower his 8.00 ERA because of that start. Sale walked six against the Orioles and he has walked at least two batters in every start this season. With a 1.67 WHIP, Sale will likely have a lot of traffic on the basepaths and Baltimore will have to capitalize.
There were 17 combined runs in the first Sale-Kremer matchup, which continued a trend between these AL East rivals. The over went 3-0 in the first series on opening weekend and each game had at least 14 runs. Dating back to last season, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings.
Boston ranks 26th in team ERA (5.10) and that is a contributing factor to the over being 16-7 in its games this season. I expect another over to hit tonight.
Pick: Over 8 (+100)
Marlins vs. Braves
Monday, April 24 7:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Under 4.5 (-130) |
It’s never settling to back an under when the Atlanta Braves are playing, but this NL East bout features two pitchers with incredibly high ceilings and is a great opportunity to buy low on Edward Cabrera.
Control is a constant issue for the 25-year-old righty and he’s walked 16 batters in 17 2/3 innings. But he’s walked just three batters over the last 11 and his xERA (3.57) suggests positive regression.
Cabrera does everything you want in a pitcher aside from occasional control issues. His xBA is down at .192 and he’s halved his barrel rate (4.2%) from last season. He generates plenty of swings and misses and has tweaked his arsenal slightly, which has led to an improvement across the board.
Rather than mixing in five pitches, Cabrera has all but erased his slider and sinker. Instead, he’s throwing his fastball nearly 13% of the time more and sticking to a three-pitch mix of changeup, fastball and curveball.
Pair him with Spencer Strider and I love the first five under tonight. Strider has planted himself firmly among MLB’s best starting pitchers. His strikeout rate is above 40% and he has an incredible .177 xBA and .264 xSLG.
Strider has a top five percent whiff rate and draws a great matchup with a Marlins offense that ranks 21st in wRC+. He can have walk issues from time to time, but the Marlins rarely walk (26th in BB%).
These are two pitchers that I have high expectations for this season and it’s a great opportunity to buy Cabrera and back an under alongside Strider’s excellence.
I would back the F5 under 4.5 to (-130) or under 4 to (-110).
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-130)
Tigers vs. Brewers
Monday, April 24 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-126)  |
By Nick Shlain
The Detroit Tigers are dead-last in all of baseball in runs per game (3.11) entering Monday, so what I’m about to recommend might surprise you.
Baseball is a matchup sport, and the best teams can lose to the worst teams on any given day. One of my favorite bets on the slate Monday is for the Tigers to go over their team total of 3.5 runs.
Detroit is going up against Milwaukee starter Colin Rea, who has a career 4.85 ERA. This season, his ERA is 4.22 after two starts, but his xERA is 4.91 and his xFIP is 5.22. Rea has a career 18% strikeout percentage and my projections have him with just a 16% strikeout percentage for the rest of this season.
The Tigers don’t have the most powerful lineup, but Nick Maton, Kerry Carpenter, Zack McKinstry and Eric Haase all have at least a .176 ISO against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
My projections have the Tigers scoring close to five runs in this game making this a nice value as we only need four runs to cover this low number.
Pick: Tigers Team Total Over 3.5 (-126)
Cardinals vs. Giants
Monday, April 24 9:45 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Under 4.5 (-120)  |
By Jim Turvey
Jordan Montgomery and Alex Cobb square off on Monday at Oracle Park in San Francisco in what I expect to be a low-scoring affair, especially through the first five innings.
These are two pitchers I am high on in general, but the matchups make this even more appealing.
For Montgomery, he has a 4.84 ERA this season, but his 2.88 FIP paints a much more stable picture, as one rough start his last time out (where his velocity was no worse) inflated that ERA significantly.
But really this is about the matchup. The Giants have one of the biggest splits in baseball this season in terms of pitcher-handedness, with a 120 wRC+ against righties that plummets to almost half that (68 wRC+) versus southpaws.
On the flip side of the matchup, Alex Cobb was a pitcher I was so high on before the season that I included him among my Cy Young longshots. So far this season, while he hasn't gone deep into many starts, the run suppression has been there, with a 2.79 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. He also draws the Cardinals in their far inferior handedness split, as the Cards have continued to be world beaters against lefties (152 wRC+), but much more earthbound (109 wRC+) against righties.
Add in a chilly game-time temp that should suppress home runs, and I would play this down to -115 under 4 even.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
