Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, August 21.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Brewers vs. Cubs, Dodgers vs. Rockies, and Astros vs. Orioles. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, August 21
Brewers vs. Cubs
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -110o / -110u | -135 |
RHP Quinn Priester (MIL) vs. LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC)
We’re expecting double-digit breezes coming in from center field at Wrigley on Thursday, alongside a pitcher-friendly umpire (Dan Merzel).
Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has posted much more respectable metrics over the past month (3.56 xFIP, 24.5% K-BB), and he always performs much better with the wind blowing in, given his heavy fly-ball profile (career 49.4% FB, 1.47 HR/9 allowed).
I project 6.43 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 7 (-110 | Play to -115)
Dodgers vs. Rockies
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -125 | 12 -110o / -110u | -285 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +105 | 12 -110o / -110u | +230 |
LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs. RHP Chase Dollander (COL)
Shohei Ohtani was ruled out of this series finale after taking a line drive off the leg during Wednesday’s game.
The market never adjusted despite the news, and I think that’s where I’m finding most of the edge for this game.
I project the Dodgers ML at -211 with Ohtani and at -180 without him.
For what it’s worth, the Rockies fit one of our Action PRO Betting Systems:
Home dogs fitting this system have amassed a +6.6% ROI since 2005.
Pick: Rockies ML (+235 | Play to +200)
Astros vs. Orioles
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9 -105o / -115u | -110 |
RHP Jason Alexander (HOU) vs. RHP Brandon Young (BAL)
The Astros' lineup is banged up and struggling to score, posting an 85 wRC+ over the past month (second-to-last in MLB during the stretch).
Orioles starter Brandon Young faced the Astros six days ago, carrying a perfect game into the 8th inning.
His results (5.68 ERA) should continue to push toward his underlying indicators (4.21 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 3.97 botERA). He has a useful splitter (101 Stuff+) and curveball (100 Stuff+), although he struggles against lefties. Lucky for him, the injury-riddled Astros have only one lefty worth worrying about (Jesus Sanchez).
The wind is expected to be blowing in from left field on Thursday at around six to seven MPH, and I project this total at 8.1.
Pick: Under 9 (-108 | Play to -120)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 21
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- Athletics ML (-102 | Play to -110)
- Royals ML (-110 | Play to -115)
- Rockies ML (+235 | Play to +200)
- Mets ML (-134 | Play to -140)
- Yankees ML (-135 | Play to -145)
- Padres F5 ML (-150 | Play to -165)
- Brewers vs. Cubs Under 7 (-110 | Play to -115)
- Dodgers vs. Rockies Under 12 (-113 | Play to 11.5 -105)
- Giants vs. Padres Under 8 (-108 | Play to -118)
- Astros vs. Orioles Under 9 (-108 | Play to -120)
