Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday, April 17.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Thursday MLB predictions and picks.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, April 17
  |   |   |
Guardians vs. Orioles
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | -122 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -122o / 102u | +102 |
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
Tomoyuki Sugano — a two-time Sawamura Award Winner (the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young) and three-time Central League MVP — wasn't expected to perform as anything better than a back-end starter at the MLB level in the late stages of his professional career.
His rest-of-season FIP projections (projected FIP range of 4.79 to 5.08) align more closely with his xERA (5.90), xFIP (5.54) or botERA (4.79) as opposed to his 3.86 ERA.
Sugano throws at least six pitches (splitter, cutter, four-seamer, slider, sinker, curveball), only using the splitter more than 21% of the time. Sugano's slider (109 Stuff+) is his only above-average offering by stuff models; otherwise, he has below-average stuff (92 Stuff+), and he's shown slightly below-average command (99 Location+).
The latter part of that statement is far more surprising — Sugano is a strike thrower who posted a minuscule 2.6% walk rate in Japan last season (16 walks in 156 2/3 innings). Still, he might be nibbling more against MLB hitters, whom he finds harder to strike out.
Tanner Bibee appears to have taken a step back (4.74 xERA, 5.31 xFIP, 4.34 botERA, 4.8% K-BB%) after a solid 2024 campaign (3.75 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 3.68 botERA, 20.1% K-BB%).
His velocity is only down a half tick, but stuff models hate the shape of his fastball (81 Stuff+) relative to last year (92 Stuff+). His overall pitch modeling profile is down (from 103 Stuff+, 100 Location+, and 99 Pitching+ to 98, 93, and 94, respectively) relative to last season.
Bibee exchanged his curveball (109 Stuff+, 10% usage, .309 xwOBA in 2024) for a potentially less effective cutter (89 Stuff+, 18% usage, two homers and a .666 xwOBA against in a limited sample), and I'm curious if he keeps throwing the new pitch.
Conditions in Baltimore on Thursday should be neutral — 65 degrees at first pitch with a 2-3 mph cross-breeze. I projected the total at 9.23 runs; bet the Over to 9 (+100).
I give the Guardians, who used their "B" bullpen in a blowout loss on Tuesday, the pitching advantage for this contest featuring a matchup between two top-10 (if not top-five) relief units.
Still, I strongly prefer Baltimore's offense (projected 122 wRC+ vs. righties, vs. 111 vs. Cleveland), particularly if Jackson Holliday is going to produce out of the nine hole:
With their top starting pitchers on the IL, the Orioles must win slugfests to stay in playoff contention.
I projected their moneyline at -114, and set the total at 9.23 runs; bet the Orioles to -105 and the Over to 9 (+100).
Picks: Orioles Moneyline (bet to -105) | Over 8.5 (bet to 9, +100)
| | |
Royals vs. Tigers
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Michael Lorenzen (KC) vs. Reese Olson (DET)
Reese Olson (6.00 ERA, 4.65 xERA, 7.5% K-BB%) hasn't performed well across three starts in 2025. But his velocity (95 mph, up from 94.2 mph) and pitch modeling metrics (95 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 97 Pitching+, 4.16 botERA vs. 93, 99, 93, 5.01 last season) stand at career-best levels, and he's been an effective starter (3.64 xERA in 2024, career 3.82 xFIP) before this season.
Projections (FIP range of 3.84 to 4.12) expect Olson to pitch toward those averages as a slightly better-than-average starting pitcher the rest of the way.
Michael Lorenzen (projected FIP range of 4.51 to 4.70) both projects and has lesser career baseline than Olson (career 4.41 xFIP, 4.59 xERA in 2024) — ranking as a No. 4 or No. 5 starting pitcher.
Lorenzen probably doesn't throw his sinker (106 Stuff+, 17% usage) or slider (106 Stuff+, 13% usage) as much as he should. He prefers a more expansive arsenal, with at least six pitches, only using his four-seam fastball (28%) more than 17% of the time.
Command will drive Lorenzen's effectiveness, and both his command metrics and pitch modeling metrics stand at career-best marks (109 Location+ 102 Pitching+, 3.73 botERA, 5.6% walk rate) through three starts.
The "A" bullpens for both teams are also well-rested.
The Yankees swept the Royals in the Bronx, and the Tigers dropped consecutive games in Milwaukee, by margins of 5-0 and 5-1. The Royals' offense has also really struggled, posting a 67 wRC+ (28th), alongside a .276 OBP (28th) and a .588 OPS (28th), with the fewest home runs (10) of any team in the league.
Conditions on Thursday in Detroit should suppress offense; 60 degrees at first pitch but with a real-feel of 51 degrees, and 10 mph winds blowing in from center field. This lowers my total from roughly 8.2 to 7.35 runs.
I played the Under at open (at 8.5), but would take that bet down to 8 (-115) given my projection.
It's a good reminder to follow me in the Action App. That 8.5 was gone quickly after I logged the bet and entered the notification on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to 8, -115)
| | |
Yankees vs. Rays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +163 | 9.5 110o / -132u | +100 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 9.5 110o / -132u | -118 |
Will Warren (NYY) vs. Taj Bradley (TB)
Despite posting an 8.35 ERA through his first 36 MLB innings, Will Warren has shown substantial promise.
