Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, May 2.
MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 2)
Rockies vs. Marlins
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -146 | 8 +100o / -122u | +154 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8 +100o / -122u | -184 |
Peter Lambert vs. Edward Cabrera
Offensively, the Rockies have been slightly more competent against righties (81 wRC+) than lefties (73 wRC+) this season — very similar marks to last year (80 and 74, respectively)
Edward Cabrera's improved strikeout rate (31.3%) through three starts may be an aberration. His called-strike plus whiff rate (34%) is up compared to last season (28.4%), but his swinging strike rate is down (11.7%, down from 12.1%). Batters have been a bit too patient, and Cabrera has capitalized with an additional 6% in called-strike rate.
Perhaps his opponents have been fooled by a modified pitch mix. Cabrera has dialed back his fastball usage (19.6% vs. 26% career) and increased both his changeup (+8.6%) and slider usage (+5.6%) relative to last season.
Colorado will use Peter Lambert to turn over the order once before handing the game to their relatively well-rested bullpen (the team had Monday off).
Miami's bullpen is a bit more fatigued; they've been playing since last Friday, exhausted their pen in an extra-innings game on Tuesday and closer Tanner Scott has pitched three games in a row.
Bet: Rockies Moneyline (+145 or better)
Yankees vs. Orioles
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 -115o / -105u | -134 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 -115o / -105u | +114 |
Carlos Rodon vs. TBD
Just as Baltimore gets John Means and Kyle Bradish back from the IL, Grayson Rodriguez goes down with shoulder inflammation.
The Orioles didn't announce their starter for Thursday's game overnight. Baltimore activated Means on Wednesday, but Bradish is also a possibility after starting Friday in Triple-A (5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 Ks on 77 pitches).
The righty has a significantly higher ceiling (projected FIP range of 3.78 to 3.91) after posting a 3.77 ERA and 3.53 xFIP last season. He pummels hitters with his elite slider (171 Stuff+), one of baseball's best pitches.
Screw it.
Here's every strikeout Kyle Bradish got on his slider in 2023. pic.twitter.com/JaNMOOwlvJ
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) February 8, 2024
Bradish also has an above-average fastball and curveball, and he ranked third with a 126 Stuff+ among 127 pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings last season.
If Bradish starts this game, I'd make the matchup a true coin flip (+100) and bet Baltimore at +109 or better.
If Means (projected FIP range of 4.50 to 4.52; career 4.90 xFIP) starts for Baltimore instead of Bradish, I would project the Orioles as roughly +117 underdogs (46.1% implied) and would need at least +127 (44% implied) to back the home team.
Bet: Orioles Full-Game Moneyline (+109 or better with Bradish; +127 or better with Means)
Cubs vs. Mets
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
Ben Brown vs. Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser looks like he's dealing with an injury or a mechanical issue. In all five starts this season, he has permitted as many — or more — walks as strikeouts (16 BB, 14 K in 23 2/3 IP) while carrying a 6.59 xERA and a 6.04 xFIP.
Surprisingly, his Stuff+ rating has improved, particularly on his changeup (111 Stuff+), but his command has declined significantly (104 to 98 Location+), and he's been dancing through danger in most of those innings.
He had a decent amount of success last season despite declining fastball velocity. Perhaps Houser has reached the point of no return after continuing to slip:
Ben Brown has similar command issues but a much livelier arm — 110 Stuff+ (132 changeup, 108 knuckle-curve) — to pitch himself out of trouble.
Projections (projected FIP range of 3.77 to 4.05) are also very high on Brown compared to Houser (projected range of 4.49 to 4.66). However, I see a decent edge for the Mets bullpen on Thursday.
I projected the Cubs as -115 favorites for the first five innings (F5) but would set the Mets as slight favorites for the full game. Stick with a first-half wager on Chicago.
Bet: Cubs F5 Moneyline (-105 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, May 2
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
- Chicago Cubs F5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
- Colorado Rockies (+154, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +145)
