Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, June 13.
MLB Predictions Thursday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 13)
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8.5 -128o / 104u | +134 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -128o / 104u | -158 |
Patrick Corbin (WAS) vs. Casey Mize (DET)
I probably don't have to keep convincing you to bet against Patrick Corbin, who has 57 losses over the past four seasons — 16 more than any other pitcher. If you bet against Corbin as an underdog on the first five innings (F5) moneyline in every game over that span, you'd have a 67.5% win rate (56-27-6) and a 4.3% ROI.
Corbin's fastball velocity (91.5 mph) is at its lowest point over the past four years — down an entire tick compared to the 2021 and 2022 seasons — and his strikeout rate has fallen to a career-low 13.8%, the second-lowest lowest among 72 qualified starters. His expected ERA (xERA) has been north of six in the past three seasons (6.91, 6.16, 6.41), and we'll only have so many more opportunities to bet against him.
However, I'd urge caution, risking too much against him with Casey Mize, who was a bet-on pitcher for me in April before struggling in May and June (6.09 ERA, 6% K-BB%).
He has encouraging pitch modeling metrics (107 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 102 Pitching+), including an above-average fastball (107), slider (106) and splitter (116), and I expected to see the strikeouts come as he pitched further into the season.
However, Mize's Stuff+ has dipped to 102 (105 slider, 105 fastball, 94 splitter), alongside lesser command over the past 30 days.
Bets: Tigers F5 Moneyline (-160 or better) | Tigers Full-Game Moneyline (-145 or better)
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -108 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -108 |
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. Lance Lynn (STL)
Thursday's weather at Busch Stadium (90 degrees with nine mph winds blowing out to left field) seems potentially disastrous for Lance Lynn, who has managed to get his home run rate under control this season (0.96 HR/9, 9.6% HR/FB rate) after setting records in 2023 (44 homers allowed in 183 2/3 innings; 2.16 HR/9, 19% HR/FB rate).
Lynn's flyball rate is down more than 5%, year over year, as he's discarded his curveball in favor of more cutters (19%, +6.4% vs. 2023).
Mitch Keller has suppressed the long ball throughout his career — but never better than this season (0.68 HR/9, 7% HR/FB rate).
Neither offense hits the ball in the air (Cardinals 21st, Pirates 27th in fly-ball rate), and they rank similarly in isolated power (ISO) this season (22nd and 26th, respectively).
Despite the wind and warm temperatures, I modeled Thursday's total closer to eight runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-112 or better)
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +160 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -190 |
Roddery Munoz (MIA) vs. Luis Severino (NYM)
Roddery Munoz (7.27 xERA through four starts) had shaky numbers in Triple-A and was a surprise call-up by the Marlins earlier this season.
Projections (projected FIP range of 4.85 to 5.28) don't think highly of him. He has a decent slider (114 Stuff+) and sinker (100 Stuff+) but an otherwise mediocre arsenal (97 Stuff+) alongside shaky command (98 Location+, 11.8% walk rate in the Minors).
Luis Severino (3.55 xERA, 104 Stuff+, 100 Location+) has a livelier arm with an even more dominant slider (157 Stuff+). He's also introduced a sinker this season (22.6% usage rate), leading to an uptick in ground-ball rate (career-high 52%).
Severino's strikeout rate hasn't bounced back to previous levels, but he's limiting hard contact, keeping the ball on the ground and learning how to pitch as he ages.
Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (-180 or better)
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Angels vs. Diamondbacks
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +154 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -184 |
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)
I have highlighted Brandon Pfaadt's quality and quantified his underrated skillset multiple times this season. He owns a career 5.21 ERA compared to a 3.83 xERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 17.3% K-BB%.
Pfaadt's ERA this season (4.60) is more than a run and a half higher than his expected mark (3.04), thanks in part to a 61% strand rate (league average of 71.7%). Pfaadts's 18.8% K-BB% ranks 22nd amongst 72 qualified starters. He owns solid pitch modeling metrics (105 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) thanks to an elite slider (138 Stuff+) and excellent command.
And while he's permitted 13 runs in his past three starts (18 1/3 innings), Pfaadt's pitch modeling figures (108 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 105 Pitching+) have remained stable.
Griffin Cannning (4.83 xERA, 6.9% K-BB%) has taken a step back this season after a solid 2023 campaign (4.01 xERA, 19.2% K-BB%) due to a decline in velocity (fastball down from 94.7 mph to 93.5 mph) and stuff (Stuff+ down from 96 to 86; Location+ down from 102 to 97).
Canning's strikeout rate has decreased by more than 10% (from 25.9% to 15.5%) compared to his career-best mark in 2023, and he is almost certainly pitching through injury after dealing with arm issues throughout his career.
Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-185 or better) | Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (-175 or better)
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +104 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -196 |
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) vs. Michael Grove (LAD)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was expected to get the start for L.A. on Thursday, which happens to be his bobblehead night, but the Dodgers decided to push his next start to Saturday against the Royals. In his place, the Dodgers are opening with Michael Grove, with most of the bullpen available after he exits.
I expect Ryan Yarbrough (4.55 xERA, 4% K-BB%, 93 Pitching+), who last pitched on June 8, to get the bulk of the innings. The southpaw carries a career-low 10.9% strikeout rate through 18 appearances, which is the second-lowest mark among the 204 pitchers who have tossed at least 30 innings this season (Sixto Sanchez, 10.5%).
I project Yarbrough fairly comparably to Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen (4.64 xERA, 7.1% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+).
The Dodgers undoubtedly have the superior bullpen (15th vs. 20th in xFIP, 9th vs. 22nd in K-BB%, 11th vs. 17th in Pitching+), but that's no substitute for Yamamoto's level (3.18 xERA, 22.9% K-BB%).
Bets: Over 8 (-115 or better) | Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+165 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, June 13
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-166, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -185)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, Risk 0.5u) at WynnBet (flat to -175)
- Detroit Tigers F5 (-140, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -160)
- Detroit Tigers (-140, Risk 0.5u) at ESPNBet (flat to -145)
- Detroit Tigers / Washington Nationals, Under 9.5 (-105, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to -112)
- New York Mets F5 (-174, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -180)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -112)
- Seattle Mariners (-106, 0.25u) at Superbook (small to -110)
- Texas Rangers (+190, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +165)
- Texas Rangers / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 8 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -115)
