Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, August 8.
MLB Predictions Thursday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 8)
Sean Zerillo's Giants vs. Nationals MLB Best Bet
Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs. DJ Herz (WSH)
Through 26 MLB starts, Kyle Harrison has been a noticeably better pitcher at home than on the road.
In 69 2/3 innings at home, Harrison has posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.84 xFIP with an 18.8% K-BB%. He's also limited opponents to 0.65 HR/9 on a 6.6% HR/FB rate at Oracle Park.
In 66 1/3 innings on the road, Harrison owns a 5.02 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, and 10.2% K-BB% while permitting 2.31 HR/9 on an 18.1% HR/FB rate.
Harrison throws his four-season fastball 60% of the time, and while it has produced the best results (.324 xwOBA) of any pitch in his arsenal (slurve .382 xwOBA, changeup .370), Harrison allows a ton of flyballs in the process.
Those flyballs typically don't hurt him at Oracle Park – which has the lowest Home Run Park Factor (79) in MLB over the past three years, although CJ Abrams took him deep in San Francisco.
Nationals Park (102, 13th) and other road venues don't hold the ball in as well.
Harrison's pitch modeling metrics have also steadily declined in-season: from 90 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 97 Pitching in April down to 91/97/91 in May and June and 87/89/86 since July 1.
DJ Herz (3.19 xERA, 22.9% K-BB%) seems like a potentially underrated and under-projected arm for Washington (projected FIP range of 4.34 to 4.69) if he can maintain his strikeout rate. However, his pitch modeling metrics are subpar (93 Stuff+, 97 Pitching+, 4.60 bottle).
Herz puts the Giants' offense in their superior split (120 wRC+, 2nd vs. LHP; 17th vs. RHP), but Washington's key relievers are better rested for Thursday.
Bets: Nationals F5 Moneyline (-102 or better) | Nationals Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better) | Over 8.5 (9, -110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Padres vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Predictions, Picks
Randy Vasquez (SDP) vs. Luis L. Ortiz (PIT)
The Padres' bullpen has been taxed the past two nights. Dylan Cease only pitched one inning on Tuesday before an extended rain delay forced Bryan Hoeing into long relief with four key relievers behind him. And they needed six relievers on Thursday in a wild 9-8, come-from-behind win.
I'd give a well-rested Padres bullpen an advantage against any team. Still, I project a late-game pitching advantage for the Pirates on Thursday after Jeremiah Estrada, Tanner Scott, and Adrian Morejon pitched on consecutive days for San Diego; even though David Bednar blew the save, Pittsburgh's bullpen is a bit better rested.
Randy Vasquez (5.91 xERA, 8.8% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.96 botERA) continues underperforming his above-average pitch modeling metrics. Vasquez has posted a 3.24 ERA since mid-June, but he's still not generating strikeouts, and his K-BB% has dipped (7.2%) over that span.
Luis L. Ortiz (3.96 xERA, 11 % K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 3.95 botERA) has comparable pitch modeling metrics to Vasquez and produced superior on-field results—although I'm a bit worried that he was tipping pitches in his last start against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona was facing Ortiz for the second consecutive outing, and they hit a triple and three homers to begin the game before the righty settled in.
Aside from Ortiz potentially tipping pitches, Pittsburgh should have the pitching advantage on Thursday.
Bets: Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better) | Over 8.5 (-120 or 9, +100 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Mets vs. Rockies Pick: Value On Over/Under
David Peterson (NYM) vs. Austin Gomber (COL)
As a Mets fan, I'm concerned that a rotation regularly featuring David Peterson (3.47 ERA, 5.30 xERA, 7.7% K-BB%) and Jose Quintana (3.95 ERA, 5.02 xERA, 9.9% K-BB%) is going to collapse over the final two months.
Following offseason hip surgery, Peterson's strikeout minus walk rate is less than half his 2023 mark (15.9%), even though his velocity is up (93.4 mph vs. 92.7 mph in 2023) and both his Stuff+ (94) and Pitching+ (95) ratings are at a career-high.
Peterson's BABIP (.299) isn't particularly low, and his strand rate (81.1%), while high, isn't astronomical (career 73.9%). Moreover, his HR/9 rate (0.91) isn't far off from his career average (1.12) or prior seasons (0.94 in 2022 and 0.91 in 2020).
However, Peterson has generated a career-best 55% groundball rate, and so long as he keeps the ball on the ground, he should continue outperforming his underlying indicators.
Austin Gomber (4.83 xERA, 11.5% K-BB%, 80 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 98 Pitching+) is arguably the better southpaw – but stuck in a far worse home environment.
Both pitchers should benefit from cool August weather on Thursday afternoon (71 degrees at first pitch) with 6-7 mph winds blowing in from right field.
On an average day at Coors Field, I'd set this total closer at 10.93 runs, but the wind and weather knocked my projection down to 10.39.
Bets: Under 11 (-115 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Bets for Thursday, August 8
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- Baltimore Orioles / Toronto Blue Jays, Over 9 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -116)
- Los Angeles Angels / New York Yankees, Over 8.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -120 or 9, +100)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+130, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
- New York Mets / Colorado Rockies, Under 11 (-105, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -115)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -112)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-105, 0.5u; bet to -115)
- San Diego Padres / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 8.5 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -120 or 9, +100)
- San Francisco Giants / Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to 9, -110)
- Washington Nationals F5 (+102, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -102)
- Washington Nationals (+110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
