Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, May 5.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 5)
Red Sox vs. Twins
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 8 -102o / -118u | +145 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 8 -102o / -118u | -175 |
Cooper Criswell (BOS) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
Cooper Criswell is actually a pretty good starting pitcher. He has three pitches — a sinker, sweeper and changeup — that each rate well by Stuff+ (116 sinker, 110 changeup, 104 sweeper) — and he’s finding success with no velocity.
His sinker doesn’t even average 90 mph, but 44.3% of the time it’s ending in a called strike or whiff, which is one of the higher marks in baseball. It’s more like a two-seam fastball than a sinker because it has almost 19 inches of horizontal movement on it, which is why it’s been so difficult for hitters to handle.
Criswell throws his sweeper more than any other pitch — it only averages 78.5 mph, but it’s in the 94th percentile for total break compared to all MLB sliders.
Cooper Criswell, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/cqrmE2cI0H
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2024
He was excellent in his last start against the Giants, giving up only two hits and one walk over five scoreless innings. The 27-year-old hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings.
Joe Ryan has been excellent to begin the season, posting a 2.49 xERA. He's found success by utilizing his fastball up in the zone.
He doesn't have elite velocity, averaging only 93.7 mph, but he's throwing it 47% of the time and his command and location of those fastballs is generating a 62.9% fly-ball rate (91st percentile).
This might not be the best possible matchup for Ryan against a Red Sox offense that has the fourth-best run value against fastballs and a .387 xwOBA against heaters 95 mph or slower since the start of last season.
The Red Sox and Twins bullpens are both in the top 10 in xFIP; their Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings have also been pretty comparable. However, Minnesota's lights-out closer, Jhoan Duran, has pitched in back-to-back days, so it's unlikely he'd be available on Sunday.
I only have the Red Sox projected at +124, so I like the value on them at +145.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+145 via DraftKings)
Braves vs. Dodgers
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 9 -105o / -115u | -126 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 9 -105o / -115u | +108 |
Max Fried (ATL) vs. James Paxton (LAD)
Max Fried has been a bit unlucky to have an ERA over four as his xERA is over a full run lower at 2.93. Fried's strikeout numbers aren't where we normally see them, but that is okay because he's inducing ground-balls at an elite rate.
Fried is utilizing his changeup, curveball and sinker down in the zone and has generated a 67.4% ground-ball rate. He's using his fastball up in the zone to put hitters away.
Having that high of a ground-ball rate to go along with elite command allows Fried to keep the ball off the opposition's sweet spot despite average Stuff+ numbers. Fried leads MLB with an 82.4 mph average exit velocity allowed and he is only allowing hard hits on 25% of balls in play (97th percentile).
James Paxton is a big-time negative regression candidate with his xERA all the way up at 6.16 compared to an actual ERA at 3.51. We saw some of that negative regression happen in his previous start against Arizona, when he allowed six hits and four runs in five innings.
To say he's been wild to begin the season would be an understatement. Paxton has a 7.71 BB/9 rate; in three of his five starts, he has walked five or more batters. His Location+ is only 93, which is fifth lowest among starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings.
Paxton's Stuff+ numbers are way down as well. He used to be someone who could regularly pump 98 mph fastballs — something that made him incredibly difficult as a left-handed pitcher. But now, he's only averaging 93.5 mph on his fastball (down two mph from last year), which has a Stuff+ rating of 72 because there is very little horizontal or vertical movement on it.
The Dodgers bullpen hasn't been that great this season, posting a 4.10 xFIP, which ranks in the bottom half of baseball, while Atlanta is currently sitting with the sixth-best mark.
With the gap in the starting pitching matchup, I like the value on the Braves at -126 — I have them projected at -158.
Pick: Braves ML (-126 via FanDuel)
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Giants vs. Phillies
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -122 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +104 |
Logan Webb (SF) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
Logan Webb is a negative regression candidate with an ERA of 2.98 and an xERA of 4.44. Since last season's All-Star break, he hasn't really generated a high frequency of swings and misses. In the first half 2023, he had a K/9 of 9.07, but since that point, he’s down to around 6.50.
Webb is reliant on getting a high number of ground balls to be successful — with a sinker, changeup and sweeper being his three main pitches, you can see why. It’s mainly his changeup that he utilizes down in the zone and he actually uses his sinker more middle to up in the zone to set up both of his offspeed pitches.
Both of Webb's offspeed pitches are allowing a much higher xwOBA than actual wOBA, and a very high average exit velocity when they are hit, which is why he’s overperformed this season.
The Phillies have one of the lowest ground-ball rates against right handed pitching and also have a 107 wRC+ against righties, which is the eighth-best mark in baseball.
Taijuan Walker's season debut in San Diego did not go as planned. He made it through 6 1/3 innings, but he gave up eight hits and six runs. What was even more concerning was Walker's velocity — he was down a full tick on all of his pitchers.
He's now barely averaging over 91 mph on his fastball and sinker, while his Stuff+ numbers have taken a dip from 94 in 2023 to 89 in his first start of 2024.
With both of these starting pitchers having struggles to begin the season, I think the total is too low, so I like the value on over 7.5 at -105.
