Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, May 26.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 26)
Starting pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) vs Casey Mize (RHP)
I'm a little worried about Casey Mize.
He lost some fastball velocity two starts ago, and while it ticked back up in his most recent start, he still got shelled by Kansas City, allowing six runs on a 47% hard-hit rate while failing to escape the second inning.
Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi keeps shoving. His advanced pitching model metrics are elite (109 Stuff+, 103 Location+), and he ranks 13th among qualified starting pitchers in Pitching+ (106), right behind Shota Imanaga.
He's throwing his changeup more, and it's become his best pitch (+6 Run Value, 25% whiff rate, 54% ground-ball rate) while finding some extra velocity and ride on his fastball, improving his strikeout numbers (26%), walk numbers (5%) and batted-ball profile.
You can't trust the Tigers lineup against lefties. They've posted a .484 OPS against the side over the past two weeks behind a 55% ground-ball rate. Two of their top-four hitters are southpaws (Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter), and that's a tough prospect against same-side hitting because the lineup severely lacks depth.
Additionally, Kikuchi is much better against same-side batters.
Toronto's lineup seems to be trending up against right-handed pitching, posting a .802 OPS and a .192 ISO against the side over the past two weeks. The Jays have always been disciplined, but they're starting to pull more balls in the air. I still believe many of the top hitters are due for positive regression.
Finally, over the past two weeks, the Jays bullpen has posted a 3.34 ERA, 3.02 SIERA and 27% strikeout rate. Detroit's relievers have posted a 7.00 ERA, 3.90 SIERA and a 19% strikeout rate. Toronto's bullpen is also a little more rested.
Bets: Blue Jays ML (-130 | Play to -135)
- Sign up using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to make a Blue Jays vs Tigers wager.
Starting pitchers: Bryan Woo (RHP) vs Patrick Corbin (LHP)
At the time of writing, -155 number is still available at bet365, a price significantly better than the rest of the market.
I love Bryan Woo. He has the highest vertical approach angle of any four-seam fastball behind elite extension, making it dizzying for hitters to see and square up. So, despite average velocity and ride, Woo's four-seamer boasts a 20% swinging-strike rate, the fourth-highest mark among Major League fastballs.
A great fastball makes your secondary stuff better. Woo's sinker is forcing a 60% ground-ball rate behind a 121 Stuff+ mark, and his slider/sweeper mix has high whiff potential behind a 114 Stuff+ mark.
He also has elite control and command of his arsenal, posting a 110 Location+ that's the highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this year. He's only walked two batters across his first three starts, compared to 15 strikeouts.
Of note: Woo has the highest strike minus ideal contact rate (62%) of any starting pitcher, which is a good description of Seattle's young righty with a .57 ERA and 1.95 xERA.
He really put everything together in his last start against the hard-hitting Bronx Bombers, posting six shutout innings with two hits, seven strikeouts and 16 whiffs on only 77 pitches.
Five days later, he'll face a significant step down in competition against the Nationals, who have a .613 OPS and .120 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks behind too many ground balls (42%) and not enough hard contact (34%). They need Lane Thomas' pull-happy swing back in the lineup.
Seattle's offense has been up and down, but it does have a 50% hard-hit rate, 50% pull rate and 30% fly-ball rate against southpaws over the past two weeks. If you're pulling the ball hard in the air, you can rest assured that better days are ahead.
You can also be rest assured that Washington's Patrick Corbin will continue performing like one of the worst qualified starting pitchers in baseball (6.29 ERA, 6.46 xERA). The Twins just tagged him for eight earned runs across six innings last week.
I'm bullish on both bullpens, so I'd rather isolate the Woo-vs-Corbin, lefty-vs-lefty offense matchups.
Bets: Mariners F5 ML (-155 | Play to -170)
- Bet Mariners vs Nationals at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
Starting pitchers: Logan Webb (RHP) vs Sean Manaea (LHP)
Logan Webb is a cheat code at home. But Oracle Park is a pitcher's paradise (27th in park factor), which really helps his overall profile.
Webb's home-road splits, however, are obscene. This season alone, Webb has a 1.03 home ERA and a 5.34 road ERA.
I think his true profile reveals itself once you remove him from the friendly confines of Oracle Park.
Webb's on pace for a career-high xERA (4.84) because his ground-ball rate has dropped significantly on his beloved sinker (from 70% in 2021 to 55% in 2024) and he's getting hit harder than ever (52% hard-hit rate). He's also striking out fewer batters and walking more (12% strikeout minus walk rate, his lowest since 2020) because the swinging-strike rate on his heavily used changeup has dropped to a career-low (11%).
I think Webb is overvalued, especially on the road. He's allowed 10 earned runs over his last 13 road innings.
Sean Manaea is also a negative regression candidate (3.11 ERA, 4.26 xERA, 4.69 xFIP) — his walk rate has ballooned to 11% and his strikeout rate has dropped to 20%. He's lost velocity on his fastball, and his stuff profile keeps dropping (down to 85 across his arsenal from 91 last season).
The Giants hit better against lefties (107 wRC+) and have crushed the side over the past two weeks behind excellent plate discipline and a low ground-ball rate. Similarly, the Mets hit much better against righties (106 wRC+) than lefties (89 wRC+), and they've posted a pull rate and hard-hit rate near 50% over the past two weeks against the side.
The Giants bullpen is undervalued, but the Mets bullpen is imploding because Edwin Diaz is slumping (seven earned runs across his last three outings). These are also two bottom-five defenses, and both relief corps are a tad extended after heavy weekend usage.
Bets: Over 7.5 (-114) | Play to 8 (+100)
- Maximize your Giants vs Mets action with our FanDuel promo code.
Starting pitchers: Clarke Schmidt (RHP) vs Joe Musgrove (RHP)
Joe Musgrove's Stuff+ numbers look awesome (115 across his arsenal), boosted by three plus-plus secondary offerings — but I still don't love what I've seen from him.
He's struggling to find the zone (2% year-over-year increase in walk rate) and he is getting hit supremely hard in the zone (11% barrel rate), leading to a career-worst batted-ball profile and an xERA north of six. He finally posted two good starts in his last two outings, but both came against the hapless Cincinnati offense.
Musgrove's now about to face the league's best lineup against right-handed pitching, as the Yankees have posted an obscene 144 wRC+ against the side over the last month, 14 points higher than any other lineup. They've hit as many fly balls as ground balls against the side over the last two weeks.
San Diego has started hitting again now that it has leaned into a more pesky, contact-based approach, led by the recently acquired Luis Arraez, who's batting .390 since the trade from Miami. However, Xander Bogaerts recently hit the IL, and Clarke Schmidt is putting together a career season.
I've always liked Schmidt because I thought he had the stuff. But his Stuff+ numbers have jumped even higher across his arsenal (from 102 last season to 115 this year). As they often do, the Yankees taught him how to throw a cutter, and it's now his most-used pitch, with a 17% swinging-strike rate and a 107 Stuff+ mark.
The most significant impact of better stuff is a higher strikeout rate, and Schmidt's has jumped to a career-high 27%. He's struck out 20 batters over his last 20 innings, allowing only two runs and two walks during the stretch.
Sure, Schmidt is a tad overvalued because of a high strand rate (86%), meaning his expected run indicators are closer to 3.50 than 2.50.
But, this bears repeating, Musgrove's xERA is north of six. The Yankees have the better starter and offense in this matchup.
San Diego's bullpen is red-hot, and New York's is slightly overvalued, so I'll back the Bombers in the first half on Sunday afternoon.
Bets: Yankees F5 ML (-115 | Play to -125)
- Maximize your Yankees vs Padres action with our BetRivers promo code.
McGrath's Bets for Sunday, May 26
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Blue Jays ML (-130 | Play to -135)
- Mariners F5 ML (-155 | Play to -170)
- Giants vs Mets Over 7.5 (-114) | Play to 8 (+100)
- Yankees F5 ML (-115 | Play to -125)
