Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, May 19.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 19)
Nationals vs. Phillies
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+205 | 7.5 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-250 | 7.5 -115o/ -105u | -1.5 +110 |
Trevor Williams has been excellent this season with a 1.94 ERA — but his xERA is much higher at 3.31. The main reason he's been so good is because he hasn't given up a home run, which has been a big problem throughout his career.
One thing he is doing very well is generating a high number of ground balls. Some of his most successful seasons as a Pirate were when he was utilizing his sinker, slider and changeup down in the zone to get the ball on the ground. He needs to continue to be able to do this because he has no velocity left with a four-seam fastball that averages 89.2 mph and a sinker at 88 mph. He's doing that with a lot of success this season with a ground-ball rate just short of 50%.
The problem is that Williams hasn't faced many difficult lineups — four of his eight starts have come against the bottom-eight offenses against right-handed pitching. On Sunday, he will be facing one of the best, as the Phillies have a 112 wRC+ against righties.
Aaron Nola had a bit of a rough start to the season, but he seems to have corrected some of his issues.
He's coming off a shutout of the Mets and the strikeout rate and whiff rates are back up, which is an encouraging sigh. With that being said, Nola has had a pretty significant drop in velocity from last season, as his fastball and sinker are down a full mph, along with his Stuff+ dropping as well. Both of those pitches have been pretty average, allowing a .318 xwOBA to opposing hitters.
Nola's utilizing his knuckle-curve at around a 30% rate, which is where he was last season — it's the pitch that's allowed him to be successful. It has a 128 Stuff+ and has only allowed a .255 xwOBA to opposing hitters. However, that is his only pitch considered elite at this point.
I have 8.2 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on over 7.5 runs at -105.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Athletics vs. Royals
| A's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 9 -102o/ -120u | +1.5 -146 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-166 | 9 -102o/ -120u | -1.5 +122 |
JP Sears has been pitching right around where he is projected to be (in the 4.40 xERA range), but he does have some major flaws.
First, he's really struggled generating a consistent number of swings and misses. His K/9 rate is only 6.3 and he is in the 21st percentile for whiff rate.
Sears is a fly-ball pitcher pitcher by nature, utilizing his fastball up in the zone to the tune of about a 50% fly-ball rate, which is fine if you are pitching in Oakland, but when you are on the road, against a good fastball hitting teams, and the wind is blowing out to left field at 13 mph, it becomes much harder to get away with this type of profile.
Sears does only throw is fastball 31% of the time and his sweeper is actually really good — it has a 118 Stuff+ rating and is holding batters to a .250 xwOBA. However, outside of that pitch, every one of his pitches grades out below average by Stuff+.
There is also a pretty drastic split advantage for the Royals. They can potentially platoon seven right-handed bats into their lineup, which would be a big advantage because Sears has a 5.09 xFIP against righties as opposed to a 3.73 xFIP against lefties.
Brady Singer is a negative regression candidate — his ERA is at 2.84, but his xERA is at 4.41, which is where his rest-of-season projections have him closer to.
Singer has terrible stuff and he’s going to have to be really, really good with his command to be consistently effective. In 2024, he has a Stuff+ rating of 87 — his fastball is at 60 and his sinker is at 78. His slider grades out as average and it’s the pitch he throws the most often at 43.4% — he’s still allowing a .315 xwOBA on it. In fact, all three of his main pitches are allowing a higher xwOBA than actual wOBA by a pretty decent margin.
The A's have actually hit well this season. They have a 99 wRC+ against right-handed pitching — over the last 30 days, they are 11th in MLB in wRC+.
The Royals bullpen is pretty bad as well. They have the third-worst xFIP in baseball and the second-worst Pitching+ rating behind only Colorado, so if Singer can't go deep, the A's may very well put up a big number.
I have the A's projected at +110 and the total for this game at 9.8, so I like the value on Oakland at +150 and over 8.5 runs at -120.
Pick: A's ML (+150 via ESPNBet) | Over 8.5 (-120 via Bet365)
Angels vs. Rangers
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 -122o/ +100u | +1.5 -154 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-166 | 8.5 -122o/ +100u | -1.5 +128 |
Jose Soriano may have a 4.29 xERA, but a lot of that has to do with command issues. If he can get that somewhat sorted out — and lower his 4.66 BB/9 — the ceiling is incredibly high for him.
Soriano has a 104 Stuff+ rating mainly due to pure velocity. He throws a fastball that averages 99.1 mph (second-fastest behind only Paul Skenes) and a sinker that averages 98.1 mph. He throws his sinker down in the zone 59.4% of the time, so at that velocity, it's really difficult to hit.
However, his main go-to pitch is a knuckle-curve — and it's a good one. Soriano is only allowing a .138 xBA. It's also producing a 42.9% whiff rate.
Even though the Rangers have one of the most deadly lineups in baseball, they actually aren't that great against top-tier velocity. Against fastballs and sinkers over 98 mph, they have a .267 xwOBA, which right around the MLB average.
Michael Lorenzen really wasn't that great with the Angels or the Phillies last season — posting a 4.55 xERA — and he's continued that with the Rangers. Through six starts, he has a 3.75 ERA, but his xERA is a full run higher at 4.75.
The problem with Lorenzen is that he's too reliant on his fastball and sinker. Otherwise, his secondary pitches are actually quite good. He throws his fastball and sinker a combined 47.4% of the time — both of those pitches have a Stuff+ rating below 90.
Additionally, he's really struggling with his command (18.8% walk rate). Not only that, but when hitters make contact, they are crushing as the right-hander is allowing a 42.3% hard hit rate.
Despite not having Mike Trout, the Angels have actually been hitting the ball pretty well. Over the last 30 days, they are top 10 in wRC+ and have a .368 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and sinkers.
I only have the Rangers projected at -103, so I love the value on the Angels at +142.
