Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, August 4.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 4)
Tanner McGrath's Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, Pick & Preview
Ryne Nelson (RHP, ARI) vs Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT)
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: White Hot Snakes
The Snakes are white-hot. Only the Yankees have produced more hitting fWAR over the past two weeks (4.6), with the Diamondbacks hitting to a 145 wRC+ during the stretch.
We aren’t talking enough about Ketel Marte, who ranks sixth among position players in fWAR this season (5.1). Since July started, he’s slashing .360/.427/.647 for a 1.101 OPS, adding nine homers and 25 RBIs during the stretch behind elite approach.
But don’t overlook Eugenio Suarez (189 wRC+ over the past 30 days), Joc Pederson (199) or Corbin Carroll (137), who are all heating up as the weather warms up.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Is Paul Skenes Regressing?
So, these red-hot Snakes will battle Paul Skenes, who I think is starting to show signs of wear and tear. We must remember he’s still a 22-year-old rookie who hasn’t thrown all that much yet, and I expect him to fade a bit down the stretch before the Pirates shut him down.
After averaging over 99 mph on his fastball over his first eight starts, he’s closer to 98 mph over his past five, with his pitch modeling metrics declining in unison. On the season, Skenes has posted a 109 Stuff+ and 105 Location+ mark, but those marks are down to 102 and 102 over the past month.
In his most recent start against Houston, Skenes struck out six and walked three, equating to an expected FIP closer to five. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a rough outing against one of the hottest offenses in baseball.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Pick
Behind Skenes is a bullpen that’s posted a 10% walk rate and 46% hard-hit rate against over the past two weeks, resulting in a 4.18 SIERA and three losses.
In the other dugout, the Pirates have struggled to hit right-handed hitting all season (83 wRC+, 29th). But I see some signs over the past month indicating positive regression, notably better discipline (10% swinging-strike rate, 11th; 25% chase rate, second)) and more hard-hit balls (41%, sixth).
Ryne Nelson has always struggled on contact, and this season is no different (90 mph average exit velocity allowed, 16th percentile; 40% hard-hit rate allowed, 35th percentile). But he’s also seen a drastic decrease in his advanced pitching model metrics – he posted a 117 Stuff+ mark in his rookie season, compared to a 97 this year – which is far more worrisome.
I never know how to feel about Arizona’s bullpen, but I can’t project them any better than a league-average unit after recent results (3.89 ERA, 3.95 SIERA, 1.40 WHIP, 20% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate over the past two weeks).
With hot weather (mid-80s-temps) and slight breezes out toward center field (5 mph), I’m more than interested in the over in this battle.
Bet: Over 8 (-102, DraftKings) | Play to 8 (-110)
Tanner McGrath's Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction, Pick & Preview
Yariel Rodriguez (RHP, TOR) vs Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Betting Preview: Bad Bullpens, Good Lineups
11 of 12 AL East divisional series games between the Jays and Yankees have sailed over the closing total this season, with the two averaging almost 11 runs per game. Remove the two series in April – where the weather isn’t as conducive to hitting – and all six games have gone over, with the two averaging almost 13 runs per game.
I’m banking on more of the same in Sunday’s battle.
The reason for the high-scoring games between these two is fairly simple: These are two decent-to-great offenses and two horrific bullpens.
The Blue Jays have the worst bullpen in baseball, ranking last in reliever fWAR (-1.4) with bottom-five marks in ERA (5.03), xFIP (4.51), strikeout minus walk rate (11%). The only reliable reliever on staff was Yimi Garcia (2.70 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR), who was traded to Seattle at the deadline. Otherwise, every other reliever has been below replacement level.
The Yankees boast a bottom-10 bullpen by most reliever metrics (4.05 xFIP, 13% strikeout minus walk rate, 1.5 fWAR). While Clay Holmes has performed better recently, there aren’t many reliable middle or set-up men.
Relevant to this handicap, both bullpens were used extensively in Saturday’s battle. The Yankees deployed Jake Cousins, Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Mark Leiter Jr. and Clay Holmes in the 8-3 win, while the Blue Jays used Erik Swanson, Ryan Burr and Yerry Rodriguez.
At the same time, both the Yankees and Blue Jays have exploded in the batter’s box after a mid-season slump.
No lineup has been more productive over the past two weeks than New York’s (5.2 fWAR, 152 wRC+). Aaron Judge and Juan Soto continue to mash, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been especially productive since putting on the pinstripes (7-for-23 with four home runs and eight RBIs).
After months of cursed batted-ball luck, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has finally turned his hard-hit balls into results. He’s 28-for-55 with eight home runs and nine walks to only six strikeouts over his past 15 games, slashing .509/.579/1.091 for a 1.167 OPS during the stretch – Guerrero (1.6) trails only Bobby Witt Jr. (1.7) among MLB hitters in fWAR during the stretch.
Still, don’t overlook George Springer’s mid-season improvements (.848 OPS since July 1). Addison Barger has added some pop to the lineup (.593 SLG, .903 OPS during July) with his elite bat speed (75 mph). Joey Luperfido – a top prospect acquired in the Yusei Kikuchi trade – hit a triple and scored twice against the Yankees on Friday.
All in all, the Blue Jays have posted top-10 marks in hitting fWAR (2.5) and wRC+ (113) over the past two weeks. They’re an above-average lineup again.
Not to be confused with Yerry, Yariel Rodriguez will start for the Blue Jays on Sunday. He’s not a bad arm but has brutal command issues (14% walk rate in MLB, 15% in Triple-A) that the ever-disciplined Yankees should take advantage of.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Cole Issues
But the bigger part of this handicap is Gerrit Cole. I don’t believe the reigning AL Cy Young winner is the same guy anymore. Over the past two seasons, he’s lost two ticks of velocity (97.8 mph to 95.8) and 40 points of Stuff+ (157 to 115) on his fastball, resulting in a drastic decrease in strikeouts and a slight increase in walks.
Even worse, Cole’s ineffective fastball has caused a brutal home run problem. He’s allowed nine across his first 35 innings this season (2.31 HR/9, 18% HR/FB), which is the main driver of his unimpressive earned run indicators (5.40 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 5.54 FIP, 4.30 xFIP).
Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick
The weather report calls for moderate breezes out toward left field and mid-80s temperatures in the Bronx on Sunday. Therefore, we're projecting a +7% Run Factor for Yankee Stadium, including a +25% Home Run factor, which could burn Cole.
Everything points toward another Jays-Yankees over.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-105, DraftKings) | Play to 9.5 (-110)
Tanner McGrath's Dodgers vs Athletics Prediction, Pick & Preview
River Ryan (RHP, LAD) vs Osvaldo Bido (RHP, OAK)
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Trouble In Paradise?
This was a trap series for the Dodgers, and while they’ve managed to split the first two games, I'm betting they lose the rubber match.
It’s hard to project the Dodgers as an elite offense without Freddie Freeman or Mookie Betts in the lineup. The perennial NL West Champions are running with Jason Heyward (92 OPS+), Enrique Hernandez (64 OPS+), Andy Pages (88 OPS+), Cavan Biggio (83 OPS+) and Nick Ahmad (71 OPS+) at the bottom of the order.
Conversely, the A’s can’t stop hitting. Nobody has a better wRC+ over the past month (138). They’re 16-9 since July started, averaging over six runs per game. Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker both have a wRC+ over 200 during the stretch.
The Dodgers still lack depth in the rotation, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller and Wlaker Buehler on the IL. Thus, River Ryan takes the mound on Sunday, the right-handed rookie with 11 MLB innings to his name.
Ryan is a Stuff+ darling, with a 117 mark across his arsenal buoyed by an upper-90s fastball and two plus-secondary pitches (slider, curveball). But he’s had a brutal time commanding and controlling this electric arsenal, regularly posting 10% walk rates in the minors before walking six batters in his first 11 MLB innings.
The A’s have walked almost 10% of the time over the past month while posting a reasonably low 21% strikeout rate. A patient lineup could be deadly against Ryan.
On the other mound, I have no issues with backing Osvaldo Bido. He has pieced together two excellent starts (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB vs. HOU; 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 3 BB vs. ARI) combined with one blow-up (3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K, 4 BB vs. LAA). He’s an above-average stuff guy (105 Stuff+ across his arsenal) behind a nasty slider (131 Stuff+, 30% CSW rate).
Dodgers vs Athletics Pick
On the whole, Ryan and Bido probably pitch close to their season-long projections, which put them around a 4.50 ERA.
While I don’t have much confidence in the A’s bullpen without Mason Miller, they have posted a 2.55 ERA over the past two weeks. Conversely, the Dodgers’ pen has posted a 6.05 ERA during that stretch because there aren’t enough arms in that unit you can trust – not a single Dodger reliever with over 20 innings this year has an xFIP under 3.25.
Ultimately, I make the pitching matchup a wash across all nine innings and give the A’s an offensive advantage. That’s enough to take a plus-money flier with Oakland.
Bet: Athletics ML (+136, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+120)
Tanner McGrath's Phillies vs Mariners Prediction, Pick & Preview
Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) vs Logan Gilbert (RHP, SEA)
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: What's Up With Zack Wheeler?
What’s our temperature level on Zack Wheeler?
He was pulled early from his start against the Dodgers (back pain) but shoved against the Twins in his next start (7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 2 BB). But then he blew up against the Yankees in his next outing (5 IP, 7 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 3 HR).
Ultimately, it’s tough to say. The white-hot Bronx Bombers mostly took advantage of a few mistake pitches. But Wheeler has allowed eight barrels in two starts since his faux injury, a worrisome 26% rate.
I’m not ready to declare the Mariners a good lineup, but the additions of Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena can only help. Over the past few weeks, they have pulled (50%) and barreled (12%) more balls while looking more patient at the plate (11% walk rate). And who knows what we’ll get from Wheeler on Sunday?
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Logan Gilbert Bounce-Back Spot
Conversely, I’m targeting a big bounce-back spot for Logan Gilbert on Sunday. The Red Sox took him for seven runs across 2 ⅔ innings in his most recent start, but that was mostly because he was shelled directly after an atrocious call that would’ve ended the inning.
Underneath the rough box score was Gilbert’s highest average fastball (97.3 mph) and cutter (93.1) velocity of the season. His advanced pitching model metrics are improving (119 Stuff+ on the season, 128 across his past two starts), and he’s posted 60 strikeouts to six walks across his past 58 innings, producing a 2.96 xFIP.
He should bounce back against a Phillies lineup in the gutter during Bryce Harper’s slump (.141/.228/.338/.566, 10-for-71 with 18 strikeouts since returning from injury on July 9). They’ve posted the league’s fourth-lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month (84) behind the league’s second-lowest barrel rate (6%) – they can’t find anything.
Phillies vs Mariners Pick
These are two excellent bullpens that I would power rate about equally, so I’m happy to bet on Gilbert and the M’s offense against Wheeler and the Phils at plus money.
Bet: Mariners ML (+116, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+100)
McGrath's Best Bets for Sunday, August 3
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- Athletics ML (+136, DraftKings) | Play to ML (+120)
- Blue Jays vs Yankees Over 9.5 (-105, DraftKings) | Play to 9.5 (-110)
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over 8 (-102, DraftKings) | Play to 8 (+100)
- Mariners ML (+116, FanDuel) | Play to ML (+100)
