Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, June 15.
MLB Predictions Saturday | Expert Picks & Previews
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -102 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -116 |
Trevor Rogers (MIA) vs. DJ Herz (WAS)
Now hold on just a moment, the Nationals may be cooking up something here with DJ Herz. The left-hander has made just two starts, struggling a bit, but after the work that this team did with the likes of Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin, I think we should take any reasons to believe in a pitcher and run with them.
Herz is a tantalizing prospect, producing a ton of whiffs on his low-90s fastball and changeup due to his "crossfire" delivery as a lefty. He's been thought of as a reliever by some evaluators, namely his with former club in Chicago, but it would seem he has a chance to make us some money as an underappreciated arm on Saturday.
The 23-year-old carries a 6.48 ERA into this one, but with a very good .237 Expected Batting Average and .376 xSLG, it's really a wonder as to how he's ran into so much trouble. Walks have been a big issue, and the strikeouts haven't piled up as we'd expect given his whiff rates, but he'll encounter a Marlins team that is the worst in the league at taking walks and owns just a .275 on-base percentage versus lefties.
Washington hasn't been much better against southpaws, but there's a steep drop in quality between Herz and Trevor Rogers in my eyes. The troubled veteran has similarly had issues with walks, though it's been a gaudy .458 xSLG that has really done him in.
The Nationals have been far more disciplined at the plate this year, and while power has come and gone, their ability to get the ball in play consistently should allow for the matchup with Rogers to work itself into a victory.
Bet: Nationals -116 (to -125)
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. Justin Verlander (HOU)
Editor's Note: Justin Verlander was scratched due to neck discomfort. Spencer Arrighetti will start for the Astros in Verlander's place.
Here's a great question for you: Who do you trust less, Justin Verlander or the Tigers offense?
Both are a hard sell in my eyes, but I think I'm coming around a bit on Detroit. It's managed to hit a nearly-acceptable .233 over the last week of play to creep toward the middle of the league in offensive production, but the notable part of this is that the walks are going up and the strikeouts are going down when you examine those seven days.
Verlander isn't the same pitcher he once was, starved for strikeouts a second year in a row and dealing with an increasing walk rate which is now dangerously close to the league average. Yes, he's allowed fewer hard-hit balls this year and owns the exact same .229 Expected Batting Average he wore a season ago, but his xSLG is up considerably to .419.
Why's that? Well, he's rolled up ground balls at a stunningly-low 25.7% clip, trading them in for even more fly balls to take him nearly nine percentage points higher than the league norm, as well as more line drives. In the splits against fly-ball arms, the Tigers are essentially an average offense, and with the worsening problems Verlander is having on contact, I think a team making more contact can do enough here to earn a win for their stud arm.
Jack Flaherty had to leave his last start 11 days ago with back tightness, but according to the veteran righty, all systems are go after receiving a rest and an injection. The skepticism surrounding his health could be the reason for the suspicious line here, but I'm willing to back him given the stellar numbers he's posted to this point and the nature of this matchup for the Tigers' lineup.
Flaherty should feast on a team that has put the ball on the ground at a very high rate over the last week given his affinity for low launch angles and his glorious .219 xBA.
Bet: Tigers ML +115 (to +100)
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 9 -115o / -105u | -164 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9 -115o / -105u | +138 |
Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. Cooper Criswell (BOS)
Here I am again, writing about Cooper Criswell. The soft-tossing righty has transformed into an effective starting pitcher by the wizard known as Andrew Bailey, rolling up ground balls at an above-average rate behind his sinker and changeup, and if not for pitching behind one of the worst defenses in baseball, he'd likely own an ERA much closer to his 3.66 Expected ERA, according to Statcast.
The Yankees may be hitting over .300 against ground-ballers this year, but as we saw against Brayan Bello on Friday night, it might not always equate to an offensive explosion. The lineup was rather quiet around a two-run shot by Alex Verdugo in the first inning, and if not for three walks Bello would have had a much easier time navigating the order late in his outing.
Well, Criswell doesn't have issues when it comes to control given his 5.5% walk rate and, like Bello, he features a devastating change, which is a pitch the Yankees have been abysmal against this year. He should do his job against the Yankees, which is to keep the ball in the yard, and with that I think we're seeing a total that's far too high for a second night running.
Boston owns just a 98 wRC+ against lefties to sit 16th in the league, striking out nearly 29% of the time — that certainly isn't good news when you're facing Carlos Rodon. He's beginning to bring the swings and misses up, resting more than seven percentage points higher over the last month and a half than he did in April, and the strikeout numbers have slowly followed suit.
Rodon does have a world of trouble keeping the ball out of the air, but I think his improving strikeout and walk numbers will do more than enough to mitigate that risk against a terrible undisciplined Boston lineup which has struggled in both areas. I'm looking to the Under for a second straight night.
Bet: Under 9 Runs -102 (to -120)
