Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, May 26.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Rockies vs. Cubs, Blue Jays vs. Rangers, Twins vs. Rays, and Pirates vs. Diamondbacks. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, May 26
Rockies vs. Cubs
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +260 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +105 | 8 -105o / -115u | -325 |
LHP Carson Palmquist (COL) vs. RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC)
We have super pitcher-friendly weather at Wrigley on Memorial Day Monday, with 57-degree temps (50-degree real feel) and double-digit breezes blowing toward home plate from left-center field.
The poor weather lowered my projection for this game down to 7.36 runs.
The Under also fits two of our Action Labs PRO Systems.
The first is Wind Blowing In, where Unders are 1254-1060-112 (54.2%) since 2005, generating a 4.5% ROI.
The second is Wrigley Field Unders, where Unders are 295-196-23 (60.1%) since 2005, generating a 15.4% ROI.
Both teams traveled overnight after playing on Sunday for a Monday afternoon spot — I wouldn’t be surprised if the bats were a tad slow on this Memorial Day. Not to mention, Wrigley Field Unders hit at a 61.5% clip and generate an 18.2% ROI when the game starts before 3 p.m. local time.
The Rockies’ offense is historically bad. The lineup boasts a 58 wRC+ with a .569 OPS away from Coors.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 | Play to -115)
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7 -120o / 100u | +135 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7 -120o / 100u | -160 |
RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom remains an elite arm (2.85 xERA, 3.15 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout minus walk rate, 126 Pitching+, 2.19 botERA).
His strikeout minus walk rate has dipped a tad, but that’s because he’s reduced his fastball usage in favor of more curveballs and changeups. He’s consciously trying not to throw as hard early in starts — to reduce injury risk — although he is beginning to dial things up again.
Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman is bouncing back this season after regaining the velocity he lost in 2024.
| Year | xERA / xFIP | K-BB% | Stuff+ / botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.85 / 3.22 | 23.9% | 100 / 3.66 |
| 2024 | 4.71 / 4.22 | 14.0% | 95 / 3.81 |
| 2025 | 3.80 / 3.54 | 19.1% | 102 / 2.99 |
He’s coming off a dominant start against the Padres, tossing seven innings of three-hit shutout ball with nine strikeouts to no walks.
The Blue Jays have the far better offensive lineup, boasting a 100 wRC+ (14th in MLB) to the Rangers’ 83 (26). Since the Corey Seager injury, Toronto has posted a 118 wRC+ (sixth) compared to Texas’s 82 (26th).
The Blue Jays also have the better bullpen, ranking in the top two among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate.
The Rangers typically have a solid defensive edge in most matchups, but the Blue Jays are also a top-five defensive squad, neutralizing that advantage.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+140 | Play to +133)
Twins vs. Rays
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -110o / -110u | -120 |
RHP Chris Paddack (MIN) vs. RHP Zack Littell (TBR)
Overs are just 13-19-1 (40.6%) at Steinbrenner Field, but wind and weather heavily influence the scoring environment.
| Wind Direction | Over Record |
|---|---|
| Straight Out, To Left, To Right | 8-8-1 |
| Straight In, From Left, From Right | 1-5 |
| Left to Right | 4-3-1 |
| Right to Left | 0-3 |
We’re getting hitter-friendly weather on Monday, with 87-degree temps (95-degree real feel) and a slight breeze heading out toward the fences.
The Park Factor is relatively hitter-friendly in a limited sample, with a +21% Home Run Factor, -21% Double Factor, and -46% Triple Factor. For context, Yankee Stadium also suppresses extra-base hits (-9% Double Factor, -49% Triple Factor) while boosting homers (+19% Home Run Factor), but the wind and heat play a bigger role in Tampa.
Both starting pitchers are fly-ball guys with a sub-40% groundball rate. As a result, both Chris Paddack (4.90 xERA, 2.12 HR/9 allowed) and Zack Littell (4.24 xERA, 1.21 HR/9 allowed) are home-run prone.
I project 9.74 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 9 (+100 | Play to -118)
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -120o / 100u | +155 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9 -120o / 100u | -185 |
LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI)
The roof should be closed in Arizona for the entire series for Pittsburgh, which should slightly decrease the scoring environment.
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson is a competitive back-end starter (4.30 xERA, 14.6% strikeout minus walk rate, 109 Stuff+) who is finally stretched out after spending the early part of the year in the bullpen — he’s back in the rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez on the IL.
Aside from Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh’s lineup is lifeless (75 wRC+, 66 wRC+ on the road). But the Pirates are a top-10 defensive team.
Pirates starter Andrew Heaney is due for negative regression (2.91 ERA, 4.38 xERA). However, the Snakes are about 12% worse against southpaws (96 wRC+) compared to against righties (108 wRC+).
I project 8.43 runs for this matchup.
It’s worth mentioning that the Diamondbacks are a good survivor pool pick this week (at home against the Pirates and Nationals), unless you have yet to use the Mets (at home against the White Sox and Rockies).
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, May 26
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Brewers ML (+135 | Play to +123)
- Orioles ML (-104 | Play to -120)
- Blue Jays ML (+140 | Play to +133)
- Giants-Tigers Under 8.5 (-120 | Play to 8 -105)
- Rockies-Cubs Under 8 (-110 | Play to -115)
- Twins-Rays Over 9 (+100 | Play to -118)
- Pirates-Diamondbacks Under 9.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -112)
