Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite MLB predictions for Monday, September 16.
MLB Predictions, Picks & Odds for Monday, September 16
Sean Zerillo's Phillies vs Brewers Over/Under Pick
Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs. Aaron Civale (MIL)
I projected Monday's total in Milwaukee at 7.45 runs and saw actionable value on the Under overnight.
Ranger Suarez (3.38 xERA, 3.18 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+, 3.86 botERA) has seen a downtick in performance since returning from a one-month IL stint with a back strain.
Across four outings, Suarez has permitted 24 hits, six walks, and nine runs in 19 1/3 innings (4.19 ERA, 3.57 xFIP), averaging 91.3 mph on his four-seamer and 90.2 mph on his sinker, with a 76 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 100 Pitching+, and 4.05 botERA.
Before the IL stint, Suarez averaged 92 mph on his four-seamer and 90.9 mph on his sinker, with an 83 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 101 Pitching+, and 3.83 botERA.
In recent seasons, Suarez has pitched through several issues (back, elbow, and hamstring). While pitching at a lower velocity level than in the first half, you can still expect Ranger's floor somewhere in the range of his 2023 results (4.36 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, 4.14 botERA).
Aaron Civale has pitched well for the Brewers (3.84 ERA, 4.51 xFIP) since his trade away from the Rays in early July. He's changed his pitch mix since arriving in Milwaukee, throwing a sinker (29.3%) or slider (16.8%) nearly half the time, compared to 38.6% combined in Tampa Bay.
Both bullpens rank highly in pitch modeling metrics (each top six in Pitching+ and botERA in the second half) as well as my projection model. The Brewers have posted better second-half results (3rd in xERA and K-BB%; Phillies are 15th by both metrics).
All key relievers on both sides should be rested and available for Monday.
Bets: Under 8 (-110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Athletics vs Cubs Prediction on the Total
Joey Estes (OAK) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)
I projected Monday's total at Wrigley Field at 7.11 runs with the wind blowing in (5-6 mph from center field) and saw actionable value on the Under overnight.
Wind direction is always crucial at Wrigley, particularly for Shota Imanaga, who has the fifth-highest flyball rate (47.3%) amongst qualified starters this season.
Shota (3.53 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, 20.9% K-BB%, 103 Pithcing+, 3.61 botERA) has proven himself as a No. 2 starter at the MLB level.
And while Oakland's offense has excelled in the second half, they rank much better against righties (8th) than they do against lefties (23rd) over the past thirty days.
Joey Estes (4.21 xERA, 5.15 xFIP, 13.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.80 botERA) is closer to a league-average arm but has justifiability out-pitched his projections (projected FIP range of 4.60 to 5.1) across 21 starts (22 appearances) this season.
Estes does catch Chicago in their better split (5th vs. righties, 9th vs. lefties in the second half), but both bullpens have struggled of late, ranking in the bottom ten for both xFIP and K-BB% since the trade deadline.
However, there's no value on the first five innings under (projected 3.82, listed 3.5). I like both starting pitchers to get through six innings, but we may have to sweat out the Under with two shaky bullpens.
Bets: Under 8 (7.5, -105 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Pirates vs Cardinals Moneyline Prediction
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Andre Pallante (STL)
Paul Skenes (2.69 xERA, 2.69 xFIP, 25.6% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 3.66 botERA) now stands at 147 1/3 professional innings in 2024 after tossing 129 1/3 between college and the minor leagues last season.
While it seemed like the Pirates, who are dead last in the National League, would shut down the best pitching prospect on the planet by early to mid-September, Skenes seems closer to pitching out the schedule (three more starts, including Monday) than starting his first MLB offseason prematurely.
Skenes' velocity has rebounded after dipping in August (97.7 and 97.9 mph in consecutive starts); he's averaged 99.0 and 99.3 mph in each of his past two outings, his highest levels since late June:
While his results each time through the batting order (.610 OPS in 1st PA, .550 in 2nd PA, .558 in 3rd PA) don't show a discernible split as of yet, Skenes' K-BB% (and particularly the strikeout rate) does decrease each time through (35.1% to 25.1% to 16%).
Andre Pallante (3.69 xERA, 4.11 xFIP, 7.3% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 4.78 botERA) will continually underwhelm in pitch modeling metrics and projections. Pallante avoids barrels (3.5% career) and keeps the ball on the ground (66.6% career), as does any pitcher in baseball. Pallante's outlier skillset is something that pitching models don't accurately capture (career 3.91 ERA, 4.16 FIP).
Pallante forces the Pirates into their lesser split (84 wRC+, 28th vs. righties; 92 wRC+, 22nd vs. lefties), and the Cardinals have the bullpen advantage too.
Since the trade deadline, St. Louis ranks 17th in bullpen xFIP, 18th in K-BB%, 3rd in Pitching+, and 3rd in botERA; Pittsburgh ranks 30th, 27th, 26th, and 27th by the same four indicators over the same span. And I projected the Cardinals near +105 in this matchup.
Regarding Skenes's chances of winning the NL Rookie of the Year award, note that his current WAR total (3.6) is a full win behind Jackson Merill (4.6).
In 2022, Spencer Strider finished with a higher WAR total (4.9) than Michael Harris II (4.8), yet Harris still received 18 of the 30 first-place votes. If voters continue to let WAR drive their decision-making (18 of the last 24 winners finished first in their league, with an average ranking of 1.45), Merrill should win by a similar margin.
Still, given the significant hype around Skenes all season (projected for 19 of 30 first-place votes before September), a potential east-coast bias among voters, and the possibility that Skenes pushes his ERA below 2.00 (currently 2.10), I'd consider hedging on the rookie righty (+450 at FandDuel) if you previously joined me on Merrill.
Bets: Cardinals Full-Game Moneyline (+115 or better)
Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, September 16
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (pass after lineups
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Colorado Rockies, Under 11 (+100, 0.25u) at BallyBet (taking a piece off of Over 11)
- Oakland Athletics / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to 7.5, -105)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+127, 0.5u; bet to +115)
