Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, May 13.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews
Phillies vs. Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 7.5 -110o/ -110u | -1.5 +136 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 7.5 -110o/ -110u | +1.5 -164 |
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
As we approach the quarter pole of the regular season, the Phillies (28-13) have the best record in baseball and are playing at a 111-win pace. However, they have only played two series against teams with winning records (Atlanta and San Diego). Philadelphia's schedule has one team currently above .500 (Texas) for the remainder of May.
Since the start of the season, I have downgraded Sean Manaea and substantially upgraded Cristopher Sanchez. If these two faced off on Opening Day, I would have made the Mets -114 favorites — instead, after factoring in data points from 2024, I have this matchup set closer to a pick'em price.
That said, I'd still bet the Mets at +109 or better.
Manaea has the worst K-BB% of his career (7.9% vs. 15.3% career), but the Mets bullpen is pitching at an elite level, ranking third in xFIP (3.55), second in K-BB% (18.7%) and first in Stuff+ (111).
I love watching Reed Garrett pitch pic.twitter.com/o1sDtMReQC
— jack (@Jolly_Olive) May 13, 2024
Conversely, the Phillies bullpen ranks seventh or eighth by the same three indicators.
If Manaea can keep the score tight against Sanchez (3.63 xERA in 2024; 3.74 in 2023), the Mets could steal the game in the late innings.
Bet: Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+109 or better)
Cubs vs. Braves
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+122 | 8 -105o/ -115u | +1.5 -184 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-144 | 8 -105o/ -115u | -1.5 +150 |
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)
Shota Imanaga continues to get favorable pitching conditions — he'll have 11-12 mph winds at his back, blowing in from left-center field on Tuesday at Truist Park.
On a typical day, I'd set this total closer to 8.2, but after adjusting for the wind, I set this total at 7.3.
Additionally, the conditions triggered our Action Labs system for Wind Blowing In, which has generated a 5.5% ROI since 2005 and a 3.3% ROI since 2019:
Imanaga is due for negative regression. His .239 BABIP, 90.6% strand rate and 5.6% HR/FB rate should all eventually move toward league averages of .287, 71.6% and 10.8%, respectively.
He's due for a day his high fly-ball rate (49%) leads to several dingers.
Still, the wind on Monday should help Imanaga avoid the long ball, and he'll be tough to beat when he keeps the ball in the yard (2.31 xERA).
Bet: Under 8 (-119 or 7.5, +100 or better)
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8 -114o/ -106u | +1.5 -188 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-134 | 8 -114o/ -106u | -1.5 +155 |
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. Collin Rea (MIL)
After a breakout 2023 campaign (4.18 xERA, 3.70 xFIP, 18.8% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+), Mitch Keller has regressed this season (4.65 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, 13.3% K-BB%, 100 Stuff+) and is pitching more in line with his career averages (4.10 xFIP, 14% K-BB%, 102 Stuff+).
Keller posted a career-best 9.7% swinging-strike rate last season — that has dipped to 8.6% in 2024 (8.7% in 2022). His strikeout rate (21%) has also dropped below the MLB average (22.4%). Additionally, Keller's hard-hit rate (44.2%) is at its highest since 2021.
The Pirates need innings from Keller in this contest; their bullpen is worn down following a pair of exhausting games against the Cubs. Pittsburgh used six relievers to navigate the final 15 outs of Paul Skenes's MLB debut on Saturday. The Bucs again deployed Kyle Nicolas and their two best relievers — Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar — on Sunday, giving the Brewers a sizable bullpen edge on Monday.
Lastly, the Pirates have hit lefties (110 wRC+, 11th) well but rank last against right-handed pitching (74 wRC+, 30th) this season – a differential that shows up (although not as drastic) in multiyear offensive splits too.
Bet: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (-143 or better)
Guardians vs. Rangers
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 8.5 -115o/ -105u | -1.5 +155 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 8.5 -115o/ -105u | +1.5 -188 |
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. Michael Lorenzen (TEX)
According to my model, the Guardians and Rangers are two of the better defensive teams in baseball. As of Saturday morning, they are tied for fourth with 19 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Texas ranked sixth (+36) and Cleveland 13th (+21) last season. Per Outs Above Average (OAA), Texas ranks eighth (+8) and Cleveland 18th (-2). The Rangers and Guardians ranked third and eighth, respectively, in 2023.
The Guardians have an argument for the best bullpen in baseball this season, too. They have an MLB-best 2.65 FIP (Oakland is the nearest team, at 3.14), 3.26 xFIP, 20.1% K-BB%, and are tied for fifth in Stuff+.
Scott Barlow, Filthy Curveballs…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/1excMty0kY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2024
The Rangers' relievers aren't quite as dominant (22nd in xFIP, 22nd in K-BB% and 13th in Stuff+). Still, they also have clear "A" Group and "B" Group of relievers, and Jose Urena, who typically headlines the B Group, pitched seven innings on Sunday.
Texas should toss its key relievers in a close and competitive game on Monday, and I set this total at 7.99 runs.
Bet: Under 9 (8.5, -110 or better)
Royals vs. Mariners
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+124 | 7 -106o/ -114u | +1.5 -178 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-146 | 7 -106o/ -114u | -1.5 +146 |
Brady Singer (KCR) vs. George Kirby (SEA)
Brady Singer has pushed his strikeout rate to a career-best 25.1% this season — a significant move forward after falling from 24.2% to 18.9% from 2022 to 2023. However, he's also been incredibly lucky (.233 BABIP, 84.9% stand rate) to carry a 2.36 ERA (4.03 xERA).
Additionally, Singer's velocity (92.2 mph fastball) and pitch modeling metrics (85 Stuff+, 102 Location+) align more closely with 2023 (92.1 mph fastball, 84 Stuff+, 100 Location+) than 2022 (93.8 mph fastball, 91 Stuff+, 102 Location+). He's getting by with elite command, but I don't know if his current level (16.9% K-BB) is sustainable without improved velocity and stuff.
I like Singer toward the lower end of his projected ERA range (4.11 to 4.51) for the remainder of the 2024 season.
Conversely, George Kirby has been a bit unlucky this season (4.15 ERA, 3.30 xERA, 3.32 xFIP) while retaining the best command in baseball (24 walks in 234 innings since the start of 2023). I view Kirby toward the more optimistic end of his projected ERA range (3.46 to 3.55).
Moreover, the Mariners have a substantial bullpen advantage. Seattle ranks 12th in bullpen xFIP, sixth in K-BB% and 11th in Stuff+. Kansas City's bullpen ranks 28th, 30th and 30th, respectively, in the same three categories.
Bet: Mariners F5 Moneyline (-151 or better) | Mariners Full-Game Moneyline (-145 or better)
Rockies vs. Padres
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+176 | 8.5 +104o/ -128u | +1.5 -126 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 8.5 +104o/ -128u | -1.5 +105 |
Dakota Hudson (COL) vs. Randy Vasquez (SD)
Since the start of the 2023 season, the Rockies rank 30th in wRC+ against right-handed (80 wRC+) and left-handed (75 wRC+) pitching, whether at home or on the road.
I'm high on Randy Vasquez and I expect to find ways to keep betting on him going forward. We'll look for a strikeout prop in the morning.
In a limited sample for the Padres this season, the 25-year-old has posted a 107 Stuff+ rating, including a plus slider, plus curveball and an above-average sinker.
Lot to like from Padres Randy Vásquez's short start tonight vs. CHI.
In 4 1/3 IP tonight:
➡️10 Whiffs
➡️33 Whiff% & 50% O-Swing% on the Curveball
➡️ 6 K’s totalStill needs to be better v. LHHs, but the upside & raw stuff is certainly there. pic.twitter.com/jmgGCx5Lue
— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) May 8, 2024
Even with Dakota Hudson (5.19 xERA, 5.25 xFIP, -1.2% K-BB%) on the mound for the Rockies, I only set this total at 7.8 runs.
Bet: Padres F5 Moneyline (-205 or better) | Under 8.5 (-116 or better)
Dodgers vs. Giants
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | -1.5 -111 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | +1.5 -108 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. Jordan Hicks (SF)
On a typical night in San Francisco, I would set this total closer to 7.86 runs, but I had to bump the run-scoring environment up a touch. I set my total at 8.03 runs with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.
The Dodgers have the top spot offensively against right-handed pitching this season (131 wRC+) and rank fourth against lefties (125 wRC+). The Giants are below league average in both categories (18th and 17th, respectively).
Both bullpens rank around average but have seemingly underachieved compared to more optimistic projections. The Giants rank 11th in xFIP and 14th in K-BB%, compared to fifth in Stuff+. Surprisingly, the Dodgers are 24th in reliever Stuff+, 14th in xFIP and 12th in K-BB%.
Bet: Over 7.5 (-110 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, May 13
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-145, 0.25u) at BetMGM (bet to -150)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-140, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -150)
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to -180)
- Chicago Cubs / Atlanta Braves, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -119 or 7.5 +100)
- Cleveland Guardians / Texas Rangers, Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -110)
- Colorado Rockies / San Diego Padres, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-180, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -190)
- Los Angeles Dodgers / San Francisco Giants, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Miami Marlins (+152, 0.25u) at Superbook (small to +141)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-130, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -143)
- New York Mets (+113, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +109)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-176, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -205)
- Seattle Mariners F5 (-140, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -151)
- Seattle Mariners (-135, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -145)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Boston Red Sox, Under 8.5 (-102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -106)
