Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, July 29.
MLB Predictions | Picks, Odds, Previews for Monday (7/29)
Luis Gil (NYY) vs. Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Zack Wheeler (2.93 xERA, 19.5% K-BB%, 105 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+) showed zero indicators of concern (100 Stuff+ and velocity at 95.1 mph, in line with the season average) in his last start against the Twins — his first in two weeks after skipping his final outing before the All-Star Game with back soreness.
Luis Gil (3.28 xERA, 16.8% K-BB%, 111 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+) has continued to make his case for AL Rookie of the Year honors. Gil (2.2 WAR; projected 2.8-3.1 end-of-season WAR) is +300 as of Monday morning, behind Colton Cowser at +225 (2.7 current; projected 3.2-3.5) and ahead of Wyatt Langford at +500 (0.7 WAR; projected 1.4-1.6).
Four AL rookie hitters have caught my attention over the past few weeks. Two in particular who have surged up the odds board in July, Austin Wells (+700) and Colt Keith (+1000), are guys we bet preseason at +7000 and +1600, respectively.
Wells (2.4 WAR; projected 3.1-3.6) has been hitting cleanup behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, although he may move lower in the order with Giancarlo Stanton returning from the IL. Since June 1, the rookie catcher has a 158 wRC+ and a .269/.391/.516 triple-slash line. Defensively, on the season, he's tied with his teammate, Jose Trevino, with eight Defensive Runs Saved — behind Cal Raleigh (12), Patrick Bailey (12), and Christian Vazquez (9).
Austin Wells has ditched his larger leg kick for a much shorter one, with the change seemingly coming against the Mets on June 25th.
Since making that change, he has a 164 wRC+ and 4 HRs in 16 games 🔥 pic.twitter.com/D8Km3ywjzT
— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) July 19, 2024
To digress from the Yankees-Phillies game quickly, the Tigers' Keith — who has posted a 219 wRC+ with seven homers and three triples in July — likely falls short in awards consideration by end-of-season WAR (1.3 current, 1.8-2.1 projected) even if he has two more big offensive months. He's been woeful defensively (-8 DRS), ranking among the worst defensive second-basemen in MLB (Thairo Estrada -8, Jonathan India -9).
Two other hitters who should have your attention are the Angels' Nolan Schanuel (0.9 current, 1.2-1.7 projected) and the A's Lawrence Butler (1.9 current, 2.2-2.6 projected). Schanuel posted more walks (16) than strikeouts (12) in July and makes incredible swing decisions for a 22-year-old hitter. Still, like Keith, he'd need two monster months at the plate to overcome the lack of defensive value. Butler has potentially been baseball's best hitter in July (265 wRC+, .390 AVG., 17 extra-base hits) while playing above-average right-field defense (+1 DRS, +1 OAA); and he may be underprojected by the updated rest-of-season numbers.
Returning to the matchup, I'm curious to see how Aaron Boone builds the Yankees' lineup with Stanton back in the mix and whether Wells keeps a prime position in the batting order. If Wells maintains the cleanup role against Wheeler — with Stanton batting fifth or sixth behind him against a righty — it'd be an encouraging sign for his chances of securing end-of-season honors.
I would have given the Yankees the offensive advantage in this matchup regardless, but it increases with Stanton back in the fold. I project their lineup for a 123 wrC+ against a right-handed starter, compared to a 113 wrC+ for the Phillies. Anthony Volpe (88 wRC+) is the only player in the Yankees' lineup with below-average splits against righties over the past few seasons; conversely, the Phillies have three such projected starters.
Bets: Yankees F5 Moneyline (+130 or better) | Yankees Full-Game Moneyline (+130 or better)
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. Jose Quintana (NYM)
The Mets drafted Simeon Woods Richardson in 2018 before flipping him in a package for Marcus Stroman. And the Blue Jays subsequently traded Woods Richardson to the Twins in a package for Jose Berrios.
The Twins may end up winning the trade tree. The rookie righty is under team control through 2029 and has shown solid skills in his first full season (3.74 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) after a pair of spot starts (9 2/3 innings combined) in 2022 and 2023. His solid command provides a consistently high floor, and I also give Minnesota the bullpen edge in this matchup.
The Mets need rotation help if they want to make a playoff run. Despite a 4.02 ERA, Jose Quintana is showing career-worst indicators (5.21 xERA, 10.0% K-BB%, 83 StufF+, 98 Location+, 93 Pitching+, 5.27 botERA) and the Mets' starting pitching is a potential house of cards.
Both offenses have been hot lately, but the Twins' have the better and deeper position player group. I project their lineup for a 125 wRC+ against a left-handed starter, compared to a 114 wRC+ for the Mets against a right-handed pitcher.
Bets: Twins F5 Moneyline (+100 or better) | Twins Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS)
You can probably draw a line through Pivetta's rough outing in Colorado — where sweepers and sliders often go to die.
Pivetta's sweeper (152 Stuff+) is one of the best pitches in baseball — and an offering he throws nearly 30% of the time — highlighting an arsenal with the highest Stuff+ figure (134) and Pitching+ rating (109) among qualified starters (min. 70 innings).
Among that group of 126 pitchers, Pivetta owns the fourth-best fastball (127 Stuff+; tied with Taj Bradley, just behind Gil), the second-best slider or sweeper (152 Stuff; ahead of Sonny Gray), the sixth-best cutter (112; behind Dylan Cease), and the 18th-best curveball (110; tied with Gilbert, Max Fried, and Zach Eflin).
The overall profiles for Pivetta (3.68 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+) and Logan Gilbert (3.14 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+) are relatively comparable.
And the bullpens are closer than you might expect — although the Mariners' key relievers are slightly more rested after a sweep against the White Sox. At the same time, the Red Sox threw nearly all of their arms on consecutive days on Friday and Saturday in a grueling series against the Yankees.
Boston has a severe offensive advantage over Seattle, projecting for a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (110 on the season, 8th), compared to a 98 wRC+ for the Mariners (96 on the season, 19th).
Over the past thirty days, Boston ranks 1st against against righties (144 wRC+), while Seattle is 22nd (96).
Bets: Red Sox F5 Moneyline (-118 or better) | Red Sox Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better) | Under 8.5 (-105 or better)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Jake Bloss (HOU)
I see multiple data points that suggest the possibility that Paul Skenes is wearing down.
Skeens debuted with extra adrenaline, averaging 100.1 mph on his fastball, before settling in at 99.3 mph on average through June 23. In his past four starts, however, Skenes' velocity is down a half tick to 98.5 mph, and his pitch modeling metrics have dipped too.
Skenes most recently saw a slight velocity uptick after a whole week's rest between starts. Still, I'd expect Skenes to settle back closer to 95.5 to 96 mph on Monday — and one tick up or down in velocity is worth about a third of a run adjustment to a season-long ERA projection.
Through June 23, Skenes posted a 112 Stuff+ figure (113 fastball, 137 slider, 112 curveball, 88 changeup) with a 107 Location+ and 110 Pitching+ rating. In four starts since, those numbers have decreased to 103 Stuff+ (101 fastball, 131 slider, 105 curveball, 83 changeup), 99 Location+, and 100 Pitching+.
Additionally, Skenes posted a 2.59 botERA, calculated independently from Pitching+, through June 23, compared to a 3.81 mark in the four starts since.
The Pirates have struggled against right-handed pitching all season (83 wRC+, 29th; 93 wRC+, 24th over the past thirty days), but pitching models don't mind Jake Bloss (105 Pitching+, 3.81 botERA) even though he's been battered in a limited sample (5.78 xERA through three starts).
The Astros have a clear bullpen and position player advantage and can pull the home upset at a juicy number if Bloss keeps the game close against Skenes.
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, July 29
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (+115, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -101)
- Boston Red Sox F5 (-110, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -118)
- Boston Red Sox (-108, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -115)
- Boston Red Sox / Seattle Mariners, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -105)
- Chicago Cubs / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -110)
- Cleveland Guardians (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -117)
- Cleveland Guardians F5 (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -115)
- Kansas City Royals / Chicago White Sox, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Houston Astros (+140, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +125)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (+105, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +100)
- Minnesota Twins (+109, 0.5u; bet to +100)
- New York Yankees F5 (+163, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +130)
- New York Yankees (+133, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +130)
- Parlay (+133, 0.25u): Atlanta Braves F5 +1.5 (-230) & New York Yankees F5 +1.5 (-162)
- Texas Rangers / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 8.5 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -115)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Baltimore Orioles, Game 2 (-109, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to -117)
