Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, July 1.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks & Previews
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. RHP Yariel Rodriguez (TOR)
Hunter Brown is a positive regression candidate, as his ERA is currently sitting at 4.37, but his xERA is at 3.33. He grades out really well by Stuff+ having a rating of 104 and also has a Pitching+ rating of 103.
Everything for Brown starts with his fastball. He throws it a little over 38% of the time and has been very successful with it. It has good velocity sitting at 95.6 mph and opposing hitters only have a .298 xwOBA against it. He does a really good job throwing it up in the zone where he gets on top of opposing hitters barrels with his 16.8 inches of induced vertical break. That has allowed him to put up a 33.3% CSW% (called strike & whiff rate), which is in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers.
All of his other pitches have been extremely effective because they're all allowing under a .300 xwOBA to opposing hitters and are producing high whiff rates. Outside of fastballs, the Blue Jays do tend to struggle and are very average against right handed pitching.
Yariel Rodriguez will be on the mound for the Blue Jays and the biggest question is: how far does he go in this game? He's was used as an opener against the Red Sox in his last start, so if the Blue Jays decide to go for more of a bullpen game, that might suit them a lot better to play matchups. If Rodriguez does fully start, he projects to be a very average MLB pitcher as his Stuff+ is at 99.
Both bullpens are almost fully available and these two teams are top 10 by defensive rating. I only have 8.1 runs projected so I like the value on Under 8.5 runs at +100.
Pick:Under 8.5 (+100 via DraftKings)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -108 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 102o / -124u | -108 |
LHP David Peterson (NYM) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (WAS)
David Peterson is currently sitting with an expected ERA over six, but that really doesn't tell the full story. It is based on a small five start sample size and as the last two years have proven, he's an average MLB starting pitcher.
By Stuff+ he is below average, but that is mainly because his fastball is well below average. His other main two pitches of sinker and slider actually grade out at 103 and 112. He does do an elite job of generating groundballs at 52.4% because he lives down in the zone with his arsenal. He will be facing a Nationals lineup that has the third worst wRC+ against left handed pitching.
Mackenzie Gore has been awesome this season. He has a 3.79 xERA and his Stuff+ numbers are off the charts. However, I'm not sure this is the best of matchups for him. He is someone that relies on his fastball a lot, throwing it 54% of the time and primarily up in the zone. It's the one pitch that opposing hitters have had success against, as they have a .326 xwOBA. The Mets not only have the third best wRC+ against left handed pitching, but they're also the best team in baseball by xwOBA against left handed fastballs.
The Mets have an advantage in the bullpen, as they have a much better Stuff+ rating and xFIP, along with an advantage defensively, as the Nationals have the fifth worst defensive rating in baseball.
Even though Gore is a much better starting pitcher than Peterson, the Mets have advantages in every other aspect of this game, so I think there are undervalued at -108.
Pick: Mets ML (-108 via FanDuel)
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -113 | 11.5 -106o / -114u | -166 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 11.5 -106o / -114u | +140 |
RHP Bryse Wilson (MIL) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (COL)
Bryse Wilson has not been good since moving to the starting rotation. As a starter, he has a 5.41 xFIP with an incredibly high 4.54 BB/9 rate. Of his three main pitches, his curveball is the only one that grades out above 100 by Stuff+, so his cutter and sinker have been getting crushed. Both pitches are allowing over a .330 xwOBA and have contributed to his home run problem. Coors Field is not the place you want to pitch if you are struggling to keep the ball inside the yard.
He may be in trouble because the Rockies are above average against both right handed cutters and curveballs and have hit much better at home this season than on the road.
Austin Gomber is simply a terrible MLB starting pitcher. His xERA is up at 4.89, which is actually quite generous considering a lot of projection models have him at more of a 5.4 ERA type of pitcher. He's really reliant on his well below average fastball that only averages 90.2 mph and is allowing a .400 xwOBA to opposing hitters.
He, like Wilson also has a home run problem when pitching in Coors Field, as he has a 14.6% HR/FB rate. He may do alright on Monday, as the Brewers are below average against left handed pitching, but in reality, any lineup could hit him around.
The Brewers have massive advantage defensively and in their bullpen, but I am not laying -160 on the road with Bryse Wilson on the mound.
Pick:Pass
