Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find my projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, August 5.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 5)
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Andre Pallante (STL)
Hot temperatures in St. Louis (94 degrees at first pitch) should increase the run-scoring environment at Busch Stadium on Monday.
Still, Andre Pallante (3.56 xERA, 9.8% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+) generally keeps the ball on the ground (67.5% career groundball rate) and in the yard (career 0.76 HR/9).
Since Pallante joined the majors in 2022, he has the second-highest groundball rate, behind Clay Holmes (70%), and the sixth lowest barrel rate (3.6%) among 424 qualified pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched).
Sean Manaea (4.30 xERA, 14% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+) enters off one of the best starts of his career (7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K) against a dangerous opponent in Minnesota.
I view both starting pitchers as league-average arms, but I am high on the relief units for both teams – who each rank in the top 10 in xFIP this season.
Despite the heat, I projected this total at 8.26 runs.
Bets: Under 9 (-118 or 8.5 +100 or better)
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs. Roddery Munoz (MIA)
Roddery Munoz wasn't expected to make the majors this season—let alone start 12 games. When he was first called up, Munoz didn't have any 2024 projections on his Fangraphs page, and he owned a 7% K-BB% and 5.9 xFIP in Triple-A at the time.
Across 66 innings, he's posted a 6.14 xERA (1st percentile), 5.17 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB% (31st percentile K%, 16th BB%), 93 Stuff+, and a 94 Pitching+ figure – and ranks in the bottom 43 percent – or lower – of all statcast metrics save for fastball velocity.
His rest-of-season projections call for a FIP range of 5.08 to 5.63; Munoz is a replacement-level arm.
He's permitted a 13.8% barrel rate – the second-highest among starting pitchers this season (behind Taijuan Walker). If Munoz were a hitter, that barrel rate would be tied with Vladimir Guerrrero Jr. (18th).
The Reds will likely deploy Nick Martinez – who was expected to move on trade deadline day but ended up tossing four innings in a win – as their starter or bulk reliever on Monday.
Aside from his called-strike plus whiff rate, which is at a three-year low, Martinez (3.15 xERA, 16.3% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) has otherwise shown career-best indicators across five starts and 31 appearances.
Cincinnati has the far superior offense (projected 103 vs. 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitching) and a severe pitching advantage for the first five innings (F5) – with two or more arms against a rookie whose struggles at Triple-A have unsurprisingly continued in the big leagues.
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (-145 or better) | Reds Full-Game Moneyline (-130 or better)
David Festa (MIN) vs. Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
After adjusting for the weather (80 degrees at first pitch) and wind (blowing in 8 mph from center field), I downgraded Monday's total at Wrigley Field by more than 10% compared to a typical day, from 8.3 to 7.37 runs.
Moreover, this game triggered a trio of profitable Action Labs systems for Under bettors.
The most profitable of those systems is for Wrigley Field Unders, which has generated a 60% win rate and 15.4% ROI since 2005.
In the past five years, the system has a 55.1% win rate and a 5.9% ROI.
Two other Action Labs systems triggered for the wind and weather; one with a lifetime 57.6% win rate and 10.7% ROI, and the other with a 54.6% win rate and 5.3% ROI.
Since 2019, the former has had a 54.2% win rate and 4.5% ROI, while the latter owns a 53.1% win rate and 2.3% ROI.
An implosion from Kyle Hendricks (5.06 xERA, 9.2% K-BB%) is always in play, but I have seen him thrive pitching to contact with the wind at his back at Wrigley.
Bets: Under 8.5 (8, -115 or better)
Sean Zerillo's Astros vs Rangers MLB Best Bet: Back The Rangers Defense On The Moneyline
Astros vs. Rangers
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Andrew Heaney (TEX)
Hunter Brown (3.51 xERA, 16.4% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 4.22 botERA) is the superior pitcher to Andrew Heaney (4.04 xERA, 16.1% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 3.76 botERA).
Still, the latter has seemingly split the difference between his excellent 2022 (3.39 xERA, 29.4% K-BB%) with the Dodgers and his disappointing 2023 season in Arlington (4.55 xERA, 14.2% K-BB%), the first of two-year, $25m pact with the Rangers.
Heaney underperformed (4.45 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) on poor defensive Angels teams throughout his career. Still, the Rangers (1st in Outs Above Average or OAA, 5th in Defensive Runs Saved or DRS) are excellent for protecting a mid-thirties innings eater with a declining strikeout rate.
Texas has the defensive advantage over Houston (11th in OAA, 21st in DRS) in this matchup.
Despite Houston's offensive edge (projected 116 vs. 102 wRC+) and bullpen advantage, I still project the Rangers as -114 favorites (53.3% implied) in a divisional rivalry game, which seemingly turn into coinflips more often than not.
Bets: Rangers F5 Moneyline (+100 or better) | Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (-105 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, August 5
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- Cincinnati Reds F5 (-137, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -150)
- Cincinnati Reds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -130)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (flat to -130)
- Minnesota Twins / Chicago Cubs, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 8, -115)
- New York Mets / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -118 or 8.5, +100)
- Texas Rangers F5 (+108, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +100)
- Texas Rangers (+108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
