Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, August 19.
MLB Predictions Monday, Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (August 19)
Sean Zerillo's Rays vs Athletics MLB Best Bet
Taj Bradley (TB) vs. Joe Boyle (OAK)
As of Sunday night, Oakland's full-game moneyline was the only wager at an actionable pricepoint for Monday's slate.
The two teams were on opposite ends of extra-inning affairs on Sunday.
The Rays won 8-7 in 12 innings after blowing a six-run lead when Pete Fairbanks allowed a game-tying, three-run ninth-inning homer. The A's fell 4-2 to the Giants after stranding the bases loaded with no outs in the bottom of the 10th.
Typically, I'd give the Rays a clear bullpen edge (2nd vs. 14th in both K-BB% and xFIP in the second half), but I only give them a slight advantage (about 0.15 runs on a season-long ERA) for Monday's matchup.
Tampa Bay used seven arms on Sunday — including Fairbanks — who was subsequently placed on the IL – as part of an extended bullpen game. They used five pitchers on Saturday and four on Friday, while Oakland had a rare off-day on Friday and only used four pitchers each of the past two days.
Taj Bradley (3.49 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%) provides a clear starting pitching advantage over Joe Boyle (7.39 ERA, 4.88 xERA, 5.9% K-BB%).
Pitching models like the stuff for both starters (115 Stuff+ for Bradley, 111 for Boyle), but both righties struggle with command (97 Location+ for Bradley, 89 for Boyle). Bradley's botERA (4.59; 4.34 career) is much closer to Boyle's (5.14) than the rest of their indicators.
Bradley went on a wicked run in June and July (combined 2.56 ERA), but became overvalued in the betting market. He's 0-3 in his past three starts while allowing 21 hits, 15 runs, four homers, and six walks against 15 strikeouts over 14 innings pitched. Additionally, his botERA is 5.12 across those three outings.
Boyle (career 14.6% walk rate) has awful command and a bottomless floor in any start. Boyle has walked at least three hitters in seven of eight outings this season. Still, I think the market has Boyle adequately measured as a replacement-level starter — it's just been too high on Bradley for about a month.
Oakland has the better offense against righties both on the season (15th vs. 22nd in wRC+) and since the All-Star Break (9th vs. 19th).
Oakland should have a chance to pull the upset if Boyle doesn't dig too deep of a hole early.
Bets: Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (+115 or Better) | Over 7.5 (-110 or better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Team Futures Update
The Yankees and Orioles are deadlocked in the AL East. However, PECOTA still has New York winning the division about 75% of the time (-300 implied), while the Bat X is closer to 65% (-186 implied), and Fangraphs is the low mark at 60% (-149 implied).
Regardless of the projection you like, there's seemingly value in betting the Yankees to win the AL East (-135 or 57.5% implied at FanDuel) — but I wouldn't go past -150. The teams have comparable remaining schedules (21st and 22nd in difficulty) and one head-to-head series left in the Bronx from September 24-26.
Minnesota is around +175 to win the AL Central with under 40 games left. All projections think the listed odds are correct, giving Minnesota just a 31-33% chance (+223 to +203 implied) to win the division. I'd pass at this point and am less interested in their pennant and World Series futures without Joe Ryan.
The AL West appears to be all but over; PECOTA has Houston as high as 90% (-900 implied), and you can take as low as -550 (84.6% implied).
Projections have the Dodgers as high as 85% (-568 implied) and as low as 74% (-284 implied) to win the NL West, with San Diego as optimistic as 17% (+488 implied) to overcome a three-game deficit. You could justify a small poke on the Padres (+650 at FanDuel) to win the West, but you missed the optimal buying opportunity.
I'd put the Padres' fair World Series odds around +1300 and their pennant odds around +600 and would take +1400 and +700 or better, respectively, if I didn't have those positions already.
If you're looking for a longshot, the Giants — with Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Robbie Ray — could have an elite rotation if they make October, but only have a 4-7% chance of overcoming a four-game deficit.
The AL team currently out of the wild-card position that I like to make a run is the Boston Red Sox. I'll consider taking Red Sox futures on Thursday after the conclusion of their current road trip and before a seven-game homestand.
You can justify value on Boston currently. The Red Sox have a wide range of outcomes (30-40%) to make the playoffs, with PECOTA the most optimistic projection at 40% and +150 implied odds, compared to +160 listed around the betting market.
Still, Boston's odds will tick higher this week unless they steal a series against the red-hot Astros in Houston.
Sean Zerillo's MLB Betting Picks for Monday, August 19
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- AL East: New York Yankees (-135, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -150)
- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-190, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to -202)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Miami Marlins, Under 8.5 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -120 or 8, -102)
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Mets, Under 9 (-118, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -121 or 8.5, -102)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (+148, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +128)
- Oakland Athletics (+126, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +115)
- Tampa Bay Rays / Oakland Athletics, Over 7.5 (+102, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (flat to -110)
