Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, April 29.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 29)
Cubs vs. Mets
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +176 | 8 +100o / -122u | +104 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -215 | 8 +100o / -122u | -122 |
Jameson Taillon vs. Luis Severino
After battling through injury issues and displaying career-worst results in 2023 (6.65 ERA, 5.89 xERA or expected ERA, 4.83 xFIP or expected FIP), Luis Severino looks rejuvenated this season (2.67 ERA, 3.58 xERA, 3.48 xFIP).
Severino's pitch modeling metrics (102 Stuff+, 105 Location+) align with what he was last year for the Yankees (104 Stuff+, 103 Location+), but he's also added a sinker (14% usage) and sweeper (8% usage) to his arsenal and has seen his ground-ball rate spike to a career-best 58.2% (45.8% career).
Defensively, the Mets have been surprisingly bad, ranking 28th in Defensive Runs Saved (-17) and 26th in Outs Above Average (-7).
New York hasn't fielded a good defensive team in a few seasons, but this 2024 unit—which added Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor and has seen improvement from Brett Baty — is projected as an above-average group, and I expect positive regression moving forward.
Bet: Mets Moneyline (-123 or better)
Rays vs. Brewers
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -108 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -108 |
Ryan Pepiot vs. Bryse Wilson
As expected, the Rays are turning Ryan Pepiot into their new Tyler Glasnow. The 26-year-old righty has posted a 115 Stuff+ rating for Tampa Bay, way up from 98 last season, with five potential above-average offerings (three of which he currently deploys).
The Rays bullpen has been surprisingly shaky, however, with a 5.22 ERA (27th), a 4.72 xFIP (28th), a 9.5% K-BB% (25th) and a 100 Stuff+ rating (25th) as a unit. They project as a significantly better unit in the future, but they are dealing with injuries to a pair of high-leverage relievers (Pete Fairbanks and Colin Poche).
Conversely, Milwaukee's bullpen ranks in the league's top half in all of the data points mentioned — including a 106 Stuff+ rating — without injured closer Devin Williams.
Bryse Wilson (3.50 ERA, 4.58 xERA, 4.04 xFIP) will get the start for the Brewers. They'll hope to get at least four innings before manager Pat Murphy starts to mix and match his relatively well-rested bullpen following a pair of blowout losses to the Yankees.
I like both pitching staffs to suppress scoring on Monday as both teams have a run-prevention identity.
I set the total at 7.6 runs — bet the under to 8 (-105) and play the Brewers (to -110) to pull ahead late with the superior bullpen.
Bets: Brewers Moneyline (-110 or better) | Under 8.5 (or 8, -105 or better)
Twins vs. White Sox
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -162 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +136 |
Joe Ryan vs. Garrett Crochet
The White Sox have been shut out eight times this season, but their offense has found a groove over the last week, averaging 5.3 runs per game.
Scoring against Joe Ryan (3.45 ERA, 2.25 xERA, 2.69 xFIP) could prove difficult. He looks to be in career-best form (29.3% K-BB%) after dialing back his fastball usage and leaning more frequently on his slider, splitter and sweeper. However, he remains vulnerable to the long ball, with a fly-ball rate near 50% and a career home-run rate of 1.48 HR/9.
Garrett Crochet (3.58 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 110 Stuff+) has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season. However, he has permitted 17 runs over his last three outings (11 2/3 innings) while seemingly struggling with command.
Like Ryan, Crochet has had issues serving up homers, and conditions are ripe for hitters on Monday — 70 degrees at first pitch, with 12 mph winds blowing out to left field.
If Crochet can't complete five innings, the White Sox bullpen, which has overachieved this season (20th in ERA, 30th in xFIP, 28th in K-BB%), could eventually implode some totals on their own.
I set this total at 8.1 runs — bet over 7 (to -133) OR over 7.5 (to -114).
Bet: Over 7 (to -133) OR Over 7.5 (to -114)
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 10 -118o / -104u | -142 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 10 -118o / -104u | +120 |
James Paxton vs. Tommy Henry
Tommy Henry has a similarly uninspiring Stuff+ figure (82) as last season, but the southpaw added a sinker to his pitch mix (20% usage) and has seen his ground-ball rate spike to a career-high 50% through five starts.
Henry is showing the best strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%) of his young career (13.4% vs. 7.6% last season and 7.3% in 2022) and performing like a league-average arm (13.6% K-BB% leaguewide), which would represent an improvement on previous forecasts.
If he continues to feature that sinker, I'd expect Henry to pitch toward the more optimistic end of his projected range of outcomes (projected FIP range of 4.52 to 4.80).
James Paxton's level is a complete mystery at the moment. In four starts spanning 20 2/3 innings, he has posted an 11:17 K:BB ratio — suitable for a 6.19 xFIP and 6.90 SIERA —alongside a 2.61 ERA.
Paxton has recorded more walks than strikeouts in consecutive starts, and if you include the end of last season, he's now done that in four of his last six starts.
The left-hander rediscovered his velocity (averaged 95.3 mph) last season, but it fell off as the year progressed. The dip has carried into 2024 (93.5 mph), alongside a decrease in the strikeout rate. He's seen a noticeable decline in Stuff+ (73, down from 89), and it's fairly evident that he's pitching through injury.
I projected the D-backs as slight underdogs in both halves, and I doubt we will continue to get chances to bet against Paxton for much longer.
Lastly, consider betting the under on Paxton's strikeout prop (4.5 or higher) as Arizona has the lowest strikeout rate (18.7%) in the National League after ranking second (20.4%) last season.
Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+115 or better) | James Paxton Under Strikeouts (4.5 or higher)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, April 29
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (+131, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +115)
- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-130, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -133)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-108, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Milwaukee Brewers / Tampa Bay Rays, Under 8.5 (-103, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to 8, -105)
- Minnesota Twins / Chicago White Sox, Over 7 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 7.5, -114)
- New York Mets (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -123)
- San Diego Padres (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
