Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 10.
MLB Predictions Friday | Picks, Odds, Previews (May 10)
Clarke Schmidt vs. Taj Bradley
This pitching matchup is all about platoon splits.
Yankee starter Clarke Schmidt has had consistent problems against lefties, and Rays starter Taj Bradley has struggled with righties.
Bradley makes his season debut for Tampa Bay as the Rays' pitching staff inches closer to being healthy, with the return of Shane Baz coming soon as well. Bradley threw 94 total pitches in his final rehab start in Durham and allowed just one run across six innings while striking out eight. The Rays' right-hander had one of the best fastballs amongst all MLB starters last year by Stuff+. Both his curveball and splitter remain a clear plus pitch, and he's also continued to use the cutter to try to skate by against same-handed hitters.
Because of his arsenal, Bradley surprisingly had reverse splits last year. Lefties had just a .678 OPS against him, while the struggles of the cutter led to problems against righties. Same-side hitters had a .946 OPS against Bradley, and the cutter itself allowed a .581 SLG. Bradley's fastball gives him a pretty high floor, though, and the Rays don't have a ton of lefties to throw at Schmidt.
Schmidt's best secondary pitch is his elite sweeper, which has significant platoon split problems. He has struggled in the past to get lefties out as a result, as lefties had a .875 OPS against him last year. The sample is too small to be meaningful in 2024, but the platoon splits seem lessened now because of his increased cutter usage.
The Rays have a tiny starting pitching advantage here and are the value side at home at +115 or better. Bradley is somewhat unknown in his first MLB start back, but the rehab numbers give plenty of encouragement about him.
I'd also bet the under 8.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Rays ML (+115 or better) | Under 8.5 (-120 or better)
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Lance Lynn vs. Robert Gasser
Robert Gasser makes his MLB debut on Friday night in Milwaukee against the struggling Cardinals.
Not only did St. Louis lose star catcher Willson Contreras this week, but the Cards have lost five consecutive games and are now seven out of first in an NL Central quickly getting away from them.
Lance Lynn starts for St. Louis, and he has his lowest K-BB% since 2017. His strikeout rate is down to 20.9%, accompanied by an 82 Stuff+ overall rating for his arsenal. Lynn has the fastball, sinker and cutter, but none grade out as close to average pitches anymore. Only his slider has a Stuff+ rating above 100 this year, and it is even more concerning since his walk rates are now in the double digits.
Lynn's xERA is actually more than a half-run lower than it was last year, but given the decline in K-BB%, I don't expect it to last.
Robert Gasser is one of the Brewers' top pitching prospects, but his underlying pitch modeling numbers don't suggest he will be an immediate star in this league. His regressed Stuff+ number is just 94, and he combines it with average command.
Gasser's two best pitches are the slider and the cutter, which provides optimism for navigating both sides of the platoon splits in a lineup. The command comes and goes, as Gasser has walk rates projected as high as 9% in some models and almost four BB/9 in others.
Given my questions about both starting pitchers and the consistent undervaluing of this Milwaukee offense, I'd bet the first five over 4.5 up to -110. Both bullpens project to be well above average, and neither used any key high-leverage arms yesterday in the Milwaukee blowout.
Pick: First Five Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Paul Blackburn vs. Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo returns from injury to make his 2024 debut, and of all the guys making season or career debuts today, he's the one I am most optimistic about immediately.
Woo has the best command of the three compared to Bradley and Gasser. In his 11 1/3 Triple-A innings during rehab, Woo didn't walk a single batter. The Seattle righty projects to have some issues with home runs, but Woo's 25% strikeout rate might even be a touch low based on the quality of the arsenal. He has five pitches that grade out as average or better by Stuff+ and his two best pitches are the sweeper and deceptive four seamer.
With Woo averaging more than one strikeout per inning and maybe showing some potential further upside in that market, I'm looking to target his strikeout prop and the Mariners in his debut.
He threw 67 pitches in the rehab outing and is probably limited to 80-85 for his first outing, but that's enough for me to get over his projected strikeout total of 5.5. He goes over this number about 61% of the time if he throws five innings.
Even though Oakland's bullpen is the most improved unit in all of baseball year over year, Paul Blackburn's declining strikeout rate year over year leaves Woo as the clearly better pitcher and Seattle should be closer to -155 than the current -142 available in the market.
Pick: Mariners ML (-146) | Bryan Woo over 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
