As Opening Day nears, I'll preview and make 2026 MLB predictions for various markets, including team futures (win total over/unders, playoffs, World Series), player awards, and player stat futures.
From a personal perspective, MLB win total over/unders are my favorite preseason markets to try to beat. They also serve as a guide for teams that may help them win their division, make the playoffs, advance to the World Series, or win a championship.
There are four important things you should always keep in mind when surveying MLB futures odds in these markets:
- Books overinflate total win markets, which means that the total number of wins among the 30 teams adds up to more wins than are available during the MLB season (2,430).
- Similarly, books overinflate their divisional odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in a division winning that division will exceed 100%.
- Additionally, books overinflate their playoff odds markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all teams in an given league making the playoffs will exceed 600% (six teams qualify in each league).
- Finally, books also overinflate their pennant and World Series markets, meaning the combined probability — as indicated by the implied odds — of all 30 MLB teams potentially winning the World Series will exceed 100%.
Moreover, tying up your money for several months at a relatively small expected value edge is naturally unappealing to many bettors. By placing these wagers, you're reducing your available bankroll in the short term and giving the house an interest-free loan for at least half a year. Make certain to exercise careful bankroll management when creating season-long futures portfolios.
I will update this post with any additional bets or significant changes to projections before Opening Day. And before I update this article, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Download the app, follow me, and get notifications when I place a bet.
Below are my 2026 MLB win total projections, alongside publicly available projections from FanGraphs (including their Playoff Odds, ATC – provided by Ariel Cohen, The BAT – provided by Derek Carty, and OOPSY – provided by Jordan Rosenblum), Clay Davenport, and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA.
First, I want to define two terms you will see in the tables below:
- "Public" refers to the average of those above publicly available projections.
- In contrast, "Composite" refers to an average (50/50) of the "Public" projection and my projection.
From 2018-2026 (excluding the 2020 pandemic-shortened season), the composite projection has produced a 58.1% win rate (115-83-12) across 210 possible win total bets, compared to 52.2% across individual public systems.
Specific systems may perform significantly better on outlier predictions (i.e., win totals above or below a specified threshold relative to the projection; I use three wins as my threshold), but it is still encouraging to see that their combined predictive power is far greater than the sum of their parts.
AL East Win Total Projections
New York Yankees
- 2025 Wins: 94 | Pythag: 97 (-3) | BaseRuns: 100 (-6)
I typically only consider betting win totals where there's at least a three-win gap (and typically 3.5) between the market odds and my projection. I generally prefer alignment with and confirmation from the composite projection (though not always).
Both my projection (89.1) and the public projection (average 88.4) view the Yankees' win total as slightly overinflated, whether compared with a high projection of 89.9 from OOPSY and a low of 86.2 from FanGraphs.
While it's worth noting that the Yankees slightly underachieved last season, based on both their Pythagorean expectation and BaseRuns calculation, I view the AL East as a treacherous division in 2026 and suspect it will be difficult for any team to surpass 90 wins.
In fact, both my projection and Davenport's call for all five AL East clubs to finish above .500, and PECOTA has the Rays just off the pace (at 81.2 wins). We may not have seen a division this strong top-to-bottom since the 2005 NL East (Braves 90-72, Phillies 88-74, Mets 83-79, Marlins 83-79, Nationals 81-81).
Bet the Yankees Under 92.5 wins down to 91.5, as every projection thinks they fall short of this number.
You can also consider betting the Yankees to miss the playoffs (+325), but that number aligns much more closely with the public projection (projected +339) than my own (projected +227), which isn't even as pessimistic as FanGraphs (projected +222)
Toronto Blue Jays
- 2025 Wins: 94 | Pythag: 89 (+5) | BaseRuns: 87 (+7)
The Blue Jays' win total over was my first bet in 2025, but the public projection is pessimistic for 2026after they overachieved by five to seven wins last season.
In fact, at 89.3 projected wins, I'm more optimistic than every public projection, including PECOTA's 88.3 (average 86, low of 84.2 from OOPSY). If you ignored my projection and focused solely on the public projections, you could justify betting the Blue Jays Under at 89 or higher.
However, Toronto projects as the top defensive team in my model, which raises their floor. Even at a line as high as 89.5 (with no projection higher than that), I still don't see enough value to bet their win total Under.
Still, both my projection and the public projection – each of which falls around +190 – see value in Toronto's odds to miss the playoffs, compared to odds as high as +240 in the betting market. PECOTA (projected -312) is the only projection that views the Blue Jays as a safe playoff team.
However, this is also one of the likeliest rosters to add pieces in season.
Boston Red Sox
- 2025 Wins: 89 | Pythag: 92 (-3) | BaseRuns: 93 (-4)
Win total projections indicate that while their win total is likely too high, it is not high enough to justify betting the Red Sox Under. The public projection would need to see at least an 88 or 88.5 before considering taking a position. Davenport has Boston winning the division, but PECOTA (81.8) and OOPSY (82.9) have the Red Sox finishing closer to .500.
Regarding playoff odds, my projection is right around a coin flip, and both PECOTA and OOPSY have them making the postseason again less than 50% of the time. However, the BAT X has them at closer to 70% to make the playoffs.
Eliminating my projection (+102 to miss) and just averaging the public projections, you would have +129 on Boston to miss the playoffs, compared to listed odds as high as +155.
As a result, while I could justify the wager based on my own projection, the edge relative to the public projection is much smaller.
Ultimately, the lack of consensus leads me to pass.
Baltimore Orioles
- 2025 Wins: 75 | Pythag: 70 (+5) | BaseRuns: 70 (+5)
The Orioles' 2026 public win total projections almost directly align with the betting market – but my own projection is more than a win below ATC (83.3), and I would consider taking their Under beginning at 85.5.
My playoff projection also aligns with their market odds (projected -115 to miss vs. -115 listed), but the public projection is far more optimistic about their playoff chances (54%, -118 implied; high of -161 from OOPSY).
If any team goes from worst to first in 2026, it's probably the Orioles – but I don't see an actionable way to invest in their season this spring.
Tampa Bay Rays
- 2025 Wins: 77 | Pythag: 84 (-7) | BaseRuns: 84 (-7)
The Rays are the one team I am truly higher on than market in the AL East, but Davenport (83) is the lone public projection system that sees them as a winning ballclub.
Still, I would bet the Rays Over to 78.5 wins, especially given their return to Tropicana Field – one of the most profitable home venues in the league.
Additionally, I project the Rays to either win the AL East (listed at +3000) or at least make the playoffs (listed at +300) more often than the betting odds suggest.
AL East Futures Bets
- New York Yankees, Under 92.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 91.5
- Tampa Bay Rays, Over 76.5 Wins (+100, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 78.5
AL Central Win Total Projections
Detroit Tigers
- 2025 Wins: 87 | Pythag: 88 (-1) | BaseRuns: 87 (-)
Detroit's win total climbed from 84.5 to as high as 86.5 after signing Framber Valdez.
While I don't see actionable value in the Over, both my projection and the public projection lean that way.
Rather than betting the win total, I would much prefer to bet the Tigers to win the AL Central down to even money(compared to my projection), or potentially to -115 if you are using the public projection (-131 implied odds). The composite projection is -119, so even money remains a reasonable price target.
The composite projection is also equally optimistic about both their playoff (projected -200, listed -190) and World Series chances (projected +2209, listed +2800), as my own. However, I'm inclined to limit my exposure to the AL Central ticket and hope they don't put us through the same misadventures as the second half of the 2025 season.
Cleveland Guardians
- 2025 Wins: 88 | Pythag: 80 (+8) | BaseRuns: 77 (+11)
The Guardians overachieved as much as any team in 2025, and public projections are extremely pessimistic about their divisional and playoff chances in 2026 — my projection is easily the highest in both markets.
Still, my projected win total, divisional odds (projected +388, listed +350), and playoff odds (projected +183, listed +200) align closely with the betting markets.
Public projections (average 75.1 wins) would bet Under 80.5 wins down to 78.5 and would also hammer Cleveland to miss the playoffs (listed -220; projected -908; low projection of -1787 from the BAT X).
Still, considering my more optimistic forecast, the Guardians are a pass.
Kansas City Royals
- 2025 Wins: 82 | Pythag: 83 (-1) | BaseRuns: 84 (-2)
Both my projection and the public projections lean slightly Under on the Royals' win total, but I would want Under 83.5 or higher to place a wager at an actionable gap compared to my projection – and there's limited availability at that number (BallyBet, BetRivers, SugarHouse, Parx).
My make/miss playoff projection (+231 Yes/-231 No) leans to the Royals missing October (+160 Yes; -210 No). Conversely, ATC (40%, or +150 implied Yes) would recommend Kansas City to make the playoffs, and PECOTA likes them as division favorites.
The issue remains the same as it was last season – high-end talent with a lack of 40-man depth.
Minnesota Twins
- 2025 Wins: 70 | Pythag: 71 (-1) | BaseRuns: 75 (-5)
While public projections (average 79.5) like the Twins Over and suggest they'll be competitive, I don't expect them to be.
Although their ownership group decided not to sell the team and instead welcomed new limited partners, I'm concerned by the abrupt departure of Derek Falvey, the former president of baseball operations.
It has been evident that the Twins have limited resources to invest in their major league roster, and I'd expect names such as Byron Buxton (coming off a career year), Pablo Lopez (injured in spring), and Joe Ryan to be shopped in-season.
As a result, even though every public projection (range of 78.6 to 80.1) likes the Twins to clear their listed win total, I don't expect the current best players on their roster to be there at the end of the season.
Likewise, you can ignore the potential value in their playoff odds (public projection +236; listed +500).
My projection would take the Twins' Under down to 73.5. However, I align with – but don't exceed – their steep odds of missing the postseason (projected -630, listed -650); it's not a parlayable bet.
There's still talent in Minnesota, but don't get fooled by the public projections and bet the Over on an organization that looks dead in the water.
Chicago White Sox
- 2025 Wins: 60 | Pythag: 71 (-11) | BaseRuns: 67 (-7)
Both my projection and the public projection align closely with the mean win total expectation for the White Sox, even with a high of 70.6 from the BAT X, and a low of 63 from Davenport.
While it may feel that their chances to steal a divisional title in a weak AL Central — or the final wild card spot in the AL — could be undervalued after three consecutive 100-loss seasons, I still think they're at least a year away from threatening a .500 record.
My projection makes them an 80-1 shot to make the playoffs, and the most optimistic public projection (BAT X) puts them at +2757, compared to odds as high as +2000.
AL Central Futures Bets
- AL Central Division Winner, Detroit Tigers (+165, 2u), BallyBet, Bet to +100
- Minnesota Twins, Under 74.5 Wins (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to 73.5
AL West Win Total Projections
Seattle Mariners
- 2025 Wins: 90 | Pythag: 88 (+2) | BaseRuns: 90 (-)
My projection is highest for Seattle relative to the market, but PECOTA (93.3) also has the Mariners surpassing their win total and pulling away from their division rivals.
My projection shows actionable value in the Mariners making the playoffs, winning the AL West, and either winning the AL Pennant or the World Series.
However, even if you throw out my projection, every publicly available projection has Seattle winning the West more than 50% of the time. You can bet them to win the division at plus money, representing a substantial edge.
Alternatively, or in addition, play the Mariners Over up to 93, and take their odds to win the AL Pennant (listed +600) down to +400. Both my projection and PECOTA put the Mariners at around 12% to win the World Series, meaning their fair pennant odds should be closer to +300 than +600.
Also, if you're placing a parlay on teams to make the playoffs, Seattle (-275 YES) is one of the largest edges on the board.
Lastly, consider the odds of Seattle clinching a first-round bye or securing the No. 1 seed in the American League.
Texas Rangers
- 2025 Wins: 81 | Pythag: 90 (-9) | BaseRuns: 86 (-5)
Both my projection and the public projections align with the betting market on the Rangers in 2026. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other about this team.
I'm higher on their playoff chances than every projection except for the BAT X (projected -111) and PECOTA (projected +141), but there's not quite enough value for me at +120 to place the wager.
And if you take the average of public projections (+138 to Make), you'd end up leaning closer toward their odds of missing the postseason (-140).
If anything, I would consider betting a Mariners-Rangers divisional exacta (+500).
Houston Astros
- 2025 Wins: 87 | Pythag: 83 (+4) | BaseRuns: 82 (+5)
Both my projection and the public projection indicate that the Astros are a team to fade in 2026. Bet their win total Under at 84.5 or better, roughly a 3.5-win gap compared to the composite projection.
There's also consensus value in their odds of missing the playoffs.
The public playoff projections have the Astros south of 40% to make the postseason, and you can basically find that price point (+155, 39.2% implied) on their odds to miss the playoffs instead, a difference of nealy 20% in implied probability. PECOTA is the only projection that has Houston north of 50% (projected -117), and even that projection would still recommend betting them to miss the postseason.
Athletics
- 2025 Wins: 76 | Pythag: 73 (+3) | BaseRuns: 76 (-)
My projection alone would recommend betting the Under (at 75.5) for the Athletics in 2026. Still, given that the public projections largely align with the betting odds, compositing my projection with them yields minimal actionable value.
The FanGraphs projections suggest there may be value in the Athletics winning the AL West (projected +975, listed +1600) or making the playoffs (projected +298, listed +450). Still, none of the other projections match the level of confidence from that system; ATC is the closest, at projected odds of +1787 and +495, respectively.
While my projection leans toward the Under and the Athletics missing the postseason, I'm going to pass on this team from a preseason perspective. Their unique home environment in Sacramento increases variance and makes handicapping the season-long stats for this club a bit more difficult.
Los Angeles Angels
- 2025 Wins: 72 | Pythag: 64 (+8) | BaseRuns: 66 (+6)
The public projection leans over for the Angels in 2026, thanks to a high forecast of 78.6 wins from OOPSY, which is also the outlier playoff projection (+331 implied) for the Halos.
My projection (+1182) is the second most optimistic for their playoff chances, but I don't project an edge in the make-or-miss playoffs market.
Moreover, PECOTA has this club as low as 66.2 wins, the second-worst team in baseball and worst in the American League. Pass.
The Angels offer a wide range of outcomes, with the largest gap between their high (78.6) and low (66.2) projections; yet I still don't show value in their futures markets. Pass.
AL West Futures Bets
- AL Pennant Winner, Seattle Mariners (+600, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to +400
- AL West Divisional Winner, Seattle Mariners (+130, 1.5u), Caesars, Bet to -125
- Seattle Mariners, Over 89.5 Wins (-120, 1u), DraftKings, Bet to 93
- Houston Astros, Under 85.5 Wins (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, Bet to 84.5
- Houston Astros, Under 86.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, Bet to 84.5
- Miss the Playoffs, Houston Astros (+155, 1u), Caesars, Bet to -150
NL East Win Total Projections
New York Mets
- 2025 Wins: 83 | Pythag: 86 (-3) | BaseRuns: 92 (-9)
I have provided preseason win total projections since 2018, and I believe this will be the first time I have picked my Mets to finish atop the NL East. Both ATC and Davenport agree they are slightly ahead of the Braves and Phillies heading into spring training.
I don't project value on the Mets' win total, as my projection and the public projections essentially align with their listed total.
However, since I am slightly lower on both of their main divisional rivals than the rest of the market, I see value in the Mets winning the NL East. My projection (+125) compares favorably with the ATC projection (+140 implied), which has a smaller win-total gap among the three teams than mine.
Take the Mets down to +150 to win the division, and/or consider betting their odds to make the playoffs (low of -305 from The BAT X, composite of -529, listed -240).
ATC also sees World Series value in the Mets (projected +1135, listed +1500), but I have them closer to +1750. Publicly available season-long projections often overvalue roster depth and undervalue roster consolidation and star power in the postseason.
Philadelphia Phillies
- 2025 Wins: 96| Pythag: 95 (+1) | BaseRuns: 94 (+2)
I have bet on the Phillies under each of the past three seasons, and the projections recommend trying again in 2026.
While I have the lowest win projection in the market for their team, none of the projections have the Phillies surpassing their win total this season (the high is 90 from Davenport; the low is 85.1 from PECOTA).
I'd bet the Phillies' win total Under 90 or better and consider their odds of missing the playoffs.
I'm unsure whether I can envision the full downside scenario of the Phillies missing the postseason, although FanGraphs (+215 implied) and PECOTA (+170 implied) suggest there may be value in their odds to miss (listed at +300).
The majority of the key contributors on this club are on the wrong side of 30 — the window is closing.
Atlanta Braves
- 2025 Wins: 76 | Pythag: 80 (-4) | BaseRuns: 79 (-3)
As per usual, the Braves are the public projection darlings in the division, but I am lower on their roster this season than I have been over the past couple of years.
My projection recommends betting the win total Under at 90 or higher, but the public projections show a much wider range, with three forecasts near 91.5 and two others around 85 and 87, for an average of 88.9. This team offers a wide range of outcomes, depending upon health, and they are already dealing with injury concerns this spring.
I recognize that my mean playoff projection for them is likely low. The BAT X is the lowest otherwise, but they still price Atlanta at -216 to make the playoffs. I'm closer to 50/50, and you can get as high as +195 for the Braves to miss the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Take
Both the average projection (closer to -300) and the consensus projection (-188) would recommend passing, but I'll place a small wager after some key spring pitching injuries (to Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep), which puts additional pressure on an already fragile rotation.
Miami Marlins
- 2025 Wins: 79 | Pythag: 72 (+7) | BaseRuns: 74 (+5)
Although they overachieved in 2025, I like the makeup and direction of the Marlins roster this season. I would bet their win total Over at 73.5 or better.
The composite projection likely would not go past 72.5, and the public projection would require something closer to 71.5 or 72 for a bet. Still, every projection exception for Davenport (71) expects the Marlins to surpass their win total this season.
That said, I have their most optimistic playoff projection at 14.4% (+609 implied), which is still not good enough to recommend betting them to make the playoffs (+600).
Washington Nationals
- 2025 Wins: 66 | Pythag: 60 (+6) | BaseRuns: 61 (+5)
The Nationals overhauled their front office and coaching staff this offseason, and I expect improvements to eventually follow organization-wide.
Still, both my projection (67.2) and the public projection (67) essentially align with their 2026 win total, and it's difficult to find a single projection to justify any wager in either direction (projected range of 66.3 to 68.3); pass.
NL East Futures Bets
- NL East Divisional Winner, New York Mets (+185, 1u), BallyBet, Bet to +135
- Miami Marlins, Over 72.5 Wins (-108, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 73.5
- Miss the Playoffs, Atlanta Braves (+195, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to +150
- Philadelphia Phillies, Under 90.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 90
NL Central Win Total Projections
Milwaukee Brewers
- 2025 Wins: 97 | Pythag: 99 (-2) | BaseRuns: 95 (+2)
Both my projection and OOPSY agree that the Brewers should be closer to 40% and +150 implied to repeat as NL Central champions for the fourth consecutive year and fifth time in six years.
As a result, I show value in their win total Over (at 85.5 or better), odds to win the NL Central (at +165 or better), and odds to make the postseason (at -185 or better).
Even with the slightly more conservative OOPSY projection, price targets of +175 and -145 are perfectly reasonable.
Chicago Cubs
- 2025 Wins: 92 | Pythag: 96 (-4) | BaseRuns: 95 (-3)
I align with market expectations for the Cubs this year, but most public projections are low on the Northsiders — only PECOTA (90) has the Cubs surpassing their projected win total.
Public projections (including a low of 83 from Davenport) suggest their win total Under at 89.5 or higher. Still, my projection — and the resultant composite projection — would push this team into pass territory.
OOPSY really likes the Cubs to miss the playoffs (projected -113, listed +215). My projection aligns with the betting market (+226). If you remove OOPSY from the public sample, the average projection rises to +245; pass.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 2025 Wins: 71 | Pythag: 74 (-3) | BaseRuns: 75 (-4)
The Pirates are a consensus win total Over selection for 2026. Every public projection except PECOTA (80 wins) has them as a .500 team or better.
Both my projection (81.6) and the public projection (82) would take the Over to 78.5.
Still, I'm lower on their divisional and playoff chances than the rest of the projection market. If you trust the public projections, there is substantial divisional value in Pittsburgh (low of +942 from PECOTA; high of +315 from ATC; listed +800), and value in their postseason odds as well (projected range +117 to +250; listed +425).
I'd buy the Over and may consider a small bet on their making the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Cincinnati Reds
- 2025 Wins: 83 | Pythag: 85 (-2) | BaseRuns: 81 (+2)
The Reds are a consensus win total Under selection for 2026. Every public projection has them finishing below .500, and I'm the lowest among them by two wins.Bear in mind, I bet the Reds' win total Over last season.
The public projection recommends 82.5 as the Under cutoff, but my projection would recommend going as low as 80 making 81.5 an appropriate cutoff, per the composite projection.
Moreover, there is substantial value in the Reds missing the postseason, with odds as low as -160, compared to projections ranging from -295 to -421, with a composite near -420.
Take their odds to miss the playoffs at -250 or better.
St. Louis Cardinals
- 2025 Wins: 78 | Pythag: 74 (+4) | BaseRuns: 73 (+5)
The Cardinals are already in selling mode before the season has started. Their win total dropped from 71.5 to 69.5 after the Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan trades – but they don't necessarily have many more pieces to trade away.
PECOTA views this team as a certified under selection (projected 65.8), but the remainder of the public projections (average 73 without PECOTA) agree that it's Over (up to 70.5) or pass on the rebuilding Cardinals.
NL Central Futures Bets
- NL Central Divisional Winner, Milwaukee Brewers (+335, 1u), BetRivers, Bet to +125
- Cincinnati Reds, Under 83.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 81.5
- Milwaukee Brewers, Over 84.5 Wins (-106, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 86
- Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 76.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, Bet to 78.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 77.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), Fanatics, Bet to 78.5
- Miss the Playoffs, Cincinnati Reds (-160, 1u), Caesars, Bet to -250
- St. Louis Cardinals, Over 69.5 Wins (+100, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to 70.5
NL West Win Total Projections
Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2025 Wins: 93 | Pythag: 95 (-2) | BaseRuns: 94 (-1)
If you grabbed an early Under 104, or 103.5 on the Dodgers, you got a good number.
However, while I would still lean Under at 102.5, there's no reason to force a play against the best team in baseball with such a narrow gap (1.3 wins) between my projection, the public projection, and the listed total.
Projections universally agree that the Dodgers are a value bet at -600 to win the NL West. I have the lowest projection at -675 (87.1% implied). You can consider it a parlay piece where applicable.
However, even the most optimistic World Series projection (31.3%, +219 implied from ATC), and my own slightly more pessimistic measurement (30.1%, +232 implied) essentially only aligns with their odds to win the World Series (+230 implied). At this stage of the season, it's difficult to find value on a Dodgers bet with a plus sign in front of it.
San Francisco Giants
- 2025 Wins: 81 | Pythag: 83 (-2) | BaseRuns: 81 (-)
Around the projection market, the Giants, Padres, and Diamondbacks are all jumbled in second, third, and fourth in the division.
I prefer the Giants ever so slightly, but I don't necessarily see value in their win total. I would have considered betting their win total Over 80.5, but the lowest available is 81.5.
However, I project an edge in their postseason odds, setting the line at +136 compared to listed odds as high as +215.
Public projections place their playoff odds between +313 and +157. You can either bet the Giants to make the playoffs, or bet them to finish in second-place in the NL West (+290) at a similar price point and cash even if they fail to make the postseason, as I struggle to envision two wild card teams coming from the West.
San Diego Padres
- 2025 Wins: 90 | Pythag: 90 (-) | BaseRuns: 88 (+2)
While the Padres' ownership battle may be nearing its end, AJ Preller still seems financially handcuffed. The Padres saw Dylan Cease, Ryan O'Hearn, Robert Suarez, and Luis Arraez depart this winter, with minimal supplemental talent brought in to replace the losses.
Moreover, Preller's constant prospect shuffling may have caught up with him — the prospect pipeline is relatively devoid of pieces that can be flipped to acquire immediately impactful major league talent.
I like the Padres' win total Under (to 83.5), but not as much as the public projection, which would take the number down to 82.5. (projected 79.7). The composite projection recommends a more reasonable cutoff of 83.
There is even greater public value in their chances of missing the playoffs. I actually have the Padres at a high projection of nearly 43% (+135 implied) to make the playoffs, yet you can bet them at around the same number (+135) to miss the postseason. On average, the public projections have the Padres missing the playoffs at a near 75% clip (-305 implied to miss), while PECOTA (-202 to miss) has the most optimistic forecast aside from my own
Arizona Diamondbacks
- 2025 Wins: 80 | Pythag: 82 (-2) | BaseRuns: 83 (-3)
The Diamondbacks seem a likely pass from a preseason perspective, even though I lean Under at 79.5 wins.
Their listed total is spot on with public projections, which also expect the Diamondbacks to miss the postseason at a high clip (86% from OOPSY, 80% from PECOTA). My projection (-377) aligns with that assessment, but the market odds (-310 best) are closer to the public consensus; pass.
Colorado Rockies
- 2025 Wins: 43 | Pythag: 42 (+1) | BaseRuns: 45 (-2)
Colorado was historically awful last season, and I don't see a 71-win projection from Davenport — a 38-win improvement from last season — as a realistic outcome.
Even if you exclude Davenport from the sample, public projections favor Colorado to go Over 51.5 by nearly 12 wins on average (public projections: 63.2), by a margin of nine victories on the low end (61.2 from PECOTA).
If you're using the composite line value as a guide, the cutoff for a wager is Over 56, but my projection aligns much more closely with the listed total. As a result, I would only entertain a small Over wager here, up to 52.
NL West Futures Bets
- Colorado Rockies, Over 51.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, Bet to 52
- NL West Finishing Position, San Francisco Giants 2nd (+290, 0.25u), DraftKings, Bet to +250
- Miss the Playoffs, San Diego Padres (+135, 0.75u), Caesars, Bet to -110
- San Diego Padres, Under 85.5 Wins (-114, 1u), BallyBet, Bet to 83
Zerillo's MLB Futures Card
MLB Win Totals
- Cincinnati Reds, Under 83.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 81.5
- Colorado Rockies, Over 51.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, Bet to 52
- Houston Astros, Under 85.5 Wins (-106, 0.5u), FanDuel, Bet to 84.5
- Houston Astros, Under 86.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, Bet to 84.5
- Miami Marlins, Over 72.5 Wins (-108, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 73.5
- Milwaukee Brewers, Over 84.5 Wins (-106, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 86
- Minnesota Twins, Under 74.5 Wins (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to 73.5
- New York Yankees, Under 92.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 91.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 76.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings, Bet to 78.5
- Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 77.5 Wins (-110, 0.5u), Fanatics, Bet to 78.5
- Philadelphia Phillies, Under 90.5 Wins (-110, 1u), Caesars, Bet to 90
- San Diego Padres, Under 85.5 Wins (-114, 1u), BallyBet, Bet to 83
- St. Louis Cardinals, Over 69.5 Wins (+100, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to 70.5
- Seattle Mariners, Over 89.5 Wins (-120, 1u), DraftKings, Bet to 93
- Tampa Bay Rays, Over 76.5 Wins (+100, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to 78.5
Divisional Futures
- AL Central Winner, Detroit Tigers (+165, 2u), BallyBet, Bet to +100
- AL West Winner, Seattle Mariners (+130, 1.5u), Caesars, Bet to -125
- NL East Winner, New York Mets (+185, 1u), BallyBet, Bet to +135
- NL Central Winner, Milwaukee Brewers (+335, 1u), BetRivers, Bet to +165
- NL West Finishing Position, San Francisco Giants 2nd (+290, 0.25u), DraftKings, Bet to +250
Playoff Futures
- Make the Playoffs, Pittsburgh Pirates (+425, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +350
- Miss the Playoffs, Atlanta Braves (+195, 0.5u), Caesars; bet to +150
- Miss the Playoffs, Cincinnati Reds (-160, 1u), Caesars, Bet to -250
- Miss the Playoffs, Houston Astros (+155, 1u), Caesars, Bet to -150
- Miss the Playoffs, San Diego Padres (+135, 0.75u), Caesars, Bet to -110
World Series and Pennant Futures
- AL Pennant Winner, Seattle Mariners (+600, 1u), FanDuel, Bet to +400
