There are just two games on the MLB slate today. Sadly, the days of eight-game player prop slates are over.
That means we have to be more diligent in our process moving forward, and that's why I responsibly found two plus-money MLB props to bet today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+123)
| Phillies vs. Braves | Braves -140 |
| First Pitch | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Zack Wheeler was not as dominant this season as he was last year. He missed some time due to injury, his Strikeout Rate fell about 3%, and his Ground Ball Rate fell about 4%.
But Wheeler essentially put up the same numbers he did a year ago, just with less volume. His ERA jumped slightly from 2.78 to 2.82, while his xERA and xFIP both jumped about 30 points.
However, Wheeler rolled through the NL East. He was especially cruel to Atlanta, as he has been over the years.
Zack Wheeler, who's on the bump tomorrow, has faced the Braves 10 times as a member of the Phillies:
2.04 ERA
0.93 WHIP
66⅓ innings
77 strikeouts
9 walks
5 HR allowed— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) October 11, 2022
Wheeler has struck out five current Braves at least five times, including Dansby Swanson and Marcell Ozuna a combined 27 times. He has a 27.4% Whiff Rate against the team as a whole.
He has struck out at least seven Braves in seven of his last eight starts against them. Wheeler also picked up 25 strikeouts in just 20 innings against them in 2022.
He only struck out four Cardinals in his Wild Card appearance, but he's fully rested and should have a longer leash as the Phillies attempt to go up 2-0 in the Divisional Series.
If Wheeler has the leash, he'll hit this number. He's struck out six or more in 11 of 15 starts when the dugout gives him 95 or more pitches.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wheeler for 6.7 strikeouts today, giving us a 21.6% edge over the line posted at BetRivers.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+123)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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Juan Soto Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
| Padres vs. Dodgers | Dodgers -190 |
| First Pitch | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Alright, hear me out.
With Juan Soto going 0-for-3 last night, he has now recorded a hit in just eight of his 20 games against the Dodgers this season. That's only 42% and would imply -138 odds to the under.
Soto's been somewhat underwhelming since joining the Padres and hasn't been a world-beater in the postseason. Soto has yet to record a single barrel in his 15 postseason ABs, has a -7 degree Avg. Launch Angle and has recorded an 87.4 mph Avg. Exit Velocity.
I can't stress enough how badly the Padres need Juan Soto and Manny Machado to do something.
— John Gennaro (@johnmgennaro) October 12, 2022
Soto isn't on the ball right now. I'm willing to fade him at plus money for this prop, especially when you notice his matchup today.
Soto is 1-for-8 lifetime against Clayton Kershaw with a 40% Whiff Rate. That one hit was a home run, which only irresponsibly boosts his numbers against him. Take the homer away and Soto's Avg. Exit Velocity against Kershaw dips into the low-80s.
Soto has some surprising platoon splits this season. He has a 166 wRC+ against RHPs but just a 106 wRC+ against southpaws. His batting average against the left side has dipped all the way to .210, with his Hit Rate dipping below 18%.
I think Soto struggles tonight. If he feels reinvigorated and sees the ball better, let's just hope he goes 0-for-1 with three walks.
Pick: Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
Also Under Consideration:
- Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 at BetRivers)
- Max Muncy Under 0.5 Hits (-110 at DraftKings)
