The League Division Series begins on Tuesday with a quadruple-header of games beginning with the Phillies vs. Braves at 1:07 p.m. ET and concluding with the Padres vs. Dodgers at 9:37 p.m. ET.
If you've followed along during the regular season, then you know my process for finding optimal home run selections for the popular "Dinger Tuesday" promotion at FanDuel. I use barrel rates, max exit velocities, price comparisons and pitcher matchups to find the optimal home run picks.
Looking to bet HR props this week?
Top 10 barrel rates since Aug. 1 (min 50 batted balls) amongst players hitting this weekend:
1. A Judge (26.2% lol)
2. Y Alvarez
3. J Gallo
4. J Kelenic
5. K Schwarber
6. T Thompson
7. C Raleigh
8 E Suarez
9 J.T. Realmuto
10. M. Olson— Anthony Dabbundo, Aaron Nola enjoyer (@AnthonyDabbundo) October 11, 2022
Pitching is superior in the playoffs and we're likely to see some of the best pitchers for every team in Game 1 of the League Divisional Series. With that being said, some players remain undervalued to homer across Friday's slate.
Here's a look at my favorite home run prop selection for each of the four games.
Note: All of these are +475 or longer and thus have an implied probability of less than 17.4%.
MLB Home Run Props For Friday
Phillies at Braves, 1:07 p.m. ET
Ranger Suarez vs. Max Fried
Pick: J.T. Realmuto +650 at PointsBet
Realmuto gets a favorable matchup with the lefty Fried in this game and because of his likely batting order position between Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, he could potentially face a lefty in the later innings, too.
Realmuto has been the Phillies' best hitter in the second half of the season. His slash line is .307/.367/.583 in the second half with a 166 OPS+. He's also in the top 10 for the listed barrel rates above since Aug. 1 among players hitting this weekend.
He's pulled the ball more in the second half and focused less on using all fields, which is a major reason why his power declined. That, plus he's been hitting the ball in the air more and the result is 14 second-half homers after just eight in the first half.
Mariners at Astros, 3:37 p.m. ET
Logan Gilbert vs. Justin Verlander
Pick: Carlos Santana +830 at FanDuel
Santana had a double off the top of the wall and a home run against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round and now gets a matchup with Justin Verlander on Tuesday.
Santana only has a .226 average against Verlander in 85 career at-bats but his power numbers are tremendous. The veteran switch-hitter has a .607 SLG and nine home runs along with five doubles against Verlander. I don't typically read into hitter vs. pitcher matchups because the sample is often way too small, but in this case, 85 at-bats is somewhat meaningful.
Santana has also posted an 11.2% barrel rate since Aug. 1, and anything over 10% is considered plus home run power levels. He has 14 barrels in 125 batted balls.
Guardians at Yankees, 7:47 p.m. ET
Cal Quantrill vs. Gerrit Cole
Pick: Anthony Rizzo +475
Even though Gerrit Cole has given up two homers per nine innings in the last month, there's not enough value on the board to fade him with a Guardians lineup that is dead last in the league in barrel rate. Cal Quantrill is a fly ball pitcher and that is dangerous at Yankee Stadium, though, and Rizzo should have a favorable matchup here against him.
I'm sure that Aaron Judge will be a popular pick but his line is inflated given that Cleveland has major incentive to pitch around him like teams did down the stretch this year. The Guardians right-hander has a 37% fly ball rate, above league average.
The Guardians only have one left-hander in the bullpen and they are unlikely to use him against Rizzo because of the big right-handed bats around him. Hopefully Rizzo can use the short porch in right field.
Padres at Dodgers, 9:37 p.m. ET
Mike Clevinger vs. Julio Urias
Pick: Manny Machado +475
Machado actually has better numbers against right-handed pitchers than he does right-handers, but in this case it's a bit of an exceptional case because Urias is traditionally a reverse splits pitcher anyway and is more like a right-hander.
Machado's barrel rate is actually down in 2022 relative to past seasons, but it's risen in the last two months back toward levels of previous years.
Machado has had an 11% barrel rate in the last two months and is fresh off a stellar three-game series that included a homer against the Mets last weekend. The sample is small on him, too, but Machado does have four homers against Urias in the last two seasons.
