Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 2 Odds
| Phillies Odds | -122 |
| Cardinals Odds | +104 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-114/-106) |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
When building a same-game parlay, I'm looking to create a probable game script in my head and bet the appropriate legs to make it happen.
I see a dominant Aaron Nola performance while the offense does just enough to get the Phillies a win.
Let's break down exactly how that happens.
The Parlay (+312):
- Philadelphia Phillies ML (-122)
- Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
- Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits (-195)
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-122)
Nola is a significantly better pitcher than Miles Mikolas. Only Carlos Rodon finished the season with a higher fWAR than Nola this year. He's been unstoppable and put together his best start of the season for the Phillies to clinch a postseason berth.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have put up a .393 xwOBA and five runs in 12 innings against Mikolas over the past two seasons.
The injury to Ryan Helsley also significantly hurts the Cardinals' chances today. The Cards had a major bullpen advantage with him in the fold but that is no longer the case.
The Cardinals are the best offense in baseball against southpaws, but their offensive advantage is less when the pitching matchup is righty vs. righty.
The Phillies win and clinch a matchup with the Braves today.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Nola had a historic season. He spat in the face of the worst defense in MLB behind him by putting up some of the best FIP numbers in baseball.
Aaron Nola is the first pitcher since 1884 to have 220+ strikeouts and fewer than 30 walks in a season.@Phillies | #RingTheBellpic.twitter.com/HtVGkde8C0
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) October 4, 2022
Nola cashed this number in 24 of his 31 starts this season. He's struck out at least eight in four of his last five starts, compiling 11.8 K/9 through the month of September.
Nola has also struck out at least seven Cardinals in three straight starts. That includes a 10-strikeout performance last season in a complete-game shutout.
Our Action Labs projections mark Nola for 5.8 strikeouts today. I'll throw this line in my SGP.
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Hits (-195)
Someone has to hit if the Phillies are going to win.
The best guy to do that is defending NL MVP Bryce Harper. In 10 lifetime PAs against Mikolas, Harper is 4-for-10 with two extra-base hits and a 97.3mph avg. exit velocity. His xSLG is close to .800 and his xwOBA is over .500.
Harper slumped down the stretch but he still recorded a hit in 16 of his final 30 games. He also hit .296 off righties this year while Mikolas allowed a higher average to RHHs than LHHs.
I'll take Harper to smack at least one hit after going 0-for-3 Friday night.
