Phillies vs. Padres Game 2 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +105 |
| Padres Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Philadelphia Phillies stole home-field advantage and grabbed a 1-0 series lead over the San Diego Padres with a 2-0 win in Game 1 on Tuesday night.
After Zack Wheeler dominated, Philly now turns to its co-ace in Aaron Nola to potentially build up a dominant, 2-0 series lead before things shift back to Philadelphia. Playing the role of stopper for San Diego will be Blake Snell, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half.
Our analysts are all-aboard the Phillies bandwagon, with two picks on the road side to secure the victory. Here are our best bets for NLCS Game 2 between the Phillies and Padres.
MLB Odds & Picks
Phillies First Five Innings +105
Odds via BetMGM
Anthony Dabbundo: Aaron Nola had a 3.25 ERA in the regular season, but a career-low 2.74 xERA, 2.58 FIP and 2.78 xFIP. Among MLB starters, only Jacob deGrom had a better Location+ number for command, per Eno Sarris' model from The Athletic.
Nola doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but Nola has an elite curveball and gets a ton of arm-side run on his fastball to keep hitters off balanced. He's finally gotten some good breaks and luck with runners in scoring position in the last three starts and the results have shown to the tune of 19 1/3 innings and zero earned runs allowed.
The Padres are also an excellent matchup for Nola. San Diego is one of the most patient lineups in the entire league. The Padres have the fifth-lowest swing rate overall and the sixth-lowest chase rate. Nola is a command-first pitcher who doesn't miss the zone, and he can find a ton of success by going right at the Padres' hitters. San Diego finished the season outside the top 20 in barrels and homers.
Meanwhile, the Phillies had the third-best offense in baseball after the trade deadline against left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 123. That's considerably better than the Padres were against righties, even after acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell.
As dominant as Blake Snell has been in the second half, the Phillies have more power in the lineup and that's what plays in the playoffs in a matchup of two elite starting pitchers.
I'd play the Phillies in the first five at anything plus-money.
Phillies Moneyline +102
Odds via FanDuel
Kenny Ducey: Sure, it may feel like the Padres should avoid falling into a 2-0 hole against the Phillies with their best pitcher on the hill, but that’s certainly no guarantee given the spot here. In a vacuum, I’d actually make Philadelphia the favorite.
The Phillies have a .679 OPS in the postseason, which is the highest of any team remaining, and they’ve managed to keep strikeouts to a relative minimum by hovering around a 24% punchout rate. They now draw Blake Snell, who has allowed seven earned runs on nine hits and five walks over 9 ⅓ innings against Philly this season. The road side is also sixth in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
Aaron Nola, on the other hand, has been untouchable in the postseason. He’s spun 12 ⅔ scoreless, yielding just nine hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts. This comes on the heels of a season where he registered a 2.74 xERA, which was among the top 10% of all pitchers. There’s that, and then his 10-strikeout performance against the Padres when he met them in the regular season, which saw him complete seven innings of one-run ball.
The only thing San Diego has working in its favor would be playing at home. It is a clear notch below Philadelphia offensively right now and would seem to have the upper hand in the pitching department as well. I’ll be grabbing the Phillies as underdogs yet again.
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