MLB Playoff Odds, Picks 10/8/22 for Phillies vs Cardinals Game 2

Phillies vs. Cardinals Game 2 Odds

The Phillies pulled off a remarkable, ninth-inning comeback in Friday afternoon's Game 1, putting them one win away from the NLDS and a meeting with the Atlanta Braves.

The Cardinals are reeling and facing a stern test on Saturday night in the form of Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola. They'll send Miles Mikolas to the mound in hopes of extending their season to Sunday.

Our analysts have a pair of picks on tonight's game, including a first five moneyline and a player prop.

Here are our best bets from Game 2 of the Wild Card Round between the Phillies and Cardinals.

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Phillies First Five Innings Moneyline (-120)

Odds via BetMGM

Sean Zerillo: After stealing Game 1 at the death, the Phillies are in a significantly better position to win Game 2 and lock up this series, with Aaron Nola (2.74 xERA, 2.77 xFIP, 2.80 SIERA) facing Miles Mikolas (3.89 xERA, 3.80 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA).

Although we’re already riding the Phillies series price and sweep tickets, I see an edge on the Phillies F5 moneyline, as I did on Thursday.

I view Nola as a superior pitcher to Friday’s starter, Zack Wheeler. And Nola is coming off the best outing of his career after tossing six perfect innings against the Houston Astros‘ primary lineup in a playoff-spot-clinching performance.

Nola was amped up for that start — posting a season-high 94.1 mph average on his fastball — just the seventh time he’s crossed that threshold in his career. He continually got ahead in the count against a great lineup and rarely got to two balls against any hitter.

Nola posted a 3.6% walk rate this season, second behind Corey Kluber (3%) among qualified pitchers.

And as I have continually mentioned, this Cardinals’ offense is far better against left-handed pitching than they are against righties.

Moreover, the Cardinals’ best pitcher — All-Star closer Ryan Helsley (2.04 xERA) — appeared to re-aggravate his jammed middle finger during his ninth-inning meltdown. And even if he avoids the playoff IL, he won’t be available on Saturday after tossing 33 stressful pitches on Friday.

Despite forcing the Phillies into their lesser split by deploying a right-handed starter, I still see a significant edge on the Phillies’ F5 moneyline for Saturday. I projected Nola’s F5 moneyline at -142 (58.7% implied) and would bet it up to -131 (56.7% implied) at a two percent edge.

While I would consider betting the Phillies’ full-game moneyline at around -115 (53.5% implied), compared to my projection at -124 (54.4%) implied, I already have money tied to their series price and sweep prop; so I don’t see an additional reason to double down.

If you didn’t ride the series moneyline or prop tickets, I would allocate one unit to their F5 Moneyline (to -131) and a half-unit to the full-game moneyline (to -115). Otherwise, you can just bet the F5 line.

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Odds via BetRivers

Doug Ziefel: I know the Cardinals are not a team to target for strikeouts, as they finished the regular season with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, but this total is far too low for Aaron Nola.

First, Nola has gone over this total in 78.1 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -357 that he will go over again tonight. Off the bat, that is significant line value that we cannot pass up.

Then let’s factor in Nola’s excellent career numbers against this Cardinals lineup. He has compiled 119 at-bats against the St. Louis order and has held them to a combined .227 average with a 19.7 strikeout rate. Mixed into those numbers is a clunker outing against them where he allowed five earned runs over seven innings pitched, but he struck out seven batters.

Nola has been a workhorse this season as he went at least six innings in 25 of his 32 starts this season, and he averaged 1.14 strikeouts per inning. So with him fully expected to go deep in this game, we need one strikeout per inning, and we’ll be golden.