Today is the Fourth of July, and there is no better way to celebrate it than with baseball all day.
While you enjoy your barbecues, three players will help us make some money with today's MLB player proppicks and predictions for Thursday, July 4, including Yordan Alvarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Christian Yelich.
MLB Player Props: Thursday, July 4
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
- Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-135, DraftKings)
- Christian Yelich To Record 2+ Total Bases (-145, FanDuel)
The Astros ruined Canada Day for the Blue Jays with a 3-1 victory on Monday and will look to take the series with a Fourth of July victory today. However, the Blue Jays may be celebrating that Yordan Alvarez is leaving town.
Alvarez began Monday's game 0-for-2 before a two-run home run in the ninth inning. Since that at-bat, he has a hit in six of his last eight at-bats, three home runs and eight runs batted in.
With a home run in each of his last three games, Alvarez has recorded 17 total bases. Going back further, he has a hit in eight of his last 10 games, recording two total bases in seven of them. He is averaging 3.1 total bases per game in that span. However, just two will clear this line.
Alvarez will face Chris Bassitt today, whom he is 8-for-18 with a double, five home runs and 11 runs batted in against lifetime. Bassitt comes into this start with a 1.37 WHIP and 4.12 xERA. While he has dominated right-handed bats, left-handers are hitting .282 with seven doubles, seven (of eight) home runs and a .798 OPS.
Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 home runs Alvarez has hit this season has been against right-handed pitchers. He is +285 to hit another on FanDuel today.
Cristopher Sanchez enters this start with a 16 2/3 scoreless inning streak. I was initially interested in his outs recorded line (17.5) as he has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and seven of his last 10 starts overall.
However, he has gone six innings in one of his seven road starts this season, which is not something that I am willing to back at -160 odds. Still, I expect Sanchez to pitch well today, so I am pivoting to his earned runs line instead.
After tossing seven scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks and a rare complete game shutout against the Marlins, Sanchez has lowered his ERA to 2.41 on the season, and his ERA is 1.87 over his last 10 starts. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts, averaging 1.3 total. He also has gone under this line in two of his last three road starts, including a trip to Coors Field in that span.
Sanchez has primarily relied on his sinker and changeup this season, throwing the two pitches 81% of the time. He ranks in the 94th percentile in Chase Rate, and his sinker has helped him rank in the 98th percentile in Ground-ball Rate. That should help navigate a hot summer day at Wrigley Field.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are averaging just 3.5 runs per game since May 1st. This season, they are hitting just .232 with a .665 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Both rookie Michael Mercado and Zack Wheeler have held the Cubs under three earned runs (three combined in 11 innings) through the first two games of this season. While Wheeler is the Phillies' ace, Sanchez has been pitching like an ace lately. He will have the opportunity to turn in another quality start today.
Christian Yelich is another hitter who is enjoying his trip to Coors Field this week. Through the first three games of this series, Yelich is 7-for-13 (.538) including a solo home run last night. Including Sunday's game against the Cubs, Yelich has recorded two hits in each of his last four and five of his seven games.
As of this writing, FanDuel is the only book offering props for Brewers hitters. I would be interested in Yelich's hits + runs + runs batted in line at 2.5, though it may be 3.5 tonight. He is +130 for two hits on FanDuel. Two hits would Yelich two total bases, which he could also achieve with a double. Yelich has faced tonight's starter, Cal Quantrill, just once and singled off him.
Yelich currently does not have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but his .333 average would rank second in the MLB behind Steven Kwan. That average improves slightly against right-handed pitching, up to .344 with a ,960 OPS. Of his 54 hits against right-handers, 17 have gone for extra bases with nine doubles, two triples and six home runs. Quantrill has allowed 13 extra-base hits to left-handed batters.
Yelich is hot while hitting .448 over his past seven games. If he keeps swinging a hot bat in the series finale, he will exceed this total bases line and his HRR combo as well.
