We began the weekend with a bang, as yesterday's props went 3-1, and just one strikeout away from a sweep. The momentum is building, and I've found three guys who are going to help us keep it rolling this Saturday.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Saturday, May 18 — featuring bets for Bailey Falter, Bryce Harper, and Justin Verlander.
MLB Player Props Saturday (May 18)
- Bailey Falter Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125; bet365)
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120; DraftKings)
- Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-125; DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bailey Falter has done a nice job of not faltering as much as we've seen from him in the past. However, a closer look reveals that he is in for sizable regression this afternoon.
Falter's xERA is 5.41, which is substantially higher than his actual ERA of 4.15. It should be concluded by now that Falter does not have the stuff to be an average big-league pitcher.
His command is great, but his stuff is not, and it has led to a ton of hard contact and barely any whiffs this season. Falter's strikeout rate ranks in the 12th percentile, and his history shows why there is value in fading him.
Falter has gone under this total in 57% of his 47 starts, which includes five of his eight starts this year. His overall hit rate equates to implied odds of -133 that he will stay under this total.
So, at the current plus-money price, this is one of the better values on the board.
Next, we head to Philly, where Bryce Harper is begging to heat up. Over his last 15 games, Harper is hitting .309 with four homers, 14 RBI and 13 runs scored. He has been right in the middle of all the Phillies run production, and we should expect that to continue today.
Harper will get the majority of his at-bats against lefty MacKenzie Gore. The left-on-left matchup has been no issue for Harper this season, as he's hitting .279 off lefties with seven extra-base hits.
It's clear he's seeing the ball well lately, and he has seen it well from Gore in their brief meetings. Lifetime, Harper is hitting .286 off Gore in 14 plate appearances.
Back the Phillies red-hot start tonight.
Lastly, we head to Houston, where the Astros will give the ball to future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. Verlander made me eat my words when I faded him last week as he turned back the clock against the Detroit Tigers.
However, there was one area where Verlander still needed to tighten up, and we can capitalize on it tonight. His command was far better against Detroit than in any of his previous outings, but he still managed to walk two batters.
Walks have become more prominent late in his career as he's been above his career walk rate of 6% each of the last two years. Tonight, he faces a Milwaukee lineup that is fifth in team walk rate.
So, the Brewers are going to make him work tonight. This means Verlander is going to have to prove to me again that his command is back where it should be.
