It's the last week of the MLB season. The season will officially come to a close this Wednesday, meaning our MLB player props days are coming to a close.
However, there are still three days left. That means there are still three days to find value in the regular season player props market using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Hunter Greene Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Cubs @ Reds | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This one is going to hurt.
Hunter Greene is that guy. He's turning into one of the better starting pitchers in baseball, especially with his triple-digit fastball and disgusting slider.
Hunter Greene, Wicked 87mph Slider…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/7HDjMelKeo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2022
Greene is coming off a great stretch, too. He's gotten control of his fastball and the pitch has improved month over month this year.
The trouble with his fastball is why Greene often got pulled early and allowed a ton of runs. But this version of the pitch has allowed him to pitch longer into games and record more strikeouts.
As such, Greene has hit this line in two of his last three starts, putting up double-digit strikeout performances against Pittsburgh and St. Louis.
But we're getting to the point where we have to sell Greene this late in the season with plus-money to the under. This line is too high.
Greene has only struck out nine or more in four of 23 starts this season. He's faced the Cubs twice and only managed 11 combined strikeouts in the two starts with a CSW rate below 30%.
Projections are low on him, too, with three different projection systems having him stay well under nine strikeouts:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 6.1 Ks
- Stokastic's Player Props Tool:7.2 Ks
- FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 7.6 Ks
I'll happily take the value with the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Luis Severino Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
| Yankees @ Rangers | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Luis Severino has accomplished another strange season, missing plenty of more time due to injury and barely scraping together 95 innings and 18 starts.
But he's been relatively effective when he has taken the mound. He's still striking out more than 10 batters per nine — the third straight season he's done it with 100 IP or more — and has kept his xERA close to 3.10 despite a 3.44 ERA.
There was a moment in the middle of the season when Severino was healthy and absolutely dealing. He struck out five or more in seven straight starts, including at least seven Ks in six of those starts.
The fastball still has juice and he has three secondary pitches with whiff rates over 31%. It's the slider that tends to fool hitters, however.
Luis Severino, Filthy 86mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/RGG5QOdyDk
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 26, 2022
Severino returned from injury 10 days ago and has increased his pitch count slowly over the last two starts. He struck out six Pirates over 64 pitches and four Blue Jays over 76 pitches.
Severino should hit this number if he gets 80 pitches tonight. The Rangers have struck out at the highest rate in baseball against RHPs over the last month, at a whopping 28.7%. They pair that with the league's second-lowest wRC+, at 74.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Severino marked for 7.3 Ks tonight, while FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections mark him for 6.4.
Again, we're getting good value with this plus-money price.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+112)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
