We finished off the first weekend in September strong, going 5-1 on MLB player props.
With a new week set to begin, I have my eyes on three pitcher MLB player props to target Monday.
MLB Player Props for Monday, September 9
- Paul Blackburn Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145, DraftKings)
- Cade Povich Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140, bet365)
- Walker Buehler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets, and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Mets vs Blue Jays MLB Player Props: Toronto to Get to Blackburn
Paul Blackburn will be returning from the injured list tonight, and he has a tall task ahead of him in the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays have been red-hot over the last month against right-handed pitching. Toronto ranks first in wRC+ and fourth in OBP over the last 30 days, and it's a terrible matchup for a pitcher like Blackburn.
Blackburn relies on generating soft contact and has done a good job inducing soft contact this season. However, with this being his first start since August 23, we may see some rust and missed spots, which Toronto will capitalize on.
Aside from the mistakes, Toronto is a team that puts the ball in play at a high rate. It ranks fifth in zone contact rate and second in chase contact rate.
The high amount of balls in play increases the chances of balls finding spots where fielders aren't.
Blackburn has allowed at least five hits in 10 of his 14 starts this season, and with Ballpark Pal projecting him to allow 5.8 hits tonight, it's a good bet that we'll see an 11th tally in that column.
Pick: Paul Blackburn Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145)
Orioles vs Red Sox MLB Player Props: Povich Bound to Regress
Cade Povich comes into his outing on Monday off his best performance of his major-league career. Povich dominated the White Sox, throwing 7.1 innings of shutout ball while striking out 10 and walking none.
However, based on what we've seen from him overall, that performance was an outlier. Povich doesn't profile to strike out many batters as his CSW sits in the 38th percentile and his swinging strike rate is in the 23rd percentile.
He'll face the Boston Red Sox tonight, who struck out six times against Povich in their meeting last month. The Red Sox are a team that strikes out a great deal, but with Povich bound to regress tonight, it's unlikely we'll see him exceed this total.
This total is Povich's true ceiling. Aside from his last start, all three times he's gone over this total, he's only struck out six at most.
Pick: Cade Povich Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Cubs vs Dodgers MLB Player Props: Bad Matchup for Buehler
Lastly, we turn our attention to Walker Buehler, who's yet to regain his pre-injury form in 2024. Buehler missed the entire 2023 season and hasn't been the same pitcher in his 12 starts this season.
Buehler has been unable to fool hitters or miss bats as his whiff rate sits in the sixth percentile and his chase rate is in the seventh percentile. That amount of contact isn't good for Buehler as he doesn't excel in generating ground balls.
He's allowed loads of hits in his outings as he's gone over this in 83% of his 12 starts.
Tonight, he'll face a Chicago Cubs lineup that's been seeing the ball well lately. The Cubs rank fourth in wRC+ and OBP against righties over the last 30 days.
They should be able to create traffic by putting balls in play against Buehler and get him over this total for the 11th time this season.
Pick: Walker Buehler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
