Aces are wild on Friday's slate, and that's great news for us in the MLB player prop bets market. I've found three starters who are going to start our weekend on the right foot.
So, let's dive into our MLB player props for Friday, July 12 — featuring picks for Garrett Crochet, Freddy Peralta, and Sonny Gray.
MLB Player Props Today: Friday, July 12
- Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
- Freddy Peralta Under 18.5 outs (-180, BetRivers)
- Sonny Gray 6+ Strikeouts (-150, FanDuel)
Today’s top MLB player props include some exciting picks for Garrett Crochet, Freddy Peralta and Sonny Gray.
We kick things off with arguably the game's most prolific strikeout pitcher, Garrett Crochet. The Chicago White Sox lefty has wiped out opposing batters this season with a 34.8 percent strikeout rate.
Crochet drastically improved his command from last season, making him an AL Cy Young candidate. He gets to boost his campaign tonight as he'll be up against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against lefties on the season. They will be overmatched by Crochet tonight, which gives him a double-digit strikeout upside.
After all, we've seen him exceed this total in 53 percent of his starts this year and six of his last ten, where he is averaging 8.2 strikeouts per start.
Next, we head to Milwaukee, where the Brewers will hand the ball to their ace, Freddy Peralta. Peralta has pitched better than his 3.95 ERA portrays, but he has a sneaky tough matchup tonight in the form of the Washington Nationals.
The Nats have been solid against righties lately, as they rank 8th in wRC+ and 5th in OPB over their last 15 games. Another big part of their game is that they don't strike out much, ranking 22nd in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching as well.
All of those rates pose a problem for Peralta who relies heavily on strikeouts for success. If he can't record strikeouts and works deep counts like we've seen him do all season, we shouldn't see him take the mound in the seventh.
That has been the trend for Peralta this year, as he's gone under 18.5 outs in 16 of his 18 starts this year.
Lastly, we head to St. Louis, where Sonny Gray will be on the bump for the Cardinals. Gray has been a revelation for the Cardinals rotation this year, and strikeouts have been a big part of his success.
Gray's strikeout rate is up nearly seven percent from last year and sits in the 93rd percentile. Tonight, he gets to face a rival Cubs lineup that has the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the season.
It's clear Gray has a high strikeout upside in this matchup, but the most value is in an alternate market. On FanDuel, Gray is just -150 to record six strikeouts when the rest of the market is around -170 or higher.
While you're getting one of the best prices in the market, his implied odds of striking out six tonight based on his 81 percent hit rate this season are -426.
