We narrowly missed a winning day yesterday as Charlie Morton barely snuck over his strikeout prop line. However, things are still pointing up heading into Sunday's MLB slate, and I've found three more starting pitchers worth targeting.
Let's meet them in my MLB player props for Sunday, August 25.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Sunday, Aug. 25
- Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+124, FanDuel)
- Javier Assad Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105, bet365)
- Gavin Stone Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Angels vs Blue Jays Player Props: Kevin Gausman Due for Regression?
Kevin Gausman has been a bit of an enigma this season, as regression has certainly hit him overall, but we've also seen flashes of dominace. The cause of this type of season from Gausman is a steep drop off in strikeout rate. Gausman's strikeout rate is down 10% from last season. His inability to generate swings and misses has led to much more hard contact and, subsequently, gaudy numbers for his standards.
This afternoon, he takes on a familiar lineup in the Los Angeles Angels. I say familiar because Gausman was lights out against them two starts ago. He threw seven shutout innings while allowing just six hits, but importantly, only five strikeouts. That number is key as it's the total we have today, and signs point to a different outing from Gausman.
Gausman is due to regress in this outing, as his xERA and xFIP are higher than his actual numbers for the year. Also, the Angels do not profile to strike out much. The Angels are 15th in zone contact and 18th in chase contact, but they are 13th in chase rate. We are getting great line value on Gausman regressing this afternoon in a matchup that is tougher than it looks.
Cubs vs Marlins Player Props: Sell High on Javier Assad
Next, we head to Miami, where we have another starter due for regression this afternoon. Javier Assad will take the ball for the Chicago Cubs for the 24th time this year.
On the surface, Assad has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.11 ERA, but his 1.36 WHIP is just the beginning of how fortunate he's been this year. Assad's xERA is exceptionally high at 4.52, but his SIERA and xFIP are even higher at 4.68 and 4.61, respectively.
It's clear that Assad is overdue for a clunker, and the amount of traffic he's wiggled around this year has made him a five-and-fly starter. Today, he'll have to contend with a Marlins lineup that has been surging lately.
Miami comes in 9th in OBP and 19th in wRC+ against righties over the last 15 days. With Miami seeing the ball well and Assad due for a rough outing, we should see him exit before the sixth in this one.
After all, that's been his trend this year, as he's gone under this total in 61% of his starts.
Rays vs Dodgers Player Props: Favorable Matchup for Gavin Stone
I faded Gavin Stone in his last outing against the Seattle Mariners, which was risky as they are a strikeout-prone team. Well, let's say I've learned my lesson, as Stone dominated the Mariners.
He struck out 10 batters and just two hits in seven innings, crushing his strikeout total of 5.5. However, today, we get to wager with the same total, and Stone has another plus-matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Tampa Bay Rays come in with the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors against righties over the last month, and they profile to struggle against Stone. Stone has a deep arsenal of pitches and relies on hitters to chase; he's been excellent at doing so, as his chase rate sits in the 83rd percentile.
A big reason for the Rays high strikeout rate is their chase rate. The Rays have the eighth-highest chase rate in baseball and are 18th in chase contact. However, Stone will also benefit from throwing strikes against Tampa Bay as they have the third-lowest zone contact rate.
All signs point to Stone building upon his last start this afternoon.
