MLB Player Prop Odds, Picks Today
Mariners vs Nationals
George Kirby
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
George Kirby has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in exactly half of his starts this season — five of his first 10.
This is a tough matchup for him against the Nationals. He's been pitching to contact a bit more recently and it seems to be by design as he's throwing his sinker as a higher rate over the last four games. In fact, last start it was his most-used pitch at a 37% usage rate.
Kirby throws that sinker to get ahead in the count and initiate weak contact. I could see him continuing that trend here against a Nationals team that whiffs at a below-average rate.
Kirby also sees a pretty big drop-off in his strikeout rate on the road, as it's about 6% lower than when he pitches at home. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is typically one of the more K-friendly parks year over year, so this trend is true for most Mariners pitchers.
I'm projecting Kirby with closer to a 67% chance –or -200 — to stay under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
