Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev has that job for Friday, June 19.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Houston Astros Moneyline (-120)
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-126)
- Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-120)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Picks
Kevin Gausman vs. Ben Brown is an intriguing pitching duel in an old-school vs. new-school way. Both righties are having excellent seasons. Gausman's 3.41 ERA is nearly two full runs above Brown's 1.71, but their peripheral stats are identical.
While Brown is due for a regression, the Cubs starter has been a much better pitcher at home this season. His 20.4% K-BB and 2.91 xFIP at Wrigley Field are far better than his 14.8% K-BB and 3.66 xFIP on the road. Brown's ERA is slightly better on the road, only due to BABIP luck.
Meanwhile, Gausman is a much worse pitcher away from Rogers Centre. His road 12.6% K-BB and 4.55 xFIP are far cries from his 25.2% K-BB and 2.81 xFIP on the road.
Also, the Cubs just demoted early-season star, Moises Ballesteros. The lefty DH/C was on a tear in April, but has had an 8 wRC+ since his last home run (May 3) and a 59 wRC+ in June. Swapping his spot in the lineup with any bench hitter should be considered an immediate improvement.
With Chicago's offense against RHP (105 wRC+) better than Toronto's (100 wRC+) and the Blue Jays' high-leverage arms almost entirely pitching twice in the past three days, the Cubs are the much better bet for today.
Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-120)
Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Picks
Tatsuya Imai was again knocked out in the first inning during his most recent start. This marks the second time in 2026 that the Astros SP has failed to complete the first inning. However, his first time was due to poor command. He walked four of seven batters and was removed from the game.
This past weekend's occurrence was due to bad luck. Four of Imai's seven batters in the first inning earned a hit. He did walk a batter, but came away from the outing with a season-high .800 BABIP. Even with this outing in his game log, Imai still has a quality 3.83 xERA and 4.02 xFIP since May 18.
Tanner Bibee has not had comparable peripherals, despite much better results over the same span. His 5.91 xERA and 4.33 xFIP since May 15 are both worse than Imai's, yet his ERA is a full run lower in this span.
Furthermore, Houston's offense is far better than Cleveland's, especially with Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, and Angel Martinez all on the Injured List. Houston has a 103 wRC+, and Cleveland owns a 92 wRC vs. RHP.
The Guardians' offense is likely anemic until they get healthy, while the Astros are finally reaching full strength.
Picks: Houston Astros Moneyline (-120)
Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks
Griffin Jax evolving into a better starter this season than a reliever is astounding. Typically, players who struggle as starters can find success in relief, or relievers can be stretched into starters, with lesser results.
This season for Jax is an anomaly. The Rays pitcher posted a 5.14 ERA, backed by a 6.04 xERA and 4.62 xFIP, from March 26 to May 2 as a primary reliever, with no more than 2 and 2/3 IP.
Since May 7, Jax has a 3.00 ERA backed by a 4.40 xERA and 3.48 xFIP. He is not an ace, but he is a quality SP.
Jax has thrown at least four innings in all but one outing in this span. He has worse results at home, yet his strikeout rate is higher, while his walk rate, WHIP, and xFIP are lower.
Cade Cavalli, his opponent on the mound today for the Nationals, also has better rate stats at home, while his performance is better there as well. He struggles on the road with a 12.4% K-BB compared to 20.6% at home and peripherals over one run higher away from Nationals Park.
Despite two of their best hitters being right-handed, the Rays are 9th against RHP this season (105 wRC+). The Nationals are a league-average 17th vs. RHP (101 wRC+), but have had the better offense across the past month.
Nevertheless, the Rays' advantage in starting pitching and their (fresh) high-leverage relievers should be enough to win this game.
Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-126)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, June 19
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Houston Astros Moneyline (-120)
- Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-126)
- Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-120)
