We have another huge Wednesday of gambling on baseball ahead of us.
With games starting at noon and ending after midnight, our betting experts have pieced together five best bets for today's slate, beginning with Rays vs Guardians and ending with Rockies vs Reds.
Read on for our MLB picks and predictions today, including our 5 best bets for Wednesday, April 29.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today: 5 Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 2:35 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
 | 7:37 PM | |
| All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs Guardians Moneyline Pick
By Sean Paul
The Rays are hunting down the Yankees for first place in the American League East. I could see them not only hanging around in the AL East, but winning it.
One of the main reasons for that belief? Stud starter Drew Rasmussen. The former All-Star is on his way to another bid in the midsummer classic. He boasts a 2.45 ERA with a 2.65 xERA and a 4.10 FIP.
The only issue for Rasmussen this year is the long ball, allowing 1.75 homers per nine. On the flip side, he walks just 1.40 per nine, while striking out 9.12. The Rays will live with the occasional long ball, especially a solo one.
I view this year's Rays offense like I did the Blue Jays last year — with a little less power. They walk at a strong 10% rate while striking out just 18% of the time. That puts pressure on opposing pitchers to stay in the zone. If they can't, the middle- and bottom-half hitters in the Tampa lineup can quickly end up at second or third base with their speed.
Since April 14th, the Rays are 15th in MLB with a 105 wRC+. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda have hit the cover off the ball in those two weeks, combining for 10 homers. Several of the contributing players, including Jake Fraley, Johnny DeLuca, and Ryan Vilade, have also performed very well.
On the mound for the Guardians is fireballing right-hander Gavin Williams. He gave up six runs to the Blue Jays in his last outing, boosting his ERA to 3.28. He also has a 4.10 xERA and a 4.45 FIP, which point towards looming regression.
This matchup spells disaster for Williams. He throws absolute gas and punches out 11.1 batters per nine, but this Rays team doesn't strike out. He also walks 4.79 per nine, and the Rays will gladly work Williams's pitch count and force a struggling Guardians bullpen into action.
My long-term concern is this Guardians lineup. They had their chances in the first two games of this series in almost identical scenarios — and the nightmare of Cleveland fans happened again, failing to score in clutch moments. On Monday, the Guardians had runners on second and third with one out in the ninth and punched out twice. The following night, they had bases loaded in the 8th with one out, and Chase DeLauter punched out before Jose Ramirez flew out.
The Guardians absolute ceiling is a league-average offense, which it was early in the year. In the last two weeks, Cleveland has fallen to 20th in wRC+. That feels more like the sweet spot for this Guardians team. To put up runs, they need small ball, stealing bases, pushing the envelope, and making the most of each opportunity. They failed to do that in the first two games against Tampa.
Daniel Schnemann leads the Guardians with a 231 wRC+ in those two weeks, while Jose Ramirez and Bryan Rocchio boast a wRC+ better than 140.
I just don't buy this Guardians team and want all the Rays stock. Williams will struggle to get swings and misses, and he can run up the pitch count when he hunts the strikeouts.
Give me the Rays for the sweep.
Pick: Rays ML (-120 or Better)
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Yankees vs Rangers Over/Under Pick
While the consensus line sits around 8.5, Zerillo projects this total at 7.6 runs, providing a 6% edge against the market.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Zerillo logged the Under in the app, saying his limit is Under 8 at -108 or better.
Globe Life Field has turned into a pitcher's paradise over the past three seasons (92 Park Factor, tied for lowest in MLB with T-Mobile Park).
I don't think the market has quite caught up to this change, as Unders are 108-64-4 (63% win rate) in Arlington over the past three years (+36 units, +20.4% ROI).
Pick: Under 8 (-108 or Better)
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Cubs vs Padres Player Prop Pick
By Ryan Minion
Fernando Tatis Jr. has had a rough start to the season, having yet to hit a single home run. But it’s only a matter of time until he finds his rhythm at the plate, and it’s a good time to buy low on San Diego’s slugger.
Jameson Taillon is set to take the mound for Chicago, and he’s also had a tough start to the season, posting a 4.55 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across his first five outings.
Taillon just can not sustain velocity on his four-seamer anymore, so he’s been allowing more hard contact than ever — he’s already allowed seven homers. He’s also struggling with his command and control. Both are major issues for a guy who relies on precision pitching and ground balls.
In six career at-bats against Taillon, Tatis is 2-for-6 with a home run and a double.
It is only a matter of time until the Padres’ slugger finds form at the plate, and I think Wednesday afternoon presents a prime opportunity for him to do so versus a pitcher he has already gotten the best of in previous encounters.
Check out Minion's favorite total bases props for Wednesday here:
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130 or Better)
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Rockies vs Reds MLB Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
This system fades elite teams (60% or better win rate) when public money is heavily skewed against the underdog (less than 35% backing).
It targets road underdogs on minor losing streaks (one to three games) in regular-season spots.
The idea is that betting markets often overprice good teams, especially at home, creating value on contrarian visitors.
Despite a low win rate, big plus-money payouts generate positive ROI.
Want more Bet Labs systems? Get an Action PRO subscription today:
Pick: Rockies ML (+120 or Better)
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Iowa Cubs vs St. Paul Saints Over/Under Pick
By Adam Trigger
Neither team has any pitching right now, and these are two of the better Triple-A lineups.
This series should be a slugfest.
St. Paul’s lineup is also likely undervalued, as the Saints have dealt with brutal weather in the first month of the season, which has dragged down their offensive numbers.
Iowa slumped a bit over the past few weeks, but the Cubs are loaded, so I believe their lineup is undervalued as well.
Per my rankings, Iowa’s Pedro Ramirez is the best all-around hitter in Triple-A. He’s hitting .323 with a 1.022 OPS behind seven homers. He’s also well protected in a lineup that features BJ Murray, Jonathan Long, James Trianots, and Kevin Alcantara. Plus, with veterans Dylan Carsona nd Chas McCormick hitting toward the bottom of the order, this Iowa lineup is one of the strongest top-to-bottom among MiLB squads.
The same thing can be said about St. Paul. Alan Roden has been great at the Triple-A level, and he’s surrounded by stud prospects with the Saints, including Kaelen Culpepper, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez — although the best of all those prospects is Walker Jenkins. Plus, the Saints just called up Ben Ross, who was raking at the Double-A level.
Both of these teams are decimated in the pitching department. The Cubs have sent an insane number of pitchers ot the IL this season, while St. Paul already had a brutal bullpen and has also lost two pitchers this past week (Connor Prelipp and Kendry Rojas to the MLB level).
The Over should be good in every game of this series.
Check out all of Trigger's Triple-A picks here:
Pick: Iowa Cubs vs St. Paul Saints Over
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Zerillo's Full Action App Card
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