Welcome back to the Wednesday MLB slate breakdown. We have a whopping eight day-games on this beautiful Wednesday, as the weather starts to get warmer and warmer.
The biggest storyline today is Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard going head-to-head against their former teams.
Be sure to check out our MLB odds page for up-to-the-minute odds changes across multiple sportsbooks, as well as our MLB Projections page, which helps you find the best value across the board.
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Guardians vs. Tigers
1:10 p.m. ET • Cal Quantrill vs. Spencer Turnbull
Spencer Turnbull didn't pitch at all in 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. In his first two starts this season against Tampa Bay and Boston, he got roughed up pretty badly.
However, in his last start, he gave up only one run on six hits against a good Blue Jays lineup. His velocity is down on his top three pitches, and most notably his fastball has gone from averaging 93.8 mph in 2021 to 92.6 mph in his first three starts.
With all of that being said, he was a 3.01 xERA pitcher in 2021 before Tommy John. He also had a Stuff+ of 107 and a Pitching+ 103, which was the best among Tigers starting pitchers. So, if he can find that level again, there's no reason he should be an underdog to Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill was a 4.31 xERA pitcher with one of the lowest K/9 rates in baseball in 2022. He basically only throws a sinker and a cutter, so he's very reliant on getting weak contact, which he actually did a good job of last season. However, he allowed over a .250 xBA on both his cutter and sinker, along with allowing the highest hard-hit rate of his career.
Dating all the way back to last season, the Tigers have at least been average against right-handed cutters and sinkers putting up a .256 xBA and .317 xwOBA. He also had the third-worst Pitching+ rating among qualified starting pitchers last year.
Last season, the Guardians were a top-five defensive team by defensive runs saved. Although it's a small sample size, they're near the bottom of MLB in that category this season, while the Tigers have been a top-10 defensive team.
I have the Tigers projected as a small favorite for both the first five innings and full game, so I like the value on them at +125 for both the first five and full game, which is available at BetMGM.
Pick: Tigers F5 (+125) & Full Game ML (+125)
Rangers vs. Royals
2:10 p.m. ET • Martin Perez vs. Brady Singer
I really think Brady Singer should be a more significant favorite over Martin Perez for the first five innings.
Singer had his best season as a pro in 2022, posting a 3.97 xERA and a 3.30 xFIP in over 120 innings. He basically only throws a sinker and slider with both pitches being effective last season. Both pitches allowed an xwOBA under .310.
The Royals' righty is pretty reliant on getting ground balls to be effective, as his ground ball rate for his career sits around 50%. He's only at 42% through his first three starts, which could be a reason why he's struggled out of the gates.
Dating back to last season, the Rangers were below average against right-handed sinkers and sliders, putting up a .234 xBA, .296 xwOBA and a -8.2 run value. So, this should be a good matchup for Singer.
Perez had a resurgent year in 2022, recording a 2.89 ERA and finding himself in the running for American League Cy Young. However, his xERA was at 3.59.
What was the big change he made to have this type of success into his 30s? First off, he made drastic improvements on both his cutter and changeup in terms of how used them and his ability to locate them around the plate.
More importantly, though, he stopped giving up so many home runs. Perez's HR/9 rate had been above 1.1 dating all the way back to 2017. In 2022, he had a 0.50 HR/9 rate. This season, however, he seems to have dipped back into his old ways, as he's given up three homers in three starts. His Pitching+ last season was fourth-worst among qualified starting pitchers as well.
I have Singer and the Royals projected at -118 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -105, which is available at BetMGM.
Pick: Royals F5 ML (-105)
Mets vs. Dodgers
4:10 p.m. ET • Max Scherzer vs. Noah Syndergaard
Max Scherzer had a couple of rough starts to begin the season, but he rebounded by putting on a vintage Scherzer performance against the Padres, going five scoreless innings and giving up just one hit while striking out six batters.
Scherzer is an interesting case because his first two starts were really bad. But looking at his Stuff+ and Pitching+ ratings from his first three starts overall, they haven't changed at all from 2022 when he was a 2.87 xERA pitcher. So, there's no need to panic about Scherzer.
The Dodgers lineup just doesn't have the depth that it's had in years past, and now Will Smith just went in the IL. Additionally, the Dodgers lost Miguel Rojas to a hamstring injury, which led Dave Roberts to say Mookie Betts could be playing shortstop on Wednesday.
#Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Mookie Betts will be back from paternity leave tomorrow. And it sure sounds like he’s going to start at shortstop.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) April 18, 2023
On the other side, Noah Syndergaard is just not the pitcher he was when he was with the Mets.
In those years in New York, his xERA never got above 3.5, and his K/9 rate was never below 9. Last season with the Angels and Phillies, his xERA sat at 4.31, and his K/9 rate was just 6.05 in 24 starts.
The reason for that is that he’s completely lost all of the velocity on his sinker and fastball. Before he had Tommy John surgery in 2019, his fastball and sinker were averaging over 97 mph. Through his first three starts, he’s averaging below 93 mph on those two pitches, which is a massive difference when you’re a power pitcher like him.
So, with Scherzer having a pretty significant advantage in the first five innings, I like the value on him and the Mets at -124 (FanDuel).
Pick: Mets F5 ML (-124) |
Brewers vs. Mariners
4:10 p.m. ET • Eric Lauer vs. Marco Gonzales
Eric Lauer has had a bad start to 2023. But since he's become a full-time starter in the past two seasons, his xERA has been sitting right around 4.00, making him a perfectly average MLB starting pitcher.
He had one really bad start against the Cardinals, where he gave up six runs, but his other two starts against the Padres and Cubs were just fine. In fact, he was quite good in his last start against the Padres, going six innings and giving up just one run.
Eric Lauer has one of the better left-handed fastballs in Major League Baseball. He averages just over 92 mph on it, but opposing hitters had only a .188 xBA and .271 xwOBA against it last season. He also produced close to a 30% whiff rate on it last year.
The Mariners were very average against left-handed pitching last season. This season, in a very small sample size, they have put up a wOBA of just a .286.
For the past four seasons, Marco Gonzales has outperformed his expected ERA. Gonzales is now in the later stages of his career and is averaging just 88 mph on his fastball and 86 mph on his cutter. Both pitches allowed an xwOBA above .370 last season.
He had one of the worst K/9 rates for qualified starting pitchers at 5.06, and he's very reliant on getting ground balls with his changeup, which is his best pitch. Among qualified starting pitchers last season, Gonzales had the third-worst Stuff+ rating and the worst Pitching+ rating. He's going to regress at some point.
Seattle's bullpen usually has advantages over most teams, but the Brewers have put up the exact same Stuff+ and Pitching+ rating as the Mariners' bullpen to begin the season.
There is no way Gonzales should be a favorite over an average MLB starting pitcher, so I like the Brewers for the first five innings at +102 (BetRivers) and for the full game at +112 (FanDuel).
Pick: Brewers F5 (+102) & Full Game ML (+112) |
