We have an amazing Monday slate on the diamond.
As a result, our staff of MLB betting experts has bets for almost every game.
Read on for their MLB picks, predictions, and 4 best bets for today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 Strikeouts |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Rays Prop Pick
By Action Network Staff
Action PRO projects Reds starter Rhett Lowder for 3.05 strikeouts in his matchup against the Rays today, giving us a solid 9.5% edge against the market compared to his current prop line of 3.5, which is good enough to tag the Under with a B- grade in our system.
Lowder has recorded 15 strikeouts across his first four appearances this season, but that total has come without much consistency from outing to outing.
He’s technically gone under this number just once so far, finishing with two strikeouts in that start, but his overall profile suggests he’s more likely to land right around this range rather than comfortably exceed it.
Lowder doesn’t rely on overwhelming swing-and-miss stuff, instead pitching to contact and working efficiently through lineups, which can limit his strikeout ceiling.
Pick: Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 Strikeouts
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Braves vs Nationals Total Best Bet
By Action Network Staff
The Atlanta Braves visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park for the opener of a four-game series. The total for this NL East matchup is set at 8, with the line showing slight movement toward the Under as first pitch approaches at 6:45 PM ET.
This game fits the Weather Watch Unders system perfectly. Mild to cool temperatures in the mid-50s, combined with moderate northwest winds around 10-13 mph (blowing in from left field toward right), are expected to suppress fly balls and keep extra-base power in check at the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park.
Bryce Elder takes the mound for Atlanta, while Jake Irvin starts for Washington. Elder has been exceptional early this season, and even with Irvin struggling, the combination of strong pitching, cool air, and wind blowing in creates ideal conditions for a lower-scoring affair.
The Braves bring one of the better offenses in baseball into the game, but the environmental factors tonight should limit their ability to drive the ball consistently. The Nationals have been inconsistent offensively, and the cool, breezy conditions are likely to further dampen run production.
The market opened with expectations of a more standard total, but the subtle tick down reflects sharp money recognizing these weather impacts that the public often overlooks.
The Weather Watch Unders system excels in exactly these spots: regular-season games where prior offensive reputations inflate the total, but current on-field conditions — moderate winds and cooler temperatures — quietly suppress scoring.
By fading the inflated expectations created by recent team outputs rather than the actual playing environment, this system has uncovered reliable edges for totals bettors.
Pick: Under 8
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Mike Ianniello's Phillies vs Cubs Over/Under Bet
These two teams are quickly going in opposite directions at the moment. Philadelphia is looking to stop a five-game losing streak, while Chicago is looking to keep its five-game winning streak going.
This Phillies offense has been brutal so far this season. They basically rely exclusively on Schwarber bombs to put up runs. They are not patient at the plate, do not hit well with runners in scoring position, and have pretty much struggled top-to-bottom.
The top-end guys in Harper and Turner have been hitting like middle-of-the-order guys, and the middle guys like Bohm and Stott have been a disaster.
Rea is nothing spectacular, but he has a high floor as solid back-end swingman option. He does a good job working deep into games and rarely walks batters. He keeps the ball on the ground and limits mistakes, which is all you want for the back of your rotation.
The Cubs lineup has been red hot at the plate, especially Hoerner, but with a cold weather blowing in and temperatures expected to be in the 40s on Monday, hopefully that is enough to cool off the Chicago bats.
With the cold weather and struggling Phillies lineup, look for this game to stay under the total on Monday night.
Read Ianniello's full Phillies-Cubs analysis here:
Pick: Under 7.5
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Jon Anderson's Orioles vs Royals SGP
By Jon Anderson
I don't have a ton of conviction in predicting the future for either of these starting pitchers: Kyle Bradish and Seth Lugo. The one thing I want to present again to you is that Stuff+ decline on Bradish's slider. It's more of a good slider this year rather than the league-topping slider we saw from him last year in his return from injury. Pairing that with a fastball (sinker) that simply can't get whiffs is a recipe for low strikeout totals.
It's juiced up, but I'm surprised at DraftKings putting this O/U at 5.5. Kyle Bradish (-157) looks good to me. But if you're super averse to the juice, we can find you another leg to tag on it.
Checking out the Matchups Model! This is a resource available to subscribers at MLB Data Warehouse, it gives you the numbers on how each hitter performs against the movement profiles of the pitches they'll see from tonight's opposing SP. Three Orioles stack up well against the barrage of stuff that Lugo throws:
- Gunnar Henderson: .401 xwOBA, 10.4% SwStr%, .288 AVG, .523 SLG
- Taylor Ward: .427 xwOBA, 8.5% SwStr%, .294 AVG, .576 SLG
- Pete Alonso: .423 xwOBA, 7.8% SwStr%, .291 AVG, .608 SLG
There's a bit of a boost in the hits market caused by Lugo only being good for 1-2 walks per night. And his lower strikeout rate means we'll get a bunch of balls put in play by the Orioles. Taylor Ward has looked the best of those three hitters so far this year, so I'll choose him for my two-leg parlay.
Pick: Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Strikeouts // Taylor Ward 1+ Hits (+136 SGP at DraftKings)
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