Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, May 30.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Saturday, May 30
- White Sox +116, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- Nationals +115, 1u (Bet to even)
- Cubs/Cardinals u8.5 (-115), 1u (Bet to -110)
- B.Woo o5.5 Strikeouts (-102), 0.51u (Bet to -120)
Tigers @ White Sox Picks
It’s hard to argue that Framber Valdez hasn't been a disappointment this year. His 4.28 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators except a 3.81 Bot ERA (106 Pitching+).
Pitch modeling is buying into the changeup (19%, 57 PB, 109 Pitching+) more than it has either of the last two seasons.
However, Valdez’s 10.1 K-BB% is his worst mark of any season with more than 10 starts and his 49.5 GB% is the first time he’s dropped below 50%. That brings into question a 44.2 HardHit% that’s within career norms, but more of a problem with increased elevated contact.
He’s been more hit or miss than a steady downward trajectory, allowing two runs or less in eight of 11 starts with two-thirds of his runs this season allowed in the remaining three, but the underlying metrics just don’t support all those quality starts. Valdez walked more batters than he struck out in two of them.
Then we have the White Sox who have been smoking LHP this year (119 wRC+) and pounding the ball at home (112 wRC+). The projected lineup also has a 111 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
This is a legitimate offense with each of the first six projected exceeding a 100 wRC+ against southpaws since last season with Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas above 120.
Alternately, Anthony Kay have been on the upswing, allowing just eight runs (six earned) over his last 27.1 innings, supported by a league average 13.2 K-BB% and just as much ground contact (49.3%) as Valdez.
Even better, Kay has just a 35.5 HardHit% with very similar pitch modeling compared to his opponent (3.70 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+).
Kay is mixing it up with a five pitch mix since returning to the states, all thrown between 14.7% and 26.8% of the time and throwing it a mph harder than when he left. The slider is the only one of those five that both PitchingBot and Pitching+ grade below average.
While the Tigers do possess a dangerous lineup against southpaws with those projected averaging a 118 wRC+ against them since last season, they have just a 98 wRC+ against LHP as a team a 94 wRC+ on the road this season.
That same projected lineup has just a 75 wRC+ over the last 30 days, as the team continues to struggle.
The Tigers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league and while their LHP lineup is a bit better, they still project -5 FRV (Fielding Run Value) or five runs worse than the White Sox.
Once we get into the bullpens, the teams are only separated by 0.05 runs via averaged estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) over the last month. Closer Kenley Jansen has just hit the IL for the Tigers, but some would argue whether that’s a positive or negative.
Even still grading Valdez as the better pitcher, the home team has enough going for them here that I project this a near even matchup and would play them down to around +110.
Unfortunately, many books are below that price. I considered omitting it, but FanDuel is floating +116, so I’ll include it for those who can catch it. Perhaps the information will still be useful even if it falls out of range.
Pick: White Sox +116, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
Padres @ Nationals Picks
While the Padres and Nationals have been going back and forth until San Diego grabbed a late lead and it may be too late for the Nationals with Mason Miller expected to work the ninth on Friday night, I still think the wrong team is favored on Saturday.
I feel a bit more strongly about this one and would play at any dog price, willing to take the larger risk with a Washington bullpen that’s been three-quarters of a run worse than San Diego (though still middle of the league) over the last month because the price is much better than F5.
Despite Michael King’s 0.9 run ERA advantage over Foster Griffin, the latter has a 1.8 point better K-BB% this year.
King’s walk rate is up to 11.3%. He tied a season high, issuing four walks for the third time this year last time out.
His pitch modeling has cratered with a 4.54 Bot ERA and 95 Pitching+ from career marks of 3.73 and 103.
Griffin has slightly better pitch modeling (4.26 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+), enjoying modest success with a 3.63 ERA that sits between contact neutral estimators between a 3.57 dERA and 3.79 SIERA.
The FIP and xERA slightly exceed four with 10 or 21 barrels leaving the park, but 12% Barrels/BBE with a league average ground ball rate and 37.1 HardHit% doesn’t mesh well and I suspect will improve.
I still grade King the slightly better pitcher, but see a more significant gap between the two offenses:
Teams:
Padres 89 wRC+ Road/73 wRC+ v LHP
Nationals 113 wRC+ Home/105 v RHP
Projected Lineups: (v L/RHP since 2025, L30 days overall)
Padres 101 wRC+ 72 wRC+
Nationals 99 wRC+, 127 wRC+
Gavin Sheets is the only projected San Diego hitter above a 102 wRC+ over the last month and he bats left-handed. By contrast, only two projected Nats fall below 101.
In addition to that bullpen edge, the Padres have a small defensive edge (5 FRV), but I have the wRC+ gap around 20 points, enough to support making the Nationals a small home favorite (slightly higher F5).
Pick: Nationals +115, 1u (Bet to even)
Cubs @ Cardinals Picks
Whiffed on this same play on Friday night after gaining a full run of closing line value. The Cardinals swapped pitchers (Leahy to Pallante), but it probably didn’t matter. Let’s try it again with same pitcher tonight.
Ben Brown started the season in the bullpen, but has successfully transitioned to the rotation due to injuries, striking out 23 of 77 batters with a 15.9 SwStr% in four starts.
He’s maintained his reliever velocity at 96.7 mph, a mph above last season, and has added a sinker this year (19.6%, 51 PB, 103 P+) to complement his fastball, which he’s reduced from 55.6% usage to 37.4% and curve (36.8%).
RHBs are seeing that sinker 40% of the time and have gone from a .317 wOBA last season to .200 against this year.
While it’s not led to a strikeout increase because that’s not what sinkers do, Brown’s overall ground ball rate has risen more than 10 points from 42.4% to 53.5% and what that’s done is keep the ball in the park. He’s gone from 11.4% Barrels/BBE and 18 home runs allowed last year to 6% and just one so far.
Kyle Leahy’s 4.44 ERA perfectly matches his SIERA and the xERA (6.32) is nearly two runs higher.
However, his K-BB% has gone from below five percent in four of his first five starts to 13.6% over his last five with a half mph increase in his sinker velocity and improved pitch modeling.
First 5 starts: 4.12 Bot ERA, 100 Pitching+
Last 5 starts: 4.46 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+
Not great, but more pitchable and it may be useful to note that all five runs surrendered in his last outing came in his last inning pitched, while he recorded a season high eight strikeouts.
Both offenses have been a bit above average, but the Cubs have been slumping with Nico Hoerner (67), Seiya Suzuki (49), Dansby Swanson (29) and Moises Ballesteros (0) all below a 70 wRC+ over the last month and only Michael Busch (168) and Ian Happ (128) above 107.
The bullpens have been marginal, but these are two of the best defenses in the league with projected lineups combining for 40 FRV.
Lastly, St Louis is a negative run environment with a 96 Park Run Factor via the latest Statcast data.
As of this writing, it seems only FanDuel is offering 8.5. I’d be comfortable playing under 8 to -110, but would drop my bet sizing to win 0.5u if losing that half run.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115), 1u (Bet to 8 -110)
Diamondbacks @ Mariners Picks
Lets wrap this one up with a strikeout prop.
Although he struck out only four last time out against a contact prone Kansas City lineup, Bryan Woo had struck out 26 of his previous 67 batters with a 14.0 SwStr%.
While his 23 K% on the season is 4.1 points below last season, he’s still striking out 29.1% of batters faced at home, just 0.5 points below last year and that’s because Seattle boosts strikeout rates by 15% for LHBs and 21% for RHBs.
That means an Arizona projected lineup that averages a 19.8 K% vs RHP since last season boosts up to at least 22.7% and that’s only if they were all left-handed. That's also projecting Arenado's return (14.6% vs RHP since 2025).
I have the true boost (projected RH & LHBs) around 18% for this game with a further 4% boost for umpire David Rackley.
That brings my overall strikeout rate expectation for Woo close to 30% for this start. Averaging 23 batters faced, I’d project him for closer to seven than six and see some value in this number up to -120.
Pick: B.Woo o5.5 Strikeouts (-102), 0.51u (Bet to -120)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, May 30
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- White Sox +116, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- Nationals +115, 1u (Bet to even)
- Cubs/Cardinals u8.5 (-115), 1u (Bet to -110)
- B.Woo o5.5 Strikeouts (-102), 0.51u (Bet to -120)
