Another Friday in May means another episode of the "Payoff Pitch" podcast.
On today's episode, we have two best bets from Action Network experts Charlie DiSturco and Sean Zerillo — one for Pirates vs. Blue Jays and one for Tigers vs. Red Sox.
Check out the full episode of "Payoff Pitch" below, and continue reading for our top MLB picks and predictions for Friday's games.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 p.m. | Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5 |
  | 7:10 p.m. | Red Sox F5 ML |
Blue Jays +Team Total Over 4.5 vs. Pirates
7:07 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Bailey Falter is long overdue to get hit and hit hard. He has an xERA around 5.00 and sits in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in strikeout rate, barrel rate and flyball rate.
He hasn't given up as many home runs as he probably should have at this point, and he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses. But he does get hit hard with a career-worst 43% hard-hit rate.
I'm rolling with the team total because I don't want to mess around with a moneyline around -170. I think fading Falter is the best way to approach this game, and I would take a look at Bo Bichette's props as well.
|  |
Red Sox +F5 ML vs. Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
I have this line projected closer to -170 and give the pitching edge to Tanner Houck.
His pitch mix has been completely overhauled like the rest of the Red Sox staff, and he throws a cutter, splitter and slider. He has good metrics this season with a 108 Stuff+ and a 3.2 xERA.
Kenta Maeda, meanwhile, has definitely taken a step back this year with a 4.9 xERA and 9% K-BB rate. His fastball velocity is down, and his Stuff+ metrics have dramatically fallen.
I have Boston projected at -170, so I would bet that up to -160 as a straight bet.
