Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, June 6.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Saturday, June 6
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- Mariners TT Over 4.5 (-106, 0.53u | Bet to -120)
- Cardinals ML (-126, 0.63u | Bet to -135)
- Giants/Cubs Under 8.5 (-122, 0.61u | Bet to 8)
- White Sox/Phillies Under 10 (-114, 1.14u | Bet to 9)
- Nationals/Diamondbacks F5 Over 4.5 (-140, 0.7u | Bet to 5)
- Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104, 1u | Bet to -140)
- Marlins ML (+125, 0.5u | Bet to +110)
- Guardians/Rangers Under 8 (-105, 1.o5u | Bet to 7.5)
- Dodgers TT Over 5.5 (-102, 1.02u | Bet to -120)
Mariners vs. Tigers Picks
Keider Montero has just a 10.6% K-BB with a 34.8% GB. That his 3.69 ERA complies with a 3.43 xERA is a bit perplexing, with a 42.6% HardHit and league average 8.7% Barrels/BBE, but he has generated a 15.6% IFFB with just as many popups (15) as barrels (16).
With his contact neutral estimators all sitting above four and a half in addition to marginal pitch modeling (4.09 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+), I have him around 4 1/3 runs per nine.
However, LHBs hit him much better than RHBs (20-point split this year and nearly 60 since last season), and the Mariners are likely to send six in today's game.
And while the park in Seattle may hide some of their prowess, the Mariners have a 119 wRC+ against RHP this season. The projected lineup has a 125 wRC+ against them since last season and a 134 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days.
Add in a Detroit defense that’s second to last in Runs Prevented (-13) and OAA (-16), with a projected lineup that’s accumulated -12 Fielding Run Value, and we’re starting to see some indicators of a high-scoring game for the Mariners.
Need more?
Detroit is in the bottom third of the league in bullpen estimators, not only over the last 30 days (4.68 FIP/4.33 xFIP/4.19 SIERA), but Sean Zerillo ranks them as his No. 28 bullpen.
Finally, Detroit plays as a perfectly neutral park, but winds blowing out to left around 15 MPH on Saturday afternoon could boost offensive production.
Pick: Mariners TT Over 4.5 (-106, 0.53u | Bet to -125)
Reds vs. Cardinals Picks
I remember hearing some broadcast or another talk about how Matthew Liberatore was finally turning into the pitcher the Cardinals had always hoped he would be.
I currently value him almost a quarter run below his 4.35 ERA because he has been pitching well over the last month (21.8% K-BB).
While Nick Lodolo allowed nine of his 16 runs this season in his first two starts, he’s also failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in two of three since.
Things are not going well for him, and his 5.20 ERA fits the underlying performance. It’s just five starts, but even dropping his projections closer to 4 1/2 doesn’t change my conclusion for this game.
The fact is, the Cardinals seem to have every advantage.
Offensively, their projected lineup has a 38-point wRC+ edge over the last 30 days and a 23-point edge against southpaws since last season.
Defensively, those same projected lineups would give St. Louis a seven FRV gap plus another seven base running runs.
Finally, they are at home, and their bullpen has been more than a full run better than the Reds over the last month, in which Cincinnati has been a bottom-three relief corps with a league-worst 5.71 FIP.
Not all of these advantages are significant, but combined, they are enough to find value in a lightly favored Cardinal team.
Despite the large bullpen gap, I have F5 and the full game price valued evenly. It’s just a matter of preference and whether you favor the potential of a push.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-126, 0.63u | Bet to -135)
Giants vs. Cubs Picks
All four weather sources I follow forecast temperatures around 75 degrees, with a 10- to 15-MPH wind blowing in from right field at Wrigley on Saturday afternoon.
Where they differ is the impact of those winds. They could have a moderately negative impact, or none at all.
Even assuming the latter, this park is an extremely negative run environment (90 Park Run Factor via Statcast) and should play pitcher-friendly.
Landon Roupp is coming off his worst start of the season in Milwaukee, with news breaking after the game that his back locked up on him. It does make some sense because, even allowing four runs in three of his previous five starts, he did so with a 20.7% K-BB, 5.6% Barrels/BBE, a 27.8% HardHit, and a .414 BABIP.
Assuming he wouldn’t be pitching if he weren’t healthy, I value Roupp around 3 1/2.
For last Saturday’s leadoff, I wrote how Ben Brown added a sinker to his repertoire, giving hitters something to look for in addition to fastball/curveball. The result has been a 22% K-BB through five starts.
Although he still has some issues with hard contact (50.8%), he’s generating 52.5% of his contact on the ground in his starts, while the wind should help circumvent the balls in the air.
Brown is not as good as his indicators around 3, but should remain at least a serviceable pitcher for the Cubs.
A wind blowing out game on Friday led to 21 runs, boosting the offenses, particularly for the Giants, who scored 18. I expect a lower-scoring game on Saturday.
Anything that stays in the park should play well for Brown and his .244 BABIP. Normally, that’s a sure candidate for regression, and it still is to some degree, but he has the best defense in the league behind him (22 Runs Prevented, 27 OAA). The Chicago projected defense has already accumulated 33 FRV.
Under, as in thunder, and I only say that because there is a chance of rain. For that reason and just to be cautious about Roupp’s back, I’m going to keep this smaller than I would prefer, also because the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122, 0.61u | Bet to 8)
White Sox vs. Phillies Picks
It took me a while to figure out why this total was popping. I need to have at least a reasonable appreciation for what the numbers are telling me.
Philadelphia is a positive run environment (104 PRF) with temperatures expected in the low 90s and a double-digit wind blowing out. On top of that, you have Andrew Painter, whose best non-pitch modeling estimator is a 4.41 SIERA (certainly far better than his 5.74 ERA, but still).
Then I noticed that these conditions have historically been worth less than a 5% boost in this park, and Randy Wolf is a pitcher leaning umpire. Also, Painter’s competent pitch modeling (4.02 Bot ERA, 105 Pitching+) is at least slightly encouraging.
For all the hype this team gets since firing their manager and going on a hot streak, the projected Philadelphia lineup has just a 98 wRC+ over the last month, and the team has a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year.
The White Sox also project as a defense worth 12 FRV this season.
Lastly, the Phillies have the number one bullpen over the last 30 days (3.39 FIP/3.05 xFIP/2.65 SIERA) in addition to being Sean’s second-rated bullpen.
Sure, Painter’s numbers scare me too, but I have both offenses rated only slightly above average, and 10 feels like far too much.
I would play this to 9, but drop to 0.5u below 9.5.
Pick: Under 10 (-114, 1.14u | Bet to 9)
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Picks
With the Diamondbacks already announcing a closed roof for Saturday, we have a stable run environment that is 8% above average.
We also know that hitter-friendly umpire Scott Barry is scheduled to be behind the plate.
That’s a 10% bump before we even get to the participants.
Zack Littell has posted an improved 3.62 FIP and .309 xwOBA over the last 30 days, with only two of his six barrels leaving the park, after allowing 13 home runs previously. He still has a 4.71 SIERA and 4.99 xFIP for the month with a 10.1 K-BB% and 31.7 GB%.
Non-FIP indicators ranging from a 4.17 Bot ERA to a 4.66 dERA suggest Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.24 ERA is two runs ahead of his underlying performance.
I threw out the FIP because only five of his 17 barrels have left the ballpark. The 6.5 HR/FB is about as sustainable as his 84.4 LOB% or a .258 BABIP allowed (compared to his career mark of .304).
Congratulations on the 59 BotCmd and 108 Location+. It helps, but ERod is pitching on borrowed time.
You might think a predominantly left-handed Washington lineup would struggle against LHP, but its 116 wRC+ against them proves that’s not been the case. In addition, its projected lineup has a 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The Nationals brought in an entirely new regime this year, and their hard work is showing up in the batter's box.
Similar to Friday night, I believe we see some run scoring early in this game.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-140, 0.7u | Bet to 5)
Pirates vs. Braves Picks
I’ll admit to being a bit surprised that Brandon Ashcraft is the F5 favorite in this road affair against Spencer Strider and the Braves (not that he doesn't deserve to be), but I don’t think he’s getting enough respect in regard to his strikeout prop.
To start with, Ashcraft has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts and nine of 12. He’s averaged 24.75 batters faced per start, establishing strong workload tendencies.
He’s also struck out 27.3% of the batters he’s faced on the season and over the last 30 days, with corresponding swinging-strike rates of 13.7% and 14.3%.
The projected Braves lineup, the only one they’ve been using against RHP most frequently recently, includes six LHBs and three RHBs, averaging a 21.6% K rate against RHP since last season.
Ashcraft does not have a reverse split, but has struck out LHBs 31.9% of the time this year, 10 points higher than against RHBs. His curveball (29% vs LHBs) has an overall 41.9% whiff rate (Whiff rate differs from SwStr rate in that the denominator is total swings rather than total pitches).
Lastly, park and umpire give us an additional nearly 10% strikeout bump.
As a result of all of the above, I have Ashcraft closer to seven strikeouts than six, while FanDuel is currently offering +104 to hit the latter number.
Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104, 1u | Bet to -140)
Rays vs. Marlins Picks
The Marlins have committed to a bullpen game on Saturday. What does that mean? We never exactly know.
As a group, said bullpen has the 12th-best estimators in the majors over the last month (3.90 FIP/3.93 xFIP/3.59 SIERA), while Sean projects them as his fourth-best bullpen with a 3.51 weighted FIP.
That’s at least comparable to Shane McClanahan, who has returned from two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery to pitch…adequately?
With a career low, but still above average 15.3% K-BB, a 39.6% HardHit, but 9.4% Barrels/BBE, and non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.38 dERA to a 4.04 Bot ERA, there’s no other way to put it (we omit the FIP with just two of 14 barrels going for home runs).
Assuming the standard Miami lineup against LHP, they have an 85 wRC+ against pitchers from that side since last year and just an 87 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. I certainly award that edge to the Rays.
However, the Marlins also project six FRV and two BRR gaps in their favor, along with a better bullpen than a Tampa Bay unit with the fifth-worst estimators over the last 30 days, and whom Sean ranks a bit better, but still just 15th, 11 spots behind his Miami ranking.
With Gusto and Phillips eating 6 2/3 innings on Friday, unless the Marlins are planning on chucking only their low-leverage relievers on Saturday, the Rays appear to be over-priced.
The F5 line (currently +136 best price) is fine too and larger than the full game offering, but won’t afford you the advantageous matchup against the Tampa Bay pen.
Pick: Marlins ML (+125, 0.5u | Bet to +110)
Guardians vs. Rangers Picks
The Rangers got their two most dangerous hitters, Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, back from the IL on Friday night and went on to win 3-2.
Globe Life Field continues to be death to offense, tying Seattle for the most negative run environment in the league (85 PRF), and with rain potentially in the forecast, we can be even more confident that the roof, which rarely opens, will remain closed.
According to Action Labs, Unders have gone 19-9-1 in this park for an 8.31 unit profit and 28.7% ROI this season. Globe Life Field Unders are a ridiculous 116-71-4 over the past three seasons (62% win rate, +36 units, 19% ROI).
Both Tanner Bibee and Jack Leiter have been near-average performers this season, with estimators averaging a bit below their respective 4.57 and 4.34 ERAs. Their largest problem is a barrel rate in the double digits, leading to xERAs around 4.5.
The Rangers have an 87 wRC+ at home, while the Guardians have 92 and 93 marks on the road and against RHP. Both projected lineups have a wRC+ below 100 over the last 30 days.
Defensive lineups project for a combined 18 FRV, and the Cleveland bullpen (2.98 FIP/3.30 xFIP/2.86 SIERA) has the second-best bullpen estimators in the league over the last month.
The market doesn't seem to have caught up yet. Why quit a winning formula?
Pick: Under 8 (-105, 1.05u | Bet to 7.5)
Angels vs. Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers scored only a single run in the ninth inning on Friday night, which was enough to walk off the game.
I don’t expect them to have a similar problem against Jack Kochanowicz on Saturday.
Kochanowicz is running a measly 3.8% K-BB with a 42.6% HardHit. Even with a 57% GB, he doesn’t have an estimator below 4.5, with all but a 4.59 dERA within half a run of his 5.23 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate have smoked him for better than a .350 xwOBA since last season.
A nearly full-strength Dodger lineup is averaging a 119 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 134 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
But wait, there’s MORE!
The Angels are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, with the projected lineup accumulating -16 FRV. Their bullpen has the league’s worst xFIP (5.19) over the last month and a FIP that’s even worse (5.21).
Act now, and you also get a positive run environment (104 PRF) with a moderate wind blowing out to center field.
It’s a large number, but the Dodgers should be up for it in one of the most favorable matchups an offense could ask for in this league.
Pick: Dodgers TT Over 5.5 (-102, 1.02u | Bet to -120)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, June 6
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- Mariners TT Over 4.5 (-106, 0.53u | Bet to -120)
- Cardinals ML (-126, 0.63u | Bet to -135)
- Giants/Cubs Under 8.5 (-122, 0.61u | Bet to 8)
- White Sox/Phillies Under 10 (-114, 1.14u | Bet to 9)
- Nationals/Diamondbacks F5 Over 4.5 (-140, 0.7u | Bet to 5)
- Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104, 1u | Bet to -140)
- Marlins ML (+125, 0.5u | Bet to +110)
- Guardians/Rangers Under 8 (-105, 1.o5u | Bet to 7.5)
- Dodgers TT Over 5.5 (-102, 1.02u | Bet to -120)
