As we’ve reached yet another Friday, I once again have an MLB prop parlay as part of my betting card for tonight’s massive slate.
For this installment, I’m focusing on two Cy Young-caliber pitchers and their alt-strikeout lines.
MLB Parlay: +146 at FanDuel
- Ranger Suarez 5+ Strikeouts
- Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts
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Suarez has been electric for the Phillies so far in 2024. Pitching to a 1.81 ERA (2.62 xERA), the southpaw has accrued career-highs in strikeout rate (28%) and called + swinging strike rate (28.6%). This has led to Suarez clearing this line in 10 of his 12 full starts.
On paper, it’s a scary matchup; the Orioles are a top-three lineup against lefties this season with a 127 wRC+ and .791 OPS. However, Baltimore is more strikeout prone, with a 23.7% strikeout rate (24.7% over the last 30 days). In fact, nine of the last 11 left-handed starting pitchers have cleared this line against them.
Finally, the Orioles struggle against ground ball-heavy pitchers with a 24% strikeout rate and .613 OPS. Suarez is elite at keeping the ball on the ground: 53.5% is in the 90th percentile (per Baseball Savant).
I have the Phillies starter projected to clear this line with just 21 batters faced.
In his first season with the Braves, Sale has regained his pre-injury form. With 92 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings, his 31.1% strikeout rate has him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers.
The lefty has reached the seven-strikeout mark in nine of his 12 starts, including at least eight punch-outs in six of his last seven outings. Sale should have another prime opportunity tonight, as the Rays have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against left-handers this season (25.3%).
As a team, the Rays have the sixth-highest called + swinging strikeout rate (28.6%). That should bode well for Sale, who's second amongst qualifiers with a 33.4% rate. Essentially, I’m counting on the lanky lefty to see an abundance of two-strike counts.
