Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs. Yankees
Thursday, March 30 1:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Giants +160  |
By D.J. James
Logan Webb is an underrated pitcher. This is likely because he is in the NL West, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres reside with his San Francisco Giants. In 2022, Webb held opponents in check by forcing grounders. He is not a flyball or strikeout pitcher. He only held a 20.7% strikeout rate, while inducing grounders 56.7% of the time, which was down from 2021, where he was over 60% on batted groundballs.
The New York Yankees ranked seventh in flyball rate against right-handed pitching in 2022, so Webb should be able to counteract that against a lineup that didn't see a lot of turnover outside of new shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Gerrit Cole is an ace in every sense of the word, but he is not infallible. In 2022, he ranked in the 25th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 29th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, while Webb ranked in the 39th and 41st percentiles, respectively.
In addition, Cole had a 42.4% groundball mark, which is pretty consistent with his entire career. Sure, he strikes out more batters than his counterpart in this game, but if Webb is forcing groundballs, these two are about even.
In 2022, San Fran ranked 11th in flyball rate against righties, too. Cole gave up 33 homers in 33 regular season appearances. It is not unforeseeable for the Giants to get to him at least once.
Webb is also an inning-eater, so he very well could see six-plus in this outing. As long as the Giants find a middleman who can get the ball to Camilo Doval to close this one out, taking the Giants in the opener is the right call.
Pick: Giants +160 (Bet to +145)
Braves vs. Nationals
Thursday, March 30 1:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Braves F5 TT Over 2.5 (+100)  |
Let’s get Opening Day started with a first five team total. If all goes as planned, you can be in 1-0 this MLB season by about 1:30 p.m. ET. Simply put, Patrick Corbin is one of, if not the worst starting pitcher in baseball. Last season, he posted a 6.31 ERA and 6.41 xERA. He had the worst ERA of any pitcher who threw at least 65 innings, and his 210 hits and 119 runs allowed last season were both the most in baseball.
Fading Corbin is basically a cash cow. If you bet against Washington in all of Corbin’s starts last season, you would have gone 25-6. In his 31 starts, the opponents scored at least three runs in the first five innings a whopping 19 teams.
In the Braves’ four games against Corbin last year, they went over this number in three of the four games, tagging the Nationals for 23 total runs … just in the first five innings of Corbin’s starts. He racked up a 9.42 ERA against Atlanta, which surprisingly was only his fourth-highest ERA against an opponent last year.
Atlanta’s lineup features four guys who have all taken Corbin deep multiple times, and that doesn't even include Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, or Michael Harris II.
With Corbin facing a lineup that likely starts off Acuna, Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Harris, and Ozzie Albies, this bet might cash before you finish your lunch break.
Pick: Braves F5 TT Over 2.5 (+100)
Pirates vs. Reds
Thursday, March 30 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Reds -134  |
By Nick Shlain
The Cincinnati Reds are at home to open the season against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that I have projected to finish in last place in the division.
The Pirates and Reds actually had the same record last year as both clubs lost 100 games. In this contest, though, I give the clear edge to the Reds mostly due to Hunter Greene being on the mound.
Greene struggled last year with a 4.44 ERA, but his underlying metrics were much better as he had a 4.00 xERA and 3.64 xFIP. He also finished the year strong. In only 35 1/3 innings in the second half of the season, Greene posted a 1.02 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.
Greene also has reverse splits as he allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters last year while allowing just a .305 wOBA to left-handed hitters. The Pirates lineup doesn’t have much in the way of right-handed threats at the plate. Just three right-handed batters are projected to be in the lineup Thursday for Pittsburgh and Andrew McCutchen (.300 wOBA), Ke’Bryan Hayes (.276), and Austin Hedges (.216) weren’t particularly effective against right-handed pitching last year.
On offense, the Reds have some intriguing hitters as Jake Fraley and Tyler Stephenson each had wOBAs of .364 against right-handed pitching last year. Leadoff man Jonathan India looks to bounce back from a down season last year and veteran slugger Wil Myers will be playing his first game with the Reds.
All in all, I like the Reds at home in the opener.
Pick: Reds -134
Pirates vs. Reds
Thursday, March 30 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Under 4.5 (-120) |
Mitch Keller finally showed himself to be the pitcher people for so long thought he could be in the second half of the 2022 season when he pitched to a 3.20 ERA.
He is one of the biggest Stuff+ improvers in spring training this season, too, and is poised to beat his projection numbers in 2023. The same is true for Hunter Greene, who struggled mightily with home runs and command after coming up in the big leagues in 2022. Keller's new sweeper slider and improved fastball velocity rated him at a 113 spring Stuff+, per Eno Sarris' model from The Athletic.
By the end of the season, Greene's stuff blew away major-league hitters and his command improved enough to make him an above average MLB starter. Keller and Greene are both pitchers I'm buying entering the 2023 season, hence why I like the first five under 4.5 at -125 or better in this matchup.
The lineups are well below average for both sides based on all projections and there doesn't seem to be much of a wind impact for this matchup in the very hitter friendly Great American Ball Park on Thursday afternoon.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
Twins vs. Royals
Thursday, March 30 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Twins -141 |
By Nick Shlain
Despite being -141 on the moneyline on Thursday afternoon against the Kansas City Royals, but I’m inclined to think there’s still value on the road favorite Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are set to face 39-year-old Zack Greinke, who is no stranger to Opening Day as he enters his 20th big league season. Greinke was effective last year, posting a 3.68 ERA. However, his underlying metrics were much worse as he had a 4.78 xERA and 4.54 xFIP. My projections for this season have Greinke with a 4.91 ERA.
As an experienced pitcher who’s spent most of his career in the American League, Minnesota’s offense is familiar with Greinke. Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon and Max Kepler all have at least 10 at-bats and a .300 AVG in their careers against Greinke.
On the other side, Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez was acquired from the Miami Marlins this offseason and almost no one projected to be in the Royals lineup has faced him before. Lopez also has a fairly pronounced platoon split as last year he allowed a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters compared to .283 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
Unfortunately for the Royals, they don’t quite have the left-handed hitters to take advantage of Lopez. Against right-handed pitching last year, M.J. Melendez (.294), Kyle Isbel (.273) and Michael Massey (.307) all struggled in the wOBA category, while Vinnie Pasquantino was phenomenal (.360).
The Royals' bullpen also struggled mightily last year with the fourth-highest ERA in the league (4.66), while the Twins were in the middle of the pack (3.84).
After adding Jorge Lopez in a midseason trade last year to go with Johan Duran, Minnesota should have enough at the back end of their bullpen to close this one out Thursday.
Pick: Twins -141
Rockies vs. Padres
Thursday, March 30 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Rockies +180 |
By Kenny Ducey
Opening Day is a one which carries with it a lot of pressure. Teams with lofty expectations and shiny new acquisitions are under the gun immediately and put on a much larger stage than they’ll be on for the majority of the regular season.
With that, underdogs can often be live on Opening Day. In fact, they’ve gone 16-13 over the past two seasons, netting bettors 8.56 units. For this reason, among a few others, I’m going to take a huge swing on the Colorado Rockies.
Now, if you’ve read our best bets in the futures market, you know I am not high on the San Diego Padres this season. The biggest reason why is their pitching staff, and the man who will take the ball on Thursday is among my least favorite in baseball.
Blake Snell closed out the 2022 season on a very impressive note, but for the better part of three seasons now has really struggled to meet expectations. Though his strikeout rate remains sky high, the left-hander has come in well below league average when it comes to limiting hard-hit balls and is very prone to giving up extra-base hits.
The Rockies match up pretty well against Snell. They were actually a league-average offense against lefties last year with a 100 wRC+, which is quite good considering they were 26th in baseball with an 86 wRC+ over the course of the regular season. They were also great at getting the bat on the ball, striking out just 21.8% of the time in all plate appearances and 20.2% of the time against left-handers, both of which ranked inside the top 10.
So, we’ve got a team that should make plenty of contact against Snell, who needs to strike guys out to get through games unscathed. We also have a lineup that will feature a healthy Kris Bryant, a Rookie of the Year hopeful in Ezequiel Tovar and newly acquired Jurickson Profar. All those guys will hit from the right side, and together with C.J. Cron, should make life difficult on Snell.
I know German Marquez isn’t the most exciting guy to bet on, but he does own an impressive 3.76 career ERA on the road and he also allowed just one run in 17 innings this spring. Against an offense that will be without Fernando Tatis, Jr. and likely starting David Dahl in his place, Colorado can get this done.
Pick: Rockies +180
