A new week of the MLB season is upon us, and Monday gives us a solid, 14-game slate with most of them taking place in the evening.
Among our staff's favorite picks tonight are Marlins vs. Phillies, Red Sox vs. Rays and Padres vs. Mets.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, April 10th.
Monday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Phillies
Monday, April 10 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)  |
By Nick Shlain
The Philadelphia Phillies aren’t off to a great start this year by any means. The Phillies find themselves at 3-6 after the first nine games of the year.
Philadelphia was already without superstar Bryce Harper and then got bit by the injury bug as Rhys Hoskins and Darick Hall went down, which depleted their first base depth.
The Phillies have been striking out a decent amount at the plate as they struck out at least nine times in all three games in their previous series against the Cincinnati Reds. Monday night, the Phillies will take on the Miami Marlins and their ace Sandy Alcantara, who hasn’t had as much strikeout success this year.
One of my favorite bets of the day Monday is Alcantara to go under 6.5 strikeouts.
Alcantara struck out 207 batters in 228 2/3 innings last year, but has struck out only seven batters in his first 14 2/3 innings this year. He’s seen his strikeout percentage go from 23% last year to just 13% so far in two starts this year. That isn’t going to get the job done, even against a Phillies team that will strike out a decent amount.
My projections have Alcantara for a 20% strikeout percentage this year so he’s due to regress, but he’s also projected for just 5.5 strikeouts, so that’s a value at these odds.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Red Sox vs. Rays
Monday, April 10 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox +135  |
By Sean Zerillo
The Rays are off to a historic 9-0 start, but they have also faced one of the easiest schedules you could ask for to begin a season — nine games against the Athletics, Nationals and Tigers.
The Rays’ average consensus price in those nine games was -250, or 71.4% implied. Even after configuring for vig, that is still roughly an average line of -228 (69.5%).
If you extrapolate that out, a team at that implied percentage (69.5%) over a nine-game stretch has about a 3.8% chance of winning all those games. Or, roughly, one in 26 times.
What’s far more impressive is that the Rays have easily covered the run line in each game, too. They haven’t just won against lesser competition, they have dominated.
Still, I projected Boston closer to +120 for Monday; I bet the Red Sox at +132 or better.
Additionally, play their F5 moneyline to +124.
Additionally, the total seems too high for a game at Tropicana Field.
Since 2005, games at the Trop with a total of 8.5 or higher have gone Under at a 54.5% clip (335-279-24). A consistent $100 bettor would be up $3,460 with a 5.4% ROI (Data via Action Labs).
I set the total around 8.1 for this matchup; bet the Under 8.5 to -105.
Pick: Red Sox +135
Padres vs. Mets
Monday, April 10 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mets -130  |
By Kenny Ducey
The Padres’ offense finally showed some signs of life on Sunday night against an inexperienced, mediocre lefty in Dylan Dodd, but this is no reason for me to change my stance on the team.
I still have a hard time trusting this offense considering the poor production it’s gotten around Xander Bogaerts. Juan Soto entered the game in a slump, Jake Croennworth still looks like he’s struggling and while Manny Machado is hitting .308, he has just two extra-base hits all year and no homers.
That’s not even touching on the fact that Yu Darvish, the man who dashed the Mets’ postseason dreams last year at Citi Field, isn’t quite that sharp right now. He did escape his first start of the season against the Diamondbacks with just a run against him, but he walked four – which is a huge sign for concern considering his documented issues with home runs over the years. On top of that, he struck out just three.
This is a guy who’s been allowing hard-hit balls for years and has relied mainly on a solid strikeout-to-walk ratio to avoid serious trouble. The Mets are a very disciplined team, and they also get to start Max Scherzer here against this suspect lineup. I love the Mets tonight.
Pick: Mets -130
