Welcome to Opening Pitch, my column that you'll find daily throughout the 2023 MLB season.
My goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight my top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis, mainly as I react to opening and overnight lines while using my baseball betting model.
I will look to release a new version of Opening Pitch daily between midnight and 3 a.m. ET; after I enter my overnight bets in the Action Network App and update the MLB projections. Hopefully, you will use it as your morning betting guide to get ahead of the baseball markets.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Expert Picks for Sunday, April 9
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Kutter Crawford vs. Matt Boyd
First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
We can continue our streak of betting on the Tigers against lefties and fading them with right-handed starters. I projected Boston's moneyline at -126 (assuming they don't sit any regular stars on Sunday afternoon). You can bet the Red Sox up to -116.
Additionally, we have some windy weather back in the midwest, which re-triggers our Action Labs system for Wind in both Cleveland and Detroit:
We have bet several weather-reliant Unders this week and done well betting the Unders this season (19-12-4, 13.6% ROI), even though the baseballs are juiced.
We have only placed nine over wagers (compared to 35 under wagers), and we have only gone 3-6 on those bets.
Given the wind and weather, I projected the totals in this matchup at 3.87 for the first five innings (F5) and 7.48 for the full game. Bet the Unders in both halves, to 4.5 (-130) and 8 (-104), respectively.
Pick: Under 8 (-104) |
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Nestor Cortes Jr. vs. Tyler Wells
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Both Cortes and Wells are pitchers I have regularly backed over the past two seasons, so I didn't expect to have action against either of them. And remarkably, I didn't expect to bet against Cortes here because the Orioles project much better offensively against righties (113 wRC+) than lefties (93 wRC+) in my model.
The Yankees have the advantages everywhere in this matchup, but the market is still too high on New York (assuming that Baltimore's star catcher, Adley Rutschman, is in the lineup on a Sunday). Bet the Orioles to +132.
Additionally, both pitchers should see favorable conditions. Wells is a popup pitcher who is typically protected by the deep left field wall in Baltimore, but the Park will see winds blowing in from the right-field porch to suppress potential flyballs there too
I projected the total closer to 7.5, and you can bet Under 8 to -108.
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians
George Kirby vs. Zach Plesac
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
To reiterate, wind conditions for the Mariners-Guardians matchup triggered the same Action Labs system above, which I posted under Red Sox-Tigers.
And as you can probably guess, I like the Under in this matchup, too, down to 7.5 at plus money (projected 7.24).
Moreover, I like the Guardians as a home underdog, down to +102. While the Mariners have a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup (roughly a 3.3 model ERA for Kirby and 4.8 for Plesac), the Guardians have saved their best relievers all series; I expect to see them deploy the entire lot – including Emmanuel Clase – fairly aggressively in a tight game.
Pick: Guardians ML +108 |
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Braxton Garrett vs. Carlos Carrasco
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
Braxton Garrett had a breakthrough 2022 season (3.50 xFIP, 4.05 xERA) and carries a severe pedigree (No. 7 pick, 2016 draft). He's the forgotten man amongst the Marlins' talented arms, but I expect the 25-year-old southpaw to continue to make adjustments and improvements.
Garrett has continuously moved away from his four-seam fastball towards a sinker to complement his plus slider. Garrett has frontline starter potential if he improves his changeup or finds a third pitch to help neutralize righties (career 2.96 xFIP vs. lefties; 4.21 vs. righties).
Conversely, Carlos Carrasco is on the downside of his career at age 36. Coming off an injury, he was awful during his first season in Queens (6.04 ERA, 4.69 xERA). He seemingly righted the ship last season (3.97 ERA, 4.08 xERA), but his velocity has continued to dip, sitting three ticks below his career average (94 mph) in his first start of 2023:
Given the trajectory of the two starters, I wanted to bet the Marlins here, but the model doesn't see value in the number (projected +141). The Mets' bullpen is better – and better rested for Sunday – and the Mets can toss out seven or eight right-handed bats against Garrett.
However, I can recommend the F5 Under 4.5 (to -127) and the full game Under 8 (+100), which you can bet down more than half of a run (to 7.5, -102). I projected those totals at 3.85 and 7.15, respectively.
Pick: Under 8 |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Woodford vs. Freddy Peralta
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
The Brewers sat atop the NL Central – four games ahead of the Cardinals – on Saturday morning. You could have bet the Cardinals to win the division at as high as +120.
Freddy Peralta has about as wide of a range of potential outcomes as any starter in baseball; he could challenge for the NL Cy Young or miss the entire season with an injury. And if he attempts to pitch through any injury, Peralta might look utterly awful.
Peralta has carried an expected ERA of around 2.7 for the past two seasons, putting him in the Ace tier, but on his worst days, he often can't find the zone and ultimately gets shelled. Peralta is good for a few of those per season, too; he's like a right-handed Robbie Ray.
Scouting reports – and projections – don't see Jake Woodford as anything more than a back-end starter (4.4 Model Weighted ERA). However, the Cardinals' key relievers are slightly better rested for Sunday than the Brewers' bullpen.
Bet the Cardinals on the moneyline at +135 or better.
Pick: Cardinals ML |
Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants
Kris Bubic vs. Anthony DeSclafani
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
You can back the Royals in San Francisco for the third consecutive day at +142 or better. We'll go for the coveted road underdog betting sweep on a team that I believe – quite clearly – has been undervalued all series.
Additionally, I like the Over in this matchup. Bet Over 8.5 to -110 (projected 9.05).
The temperatures and wind (blowing out to right center) should favor the hitters. I didn't have to downgrade the scoring environment at Oracle Park as much as I usually do for the chillier night games in the Bay Area.
Pick: Royals ML |
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Reid Detmers
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
I probably don't have to convince you to bet the Over on a Yusei Kikuchi start, but I'll permit you.
I projected the total at 10.02; bet Over 9.5 to -110.
For his career, the Over is 52-37-3 (58.4%, 13.5% ROI) in games started by Kikuchi.
I'm high on Detmers – and Kikuchi isn't as bad as his reputation; however, both offenses are deep, and the teams should see favorable hitting conditions with temperatures in the high 70s and the wind blowing out to right center.
Monitor whether the Angels sit Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani on Sunday. That was typically their load management plan in the past, but I expect the Angels to play their stars as often as possible this year, in what could be their final year as teammates.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Grove vs. Ryne Nelson
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks are the only team I project value on in both halves for Saturday. You can play the Serpentines to +105 in the F5 market and down to +115 for the full game.
Ryne Nelson (projected FIP range of 4.09 to 4.99) is a superior pitcher to Michael Grove (projected range of 4.64 to 5.31). Frankly, it's fantastic to see the dropoff in talent on this Dodgers team – especially on the pitching front – relative to previous seasons.
The Diamondbacks also get the nod in speed, baserunning and defense, which has seemed even more critical than I suspected it might, given all the rule changes. Young teams like the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Rays, and Orioles are beating clubs constructed to play the game as it existed for the past decade, not as it does now.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 +112 |
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Seth Lugo vs. David Dodd
First Pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
At the time of publication, I don't have a bet – or show value on an actionable angle – for Sunday Night Baseball.
However, the Braves' moneyline is just out of my price target; you can bet Atlanta on the moneyline at -110 or better.
Zerillo's Bets for Saturday, April 9
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- Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (+120, 0.5u) at MGM (bet to +105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +115)
- Baltimore Orioles (+135, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +132)
- Baltimore Orioles / New York Yankees, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -108)
- Boston Red Sox (-115, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -116)
- Boston Red Sox / Detroit Tigers, F5 Under 4.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -130)
- Boston Red Sox / Detroit Tigers, Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 8, -109)
- Cleveland Guardians (+115, 0.75u) at WynnBet (bet to +102; reduce risk to 0.5u below +110)
- Cleveland Guardians / Seattle Mariners, Under 8 (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 7.5, +100)
- Houston Astros F5 (+102, 0.5u) at BetRivers (bet to -110)
- Houston Astros (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -105)
- Kansas City Royals (+145, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +142)
- Kansas City Royals / San Francisco Giants, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
- Miami Marlins / New York Mets F5 Under 4.5 (-122, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -127)
- Miami Marlins / New York Mets Under 8 (+100, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 7.5, -102)
- Oakland Athletics (+275, 0.25u) at BetRivers (bet small to +245)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+135, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +135)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Los Angeles Angels, Over 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
