We had one of our two picks canceled due to a rainout yesterday, with the other one cashing. It's not the biggest day ever, but we'll take it.
I have three more picks on Tuesday.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 6, 2025
Reds vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott vs. Chris Sale
After a rough start to the season, 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale seems to have settled in.
His ERA is still an ugly 4.84, but his ERA predictors are all 3.32 or lower. He's also taking on a Reds team that's slightly worse against lefties, and much worse away from their home ballpark, which boosts scoring by 10%.
With Cincinnati implied for just 3.3 runs today, the Reds are not especially likely to cause any problems here.
The other side is a bit trickier, as Andrew Abbott isn't an especially strong pitcher. However, this year, the Braves' wRC+ against lefties is just 74, which is 30 points lower than their mark against righties.
For what it's worth, Abbott hasn't allowed a first inning run through his four starts. Let's hope he extends that streak to five.
Pirates vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Matthew Liberatore
I'm checking for NRFIs anytime Paul Skenes takes the mound this year. The 2024 Rookie of the Year has yet to allow a run in his first time through the order this season, a period of 16 2/3 innings. His Pirates also have a well-below-average offense, creating a solid scenario for NRFIs.
Pittsburgh is worse against lefties (72 wRC+) than righties (82), which is helpful with Liberatore on the mound. That's largely a function of their best hitter/leadoff man, Oneil Cruz, having a career .194 average against his fellow left-handers.
For what it's worth, Liberatore has also been a solid NRFI pitcher this year. He's allowed a first inning run in just one of his six appearances this season, though ironically (and hopefully coincidentally) it was against these Pirates.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Davis Peterson vs. Zac Gallen
This is the one bet we had yesterday that actually played, and we cashed it on a Corbin Carroll first inning home run. We're returning to the well tonight, with the thesis remaining largely unchanged.
Both teams have some superstar bats at the top of the order, including the aforementioned Carrol, Ketel Marte for the Diamondbacks, and Juan Soto and Pete Alonso for the Mets.
Marte returned to the lineup after about a month off last Friday, and is especially important here. His OPS against lefties last season was 1.080, which is needed against the Mets' southpaw David Peterson.
With a 9.0 total and neither pitcher being an especially fast starter, one of the sluggers should be able to come through for us early.
