Monday gave us a very frustrating 1-2 result, with a YRFI overturned after initially being ruled a win due to a ground-rule double. That, at least, feels like a correct process, so we press on today.
I have four MLB NRFI and YRFI picks on Tuesday for the full slate, including one single-team pick.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions & Picks
White Sox vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jonathan Cannon vs. Andrew Abbott
There's a handful of spots today where it's a close call between a single team YRFI and the full game line, with this being one of them.
The Reds are the driving force behind the game's 9.5-run total, as they're implied for about five and a half of those runs. Getting them at better than +200 odds to score in any individual inning in this game is probably a solid bet, much less when they have their (theoretical) best hitters coming to the plate.
Both Matt McClain and Elly De La Cruz are having rough starts to the season, but are both very young and much better players than their current numbers imply. A home matchup against Jonathan Cannon is as good a time as any to turn things around.
Cannon's overall ERA is just over four, but all of his underlying numbers are considerably worse. His xFIP is an ugly 4.92, and it jumps over 5.5 his first time through the order. The hitter friendly confines of Great American Ball Park tend to expose pitchers who have been getting lucky, so let's hope it happens in the first inning.
Rays vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Jose Berrios
The eight run total in this game is fairly neutral for the first inning, so it ultimately comes down to where the runs are distributed.
Both teams tops of the orders have struggled this season, and both pitchers have relatively solid first time through the order splits.
What makes this scary is that both teams have very strong middle of the order hitters, so if any of the early bats can extend the inning it could be trouble.
However, Caesars has a -115 line that's a bit off the market and likely to move, so it's worth grabbing. Most books have the 8.0 game total somewhat juiced to the under, so we probably see the NRFI at a much worse price closer to game time.
Pirates vs. Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Kodai Senga
This is another spot where we the edge between the single team YRFI (on the Mets) and the game line is fairly similar, but books have priced the Mets scoring chances fairly aggressively (+170 or so).
They're the main drivers here, since they're loaded at the top of their order. Juan Soto is currently the worst hitter in their first three based on wRC+ this season, which tells you something.
They're taking on Mitch Keller who has a 4.40 ERA but a 5.18 xERA, so not exactly a matchup to stay away from.
The Pirates have a much tougher matchup with Kodai Senga. However, three of the five earned runs he's given up this season have been during his first time through the order, so the time to get to him is early. It's not the likeliest, but since we're getting even money on the full YRFI it's the better projecting play.
Athletics vs. Dodgers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jeffrey Springs vs. Landon Knack
Yet again, we could take the Dodgers single team YRFI here, given the strength of the top of their lineup and the fact they're implied for more than five runs tonight.
However, I'm projecting a better edge on the game line, since the A's are also very solid at the top. Their first four hitters have a wRC+ of 115 or higher this season, with two of them north of 140.
They're taking on Landon Knack, who has a 5.40 overall ERA and 4.50 first time through the order ERA in a very limited sample.
We're projecting the A's starter as Jeffrey Springs, who has an ERA of 8.40 his first time through the order with a 6.23 xFIP. This is a great bet if he gets the start — but it's officially undecided.
Personally, I'd wait to make this one until an official starter is announced, as an opener or bullpen game probably hurts the YRFI chances.
