I had no article on Wednesday as I had the day off, but we're back in action Thursday.
I've found three picks across the slate on Thursday, mainly in the evening.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 8, 2025
Tigers vs. Rockies Game 1 NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize vs. Kyle Freeland
The Tigers come into Thursday as the No. 4 offense by wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They have some players with fairly extreme platoon splits — both positively and negatively — against southpaws, but overall, they're on the better side of their splits on Thursday.
Hopefully manager A.J. Hinch gets the stronger hitters to the top of Detroit's lineup, though that's not the most comfortable bet since he seems determined to roll out 162 different starting lineups this season.
Either way, we have a 9.5-run total that's been pushed up to 10 at some books.
Additionally, Detroit starter Casey Mize has been good this season, but he's due for some regression. His 2.70 ERA is covering up FIP, xFIP and SEIRA marks over 4.00.
Mize is a low-strikeout pitcher who allows a lot of fly balls and also relies more on breaking pitches than an overpowering fastball.
That's a bad combination for pitching at Coors Field, where the thin air limits the amount of movement on breaking pitches.
Reds vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Nick Lodolo vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Atlanta is taking on lefty Nick Lodolo on Thursday. So far in 2025, the Braves' wRC+ drops more than 30 points when facing southpaws, one of the bigger jumps in the league.
Beyond that, both starters have been solid this season, with Spencer Schwellenbach being especially strong early in games. His first time through the order, he has a 1.69 ERA and 2.48 xFIP.
With this game being in Atlanta instead of Cincinnati, that's enough to create a fairly big edge.
The game total of 8 has already dropped to 7.5 at some books, so get on this one as soon as you can.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Brandon Pfaadt
These are two of the best teams at getting offense from the tops of their orders. Of the eight total hitters expected to bat 1-4, the lowest wRC+ belongs to Mookie Betts at 126 (with the caveat that I'm using Ketel Marte's 2024 numbers since he's missed most of this season).
Anytime Betts is the worst hitter likely to come to the plate in an inning, things are looking good for some offense.
Plus, Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.20 ERA his first time through the order, which should only go up against a team as good as the Dodgers.
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn't a pitcher we typically think to pick on, three of his four earned runs this season have come the first time he's faced a hitter.
He's allowed two YRFIs in seven starts this season, which is still very good — but a surprising stat for a pitcher who's only allowed four runs this season.
