We have a surprisingly full Monday slate of baseball, as every team is in action tonight. This also includes our favorite NRFI pitcher.
I have two total picks for Monday's slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — July 21, 2025
Tigers vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Paul Skenes
Given his inconsistency this season, Jack Flaherty is one of the scarier pitchers I've had to rely on as part of a Paul Skenes NRFI.
With that said, Flaherty's struggles have mostly been deeper in games, with his first-time-through-the-order ERA sitting at 3.14 and his xFIP at 2.92. Those aren't elite numbers for early-game splits, but they're serviceable, especially in this matchup.
The logic behind the Skenes NRFI isn't just his own domination early in games; it's also a function of the Pirates' offense. They rank 28th in wRC+ against righties, and they lack a single above-average hitter in the top three of their lineup (with Andrew McCutchen at exactly league average).
Flaherty should be able to get through that group at least once, making this a solid pick at -155 at BetMGM.
Reds vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jake Irvin vs. Brady Singer
I'm showing an edge for this one only at some smaller books, and I wouldn't take the -115/-120 lines at places like FanDuel and DraftKings.
With that said, we have two below-average pitchers who also struggle early in games, with Brady Singer's first-time-through-the-order xFIP sitting at 4.38 and Irvin's sitting at 5.00.
More importantly, both have bad splits against left-handed hitting, and five of the first six hitters between the two teams will be batting from the left side, counting switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz.
With Nationals Park being slightly friendly to hitters and the weather providing another small offensive boost, that's enough to take this one if you can get the better prices.
