My 19-game NRFI & YRFI winning streak finally ended on Tuesday. Overall, it was a 1-2 day, bringing my season record to 99-69 for just under 26 units of profit.
Let's start another streak with four MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and model predictions for Wednesday, May 22.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Wednesday Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Hunter Brown
Caesars has a reasonably generous YRFI line at -105, with most books in the -120 to -130 range.
Getting an outlier price is the first sign of a good wager.
Most of the value here is driven by the Astros, who take on lefty Tyler Anderson. Houston has posted a 124 wRC+ against southpaws this year. Anderson has a 2.72 ERA coming into the game, but he's been fortunate, with his expected FIP at 4.90 and even higher at 4.93 in his first time through the order.
Houston's Hunter Brown is the opposite, with an ERA in the sevens and underlying metrics in the four to five range. While he hasn't been as bad as his ERA, that's still not exactly good, giving the Angels a reasonable chance to score.
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Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello vs. Ryan Pepiot
This is another bet where I'd only take the line offered at a single book (or, in this case, a family of books with the same odds provider). The -114 NRFI at BetRivers is 15 cents better than anywhere else.
Both offenses boast slightly below-average wRC+ scores against right-handed pitching, and both pitchers have first-time-through-the-order expected FIPs in the mid-threes.
Considering the 7.5-run total, that's enough to show value at -114, but I wouldn't take this anywhere else.
Be sure to keep an eye on the total throughout the day. If it moves up, we could see other books offer a playable price on the NRFI, though my projection would also get slightly worse.
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Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Justin Steele
We missed this one on Tuesday. Both teams waited until the second inning when they scored a combined four runs.
We're trying it again on Wednesday but at a much better price.
The weather isn't as good for offense as Wednesday, but we still show a solid boost for hitters.
We have two left-handed starters on the mound, and both teams hit lefties about 10% better than righties.
Max Fried has also struggled at the start of games this year. His overall ERA is an excellent 3.81, but that jumps to 5.40 his first time through the order. Justin Steele has solid first-time-through-the-order splits, but he has to face the dangerous Atlanta lineup.
Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson vs. Tyler Glasnow
The Dodgers are the best overall offense in baseball and are especially strong at the top, with two of the game's five best hitters, Shoehei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, leading off.
Arizona is the second-best offense against lefties and faces one in Tyler Glasnow on Wednesday.
Glasnow has been great this year with a 2.37 expected FIP that rises slightly his first time through the order, but he has an arduous task against the Snakes.
Of course, most of the value is on the Dodgers' side against Ryne Nelson and his 5.68 first-time-through-the-order ERA.
Books have priced up the Dodgers team-specific YRFI here, but if the game YRFI moves outside my threshold, I'd consider the Dodgers first-inning ML at +200 or better as an alternative.
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